The Denver Broncos‘ fantasy outlook revolves around the greatness of Courtland Sutton, while the Los Angeles Chargers‘ preview evaluates the fantasy football value of a struggling Austin Ekeler.
Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers
- Spread: Chargers -3
- Total: 43
- Broncos implied points: 20
- Chargers implied points: 23
Quarterbacks
Russell Wilson: Since the bye, Wilson has been a top-12 performer in three of four games with a rushing TD in consecutive games. The rushing production for an aging quarterback has been surprisingly consistent (8-plus attempts in four of his past five games), but can he keep rolling?
This is a plus-matchup (fifth-most yards per attempt allowed), and I have him ranked safely inside of my top 15 this week. I want the record to show that I’m concerned moving forward.
Last week against the Houston Texans, Wilson posted his second-worst game as a passer — both in terms of Passer Rating and QBR. That’s a concern, as is the fact that after throwing for multiple scores in four of five games, he’s done it in just two of seven.
Wilson is skating on thin ice, and his fantasy stock could fall through at a moment’s notice. I’m not projecting it to happen this week, but I’m not ruling it out. Be careful.
Justin Herbert: Maybe I’m too committed to my priors, but Herbert is hanging onto a top-10 ranking — barely. Last week was his sixth game this season with under 230 passing yards and his sixth game since the beginning of October with a completion percentage under 60%. Herbert’s last 91 passes over the past two weeks have resulted in just one score and zero gains of over 31 yards.
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I get the concerns. I’m hopeful that WR Joshua Palmer can return to action and give Herbert the secondary option that he has been missing since WR Mike Williams was lost for the season. He was a top-12 QB in eight of 10 games to open this season, and I think he has a very good chance at rediscovering that form against the third-worst defense on a per-pass basis.
I have Herbert ranked as my QB9 ahead of Houston QB C.J. Stroud in this spot.
Running Backs
Javonte Williams: Not only did Williams handle 13 of 18 Bronco RB carries last week, but he also led this backfield in targets, catches, and receiving yards. His role in this offense isn’t a concern to me, but the fact that he only has two finishes this season better than RB20 certainly is.
This isn’t the plus-matchup that it was earlier this season — New England RBs averaged just 3.4 yards per carry last week, and Green Bay RBs averaged just 2.6 YPC against these Chargers in Week 11. Williams is on the outside looking in at my top 20 this week, but I do think he sees enough work to justify starting him as a low-end RB2 in this spot.
Samaje Perine: After consecutive impressive showings, Perine’s stock was on the rise heading into Week 13, but it came crashing back to earth with a three-touch, six-yard performance in Houston.
Perine doesn’t need to be rostered. Last week, he ran a route on 83.3% of his snaps — a usage trend that tells you all you need to know about Denver’s backfield hierarchy. The touch count is never going to overwhelm you, and that creates a low floor that is simply too risky to expose yourself to.
Austin Ekeler: I wish I could give you actionable advice on how to handle this Ekeler situation, but I can’t. Three straight finishes outside of the top 30 are borderline unbelievable, but it’s a fact.
It’s also a fact that acting on that three-game sample size would be a mistake. The versatile skill set in a prime spot is simply too much to ignore, but it would be dishonest of me not to include the red flags that have popped up.
Over the last two games, Ekeler has seen 24 carries for 50 yards, and his longest rush was six yards. He’s only had one game all season with 50-plus receiving yards. And he only has a slight 17-14 edge in routes run over RB Josh Kelley this year.
Worried? Yes. Benching him? Not. A. Chance.
Wide Receivers
Courtland Sutton: All Sutton does is score touchdowns. He has found paydirt in six of his past seven games, but we did get a snapshot of the risk involved last week.
The 45-yard TD was great, but it was his first catch in the game, and it came in the third quarter. If I’m worried about Wilson long-term, it only stands to reason that his top receiver could regress in a significant way, as well.
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But still, he’s caught a touchdown on 18% of his receptions this year. That is compared to a 5.9% mark from 2018 to 2022.
Sutton is a low-end WR2 for me. The scoring equity gives him enough upside to land in starting lineups, but I am building in more risk than most with Wilson, and that results in Sutton’s final projection coming in a touch low.
Jerry Jeudy: He showed us a glimmer of the upside that we attacked this summer with a 41-yard catch last week — he totaled just 10 yards outside of that reception. With only one score this season and no more than three catches in seven of 11 games, starting Jeudy is nothing more than a blind leap of faith.
He’s again ranked outside of my top 40 at the position — not a bold proclamation for a player who has failed to finish inside of that mark just five times.
Keenan Allen: Denver CB Patrick Surtain suffered a knee injury last week, but he was able to return and should be fine for this matchup that could see him spend some time on Los Angeles’ clear top option.
Allen has earned at least nine targets in eight straight games and 11 of 12 this season. The floor ranks among the five best at the position, and in a good matchup when he is away from Surtain, Allen should be just fine.
Most teams prefer to pound the ball with the run game against the Broncos, but the Chargers may be the exception. Allen is a rock-solid start in all formats, as he continues to beat Father Time.
Joshua Palmer: I think this kid is a legit NFL talent — or at least a fantasy asset. He saw at least seven targets in four straight games before the knee injury that landed him on IR and has now sidelined him for five games.
His return is no certainty this week, so keep tabs on this. His availability would mean more to the value of Herbert than anything, but I do think he could be a nice waiver wire add if you’re lacking WR depth and get word that his return is on the horizon.
I’m not playing him this week, but I’m going to be a week early rather than a week late when it comes to scooping him off of waiver wires. Palmer will be on the backend of as many of my playoff rosters as I can manage.
Tight Ends
Donald Parham and Gerald Everett: If you have two, you have none.
If Parham or Everett were to sit, I’d feel good about elevating the remaining option to my top 10, but in weeks in which that’s not the case, either is a tough sell. Last week, Everett held a 39-38 edge in snaps and a 22-20 edge in routes — hardly enough of an advantage to crown him as the favorite fantasy option.
Everett tends to see more targets per route run than Parham between the 20s, but with that 6’8” frame, Parham garners plenty of attention near the end zone.
“Charger TE” is a great profile, but with it being split into two people, I’m not overly interested. Neither checks in as a top-12 play for me this week, and I don’t see that changing as we navigate the final month of the fantasy season.
Should You Start Jared Goff or Russell Wilson?
Jared Goff playing outdoors isn’t ideal, but he does offer a higher floor (multiple TD passes in four straight and at least 23 completions in six of his past seven) than Wilson and gets my support in this decision.
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It’s close — both Wilson and Goff share a tier for me this week — but I’m just less confident in Wilson’s consistency through the air and sustainability on the ground.
Should You Start Cole Kmet or Gerald Everett?
If you can avoid both, I would, but if forced to pick, I lean toward Everett. Yes, he’s splitting snaps with Donald Parham, but he is on the field plenty in a pass-first offense. Cole Kmet is a fine prospect, but considering how successful Justin Fields has been running the ball against the Lions and throwing to DJ Moore in general, I have my doubts about a target ceiling exceeding five in this spot.
Everett gets the nod as a committee member on the offense I project to score more points in Week 14.
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