The Seattle Seahawks‘ fantasy outlook is centered around what we can take away from an impressive Week 13 in Dallas, while the San Francisco 49ers‘ preview is based on MVP front-runner Brock Purdy’s fantasy football value.
Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers
- Spread: 49ers -10.5
- Total: 47
- Seahawks implied points: 13.3
- 49ers implied points: 23.8
Quarterbacks
Geno Smith: It was great to see Smith show out against the Cowboys last Thursday (three touchdown passes on 23 completions) after his 84 completions in the four games prior resulted in just three scores.
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Are you willing to buy into the surprise performance over three months of production that resulted in an average finish of QB19? I’m writing off last week as the aberration and not a new rule — we will see if Smith produces against arguably the best defense in football that allows the third-fewest yards per attempt.
Brock Purdy: The MVP favorite in some spots has turned in three top-six finishes in four weeks since the bye. That’s great. The less great part of that stat is the fact that the outlier performance came against the Seahawks in Week 12 (30 passes netted just 209 yards and a single score).
The 7.0 yards per pass in that game is his second-least efficient day of the season, but much like I’m not buying into a single-game sample for Smith, I’m not doing it here for Purdy. He lit up these ‘Hawks for 330 yards and three scores on 18 completions in the Wild Card win last season, showcasing the type of form that we’ve seen from him recently.
I’m generally of the belief that home/road splits are noisy, but I’m pro-Purdy this week (QB8), so I’m going to casually mention that he’s averaging 31.8% more yards per pass at home than on the road this season.
Running Backs
Kenneth Walker III and Zach Charbonnet: This is a situation to watch as we move through the week, as there is a lack of clarity across the board. Pete Carroll (noted injury optimist) said last week that a Week 14 return for Walker (oblique) was possible while he admitted that Charbonnet’s knee “puffed up pretty crazy” following the loss to Dallas.
If this is a committee situation, I’m not going to have either inside of my top 30 due to the matchup and likely game script. If one plays and the other doesn’t, the featured back will slide into my Flex conversation, but not as anything more than that. Charbonnet has carried 48 times for 154 yards since he saw his role increase, failing to gain 15 yards on any of those rushes.
Hopefully, we get clarity heading into the weekend — with this being a 4:05 p.m. ET kickoff, a lack of definitive news after Friday’s practice will mean not counting on either back and adjusting at the last minute should one be officially ruled out.
Christian McCaffrey: In a tough matchup against Philadelphia, McCaffrey ran for 93 yards, touched the ball 21 times, and finished as the RB7. Is that his floor?
It’s not far from it. McCaffrey has been RB7 or better in nine of 12 games this season, proving to be on the short list of fantasy MVP candidates. He appears as close to unstoppable over 60 minutes as any running back in recent memory, and I doubt that stops against a defense he dominated to the tune of 139 yards and two scores in Week 12.
Wide Receivers
DK Metcalf: Your matchup may have been decided early last week if Metcalf was involved. He took a 73-yard pass to the house on Seattle’s first drive and finished with a massive 6-143-3 day as the Seahawks implemented the “throw to whoever DaRon Bland is covering” strategy.
Predictive or seductive?
That is, can fantasy managers count on Metcalf to be a star they drafted for the final month of the season, or was the Thursday night showcase simply a tease?
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The answer, as you’d guess, lies in the middle. The number of looks is nothing new (eight targets, Weeks 1-12: 8.0 targets per game), and the sky-high ceiling is part of the Metcalf profile. You don’t have to go back too far for meaningful proof of that:
NFC Wild Card at SF:
- 10 catches (40% share)
- 13 targets (38.2% share)
- 136 yards (53.8% share)
- Two touchdowns
Not too shabby, but we can’t act as if the first three months of this season didn’t count. Before the explosion in Dallas, Metcalf was scoring once every 26.7 targets and had only a pair of top-20 finishes on his résumé.
I’m measuring expectations this week (low-end WR2), but regardless of how he shows in this tough matchup, he’ll be ranked higher for Weeks 15-16 (vs PHI, at TEN). It would take a lot for Metcalf to truly pay off his preseason price tag, but a strong finish is very much possible.
If he helps you win a title, he was worth the draft day premium. You’re going to be rewarded for your loyalty.
Tyler Lockett: I understand the name value that comes with Lockett. I understand that premature evaluation is never a good thing and that you’re worried about benching a proven big-play threat the week he goes off. I get all of that.
Blame me if you need to.
Lockett hasn’t had a catch gaining more than 20 yards since mid-October and has turned 20 targets into just 128 yards over his past three games. We haven’t seen splash plays despite consistent looks (7+ targets in five of his past six games), so why would we expect that to change against an elite defense?
I think he’s more likely to repeat his 6.9 fantasy point performance against these 49ers last postseason than Metcalf is his 30.6-point effort. The argument for Lockett is “because I always play him,” and if you’re making decisions under that train of thought, you’ve already lost.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba: The rookie posted a team-best 29% target share last week in Dallas as he continues to show nice development. The ceiling is awfully limited, however, due to Smith’s inconsistencies and the two veteran receivers ahead of him (two top-30 finishes this season), but the increased ability to earn targets has moved him past Chris Godwin and Jerry Jeudy in my ranks.
That is still outside of the top 40, however, and in a tough spot, you can probably do better as you piece together your starting lineup.
Brandon Aiyuk: With a score in all four games since the bye, Aiyuk has proven himself to be the top true receiver in this consistent offense. The target count is never overwhelming due to the low pass count, but with Purdy being among the most efficient distributors of the ball in the league, the targets he does see are worth plenty.
The TD streak isn’t going to last forever. That’s a fact. The connection Aiyuk has with Purdy, however, is real and will keep him inside of my top 15 every week for the remainder of the season.
Deebo Samuel: After scoring three times on seven touches against the Eagles, Samuel reminded us all just how much of a weapon he can be. He’s a near-impossible tackle in the open field, which could result in a third-straight top-10 finish at the position.
Seattle misses tackles at the fourth-most rate per game and has the sixth-lowest opponent aDOT.
Shallow passes and missed tackles, you say? Sign me up! Samuel earned one-third of the targets in the Wild Card win over the Seahawks (133 yards, TD) and should be used plenty in this ideal matchup.
Tight Ends
George Kittle: Kittle has finished inside the top 10 tight ends in five straight games when not facing the Seahawks. That’s great most weeks, but that’s not too helpful when Seattle is back on the schedule again.
In the Week 12 meeting, Kittle was able to turn five targets into just 19 yards, a continuation of the struggles against this defense that we saw in last season’s Wild Card meeting (two targets). We know that Kittle comes with a wide range of outcomes as it is, and this divisional opponent has proven as capable of shutting him down as anyone.
So what do you do? You play Kittle. You married him this summer and promised to start him in sickness and in health.
This is a tough matchup, but volume hasn’t been a major concern of late for him (seven targets per game over his past six), and if you’re projecting that sort of usage, Kittle’s upside is rare for the position.
There’s risk involved, but there’s more upside in this profile, which is enough for me to consider him a lineup lock no matter the matchup.
Should You Start DK Metcalf or Davante Adams?
These two stars are ranked lower than in weeks past for me, but I give the one-spot edge to Davante Adams. Vegas is coming off of their bye, and they entered the off-week trending in the right direction in terms of getting their former All-Pro opportunities (33 targets in his past three games).
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Metcalf had the massive Week 13 on national TV, but he’s largely been a disappointment this season, and one week isn’t enough to change my mind. I still worry about the consistency of Geno Smith, so his range of outcomes remains just as wide as it was entering last week. With Adams having the matchup edge, that is the direction I’d go.
Should You Start Brock Purdy or Josh Dobbs?
Dobbs getting to play with Justin Jefferson for the first time is exciting, but Purdy is in great form and gets to play with elite talent every week! As long as the 49ers are fully healthy, Purdy is a top-10 fantasy option, and that might not be high enough.
I’m intrigued by Dobbs for DFS tournaments, but in a one-QB setting for season-long formats, it’s Purdy, and it’s not all that close for me!
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