The Indianapolis Colts‘ preview details a bounce-back fantasy football RB Zack Moss spot, while the Cincinnati Bengals‘ outlook evaluates their passing game after an impressive Week 13.
Indianapolis Colts at Cincinnati Bengals
- Spread: Colts -2.5
- Total: 40.5
- Colts implied points: 21.5
- Bengals implied points: 19
Quarterbacks
Gardner Minshew: Prior to Week 12, Minshew had one top-15 performance on his 2023 résumé, but he’s now done it in consecutive weeks ahead of a matchup with a Bengals defense that isn’t only on short rest but also allows the second-most yards per pass attempt this season.
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I mentioned Minshew as a QB streamer to target in Week 14, thanks in part to his matchup and in part because of his willingness to force-feed his top target.
If you’re stuck in a must-win spot this week and can’t get Jameis Winston, Minshew is my next favorite option that is widely available.
Running Backs
Jonathan Taylor: With the torn UCL in his thumb requiring surgery, Taylor is expected to miss at least another two weeks, with a return this season not being a certainty.
It should be noted that the Colts didn’t place him on IR — something that theoretically suggests that he could be back before missing the four games that the IR designation requires — but that could be a results-oriented decision as we come down the stretch.
Zack Moss: If you’re getting bent out of shape about Moss giving you just 6.7 half-PPR points last week against the Titans, then you’re not seeing the whole picture.
Yes, we (the fantasy industry, myself included) had much loftier expectations for him with Taylor on the shelf. But if you take a step back, the process was right, and trusting it is the right move down the stretch.
Moss’ role last week was everything you could have possibly asked for.
- 70.2% route participation
- 83.8% of Colts’ RBs scrimmage yards
- 94.4% snap share
- 100% of RB carries
You can give me that profile any day of the week, and I am locking him into my starting lineup. No questions asked. Not a one.
That role is available to Moss again this week — this time against the second-worst yards-per-carry defensive front in the NFL.
Moss is an RB1 this week, and I’m not sorry. I trust the player, and the role the Colts gave him was as good as any in the league. Play Moss.
Joe Mixon: As a Mixon manager, I was vocal in complaining about the early usage of Chase Brown last week — that may have been a bit premature.
While it’s true that the fifth-round rookie was used early and often, it didn’t stop Mixon from outsourcing every running back last week, courtesy of a pair of touchdowns and a season-high six receptions (117 total yards).
I think it’s possible that Jake Browning played the best game of his career last week, which certainly fueled the Mixon explosion. But even if you dial back some of that offensive success, the combination of goal-line work and volume puts Mixon into starting lineups every single week.
I don’t mind the thought process in adding Brown (nine carries for 61 yards on Monday night), but I think you’re getting overly aggressive if you think he’s a Flex option this week.
Wide Receivers
Michael Pittman Jr.: Pittman’s walk-off touchdown against the Titans was the perfect way to end yet another game of elite usage.
For the fifth game in a row, Indy’s ace receiver hauled in at least eight passes — a level of volume that has me not even worrying that he doesn’t have a single 25-yard catch over that stretch. Pittman has been a top-24 receiver in each of his past seven games and is emerging as a top-10 play in terms of consistency.
My belief in Pittman actually stems from this run game getting on track, something I think is likely to occur this week. When defenses allocate resources to slow the ground game, Pittman finds himself in single coverage situations.
Minshew is not the least bit shy about weighing down his WR1 with as many targets as he can handle. Here’s a list of Pittman’s target share percentages over the past five games:
- Week 8 vs. NO: 34.2% target share
- Week 9 at CAR: 33.3%
- Week 10 vs. NE: 46.2%
- Week 12 vs. TB: 32.5%
- Week 13 at TEN: 39.0%
Josh Downs: I was all in on Downs last week, and while “the pass catcher playing alongside Pittman” was the right idea, I was backing the wrong horse.
Get it? Colt. Horse. You guys are lucky you don’t have to pay for word art as fine as this.
I stand by the idea, and I’m holding firm on my ranking of Downs as the WR2 in this offense, even if his three-catch, 14-yard dud last week failed to deliver on that idea. He falls just outside of my top 30 at the position, ahead of options that I think carry even more risk in Gabe Davis, Tyler Lockett, and George Pickens.
MORE: Is Alec Pierce Worth Picking Up Off the Waiver Wire in Week 14?
Alec Pierce hauled in a 36-yard score on Indianapolis’ first drive and recorded his first career 100-yard game. How did he do it?
Well, playing 70 of 71 snaps certainly helped (Downs: 48). His overall role wasn’t drastically different from past weeks, and his 14.6% target share isn’t enough to inspire a great deal of confidence.
Pierce is a luxury add if you have space at the end of your roster at best, not someone I’m moving mountains for or making excuses to play — even against a Bengals defense that is routinely challenged downfield (DFS flier??).
Ja’Marr Chase: Safe to say that I didn’t see an 11-catch, 149-yard game coming on Monday night with Browning under center. The 76-yard touchdown obviously elevated a strong fantasy day into an elite one, but it was his usage that impressed me.
Tip of the cap to the Bengals’ coaching staff. They didn’t try to fit a Browning peg into a Burrow hole; they revamped the offense, and it started with their WR1.
Chase’s aDOT dropped by 39.4% from his rate through 12 weeks, a conscience shift in play-calling that allowed for this big day to be possible.
Do I think that Chase accounts for 34.4% of Browning’s completions this week? Probably not. But given that this staff is willing to adjust on the fly, I’m far more confident in ranking Chase as a safe WR2 this week than I was seven days ago.
That said, don’t lose track that the floor is low. He has as many finishes outside of the top 30 as he does in the top 10 this season (five), but that’s not enough of a concern to consider sitting this game-breaker.
Tee Higgins: In his return to action after missing three games, Higgins caught all three of his targets for 36 yards against the Jaguars. It’s unlikely that you started him last week, so I’m counting Week 13 as a win. He was able to make it through without a setback and got in valuable reps with his new signal-caller.
I’m still not comfortable in labeling Higgins a fantasy starter, but last week was a step in the right direction. If you want to use him as DFS leverage, you have my blessing — the Colts own the second-lowest blitz rate in the league, which could afford Browning time to get non-Chase Bengals involved.
Higgins is my WR36 this week and trending in the right direction as we near make-or-break time in most fantasy leagues.
Tight Ends
Chigoziem Okonkwo: With 107 yards over the past two weeks, Okonkwo is trending toward the hope we had for him this preseason that he failed to show through his first 10 games this season (20.6 yards per game).
He has nine games this season with at least three catches. And while that’s not the most overwhelming stat you’ve ever read, the athletic profile makes those opportunities more valuable than catches for the other tight ends currently available on your waiver wire (39-yard catch against the Colts last week and a 25-yarder against the Panthers the week before).
Okonkwo is used downfield more often than most TEs, which is where most offenses elect to challenge the Bengals (league-high opponent aDOT). If you’re looking for a TE streamer this week, the upside of Okonkwo trumps the other options.
Does he carry a low floor? He does — and so do about 25 starting TEs in this league.
Should You Start Cooper Kupp or Michael Pittman?
At this point, it has to be Pittman. I don’t want to say his consistent volume reminds me of peak Los Angeles Rams WR Cooper Kupp, but it’s not far off of it. Because I think their run game should have success this week, Pittman figures to find himself in advantageous spots down the field consistently.
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For Kupp, I’m worried, and a brutal matchup doesn’t help. With RB Kyren Williams back, Los Angeles wants to run the ball and shorten games. This isn’t ideal for a volume-oriented fantasy option like Kupp. With them facing arguably the best defense in the league, I think you can side with the elevated floor of Pittman and feel good about it.
Should You Start Gus Edwards or Zack Moss?
Baltimore Ravens RB Gus Edwards relies on touchdowns, and that can be a risky proposition. My fear for him is that with Baltimore coming off their bye, there is increased creativity when it comes to the usage of RB Keaton Mitchell and TE Isaiah Likely. If that is the case, food comes off Edwards’ plate and brings his floor scenarios front and center.
Moss received every Colts RB carry a week ago and is essentially used like this team used peak Jonathan Taylor. This is a great bounce-back spot for a player with one of the top-five roles in the sport. Moss is a fantasy star who cannot be benched in any format this week — even after a disappointing Week 13.
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