Heading into Week 14 of the 2023 NFL season, one of the most fascinating divisions in terms of the playoff picture is the NFC South. The Atlanta Falcons, New Orleans Saints, and Tampa Bay Buccaneers are all within one game of each other. As things stand, the range of outcomes for the NFC South includes scenarios where the division provides one sub-.500 division winners or even three total playoff teams.
With the assistance of the free PFN NFL playoff predictor, let’s examine some of the scenarios that we could see for the division in Week 14.
1 p.m. ET Games Update
Saints (6-7) defeated Panthers (1-12)
Buccaneers (6-7) defeated Falcons (6-7)
Tampa Bay now leads the NFC South after Week 14
Bears (5-8) defeated Lions (9-4)
Ravens (10-3) defeated Rams (6-7)
4 p.m. ET Games Update
49ers (10-3) defeated Seahawks (6-7)
Vikings (7-6) defeated Raiders (5-8)
What Are the Playoff Scenarios for the NFC South in Week 14?
What makes the playoff scenarios for the NFC South so intriguing entering Week 14 is that we could see all three teams tied at 6-7 when the dust settles. The way the NFL schedule has unfolded, the four teams in the division all face each other, but the main focus will be on the battle between the Falcons and Buccaneers in Atlanta.
MORE: NFL Coaches on the Hot Seat
A week after the Mercedes-Benz Stadium hosted a playoff-defining college football matchup, the home team could make a huge statement on their path to the NFL postseason. A win for the Falcons would see them move two games ahead of the Buccaneers in the standings with four left to play.
However, in real terms, the Falcons would be 2.25 games ahead of the Buccaneers with four to play if they can sweep the head-to-head series after a 16-13 victory in Tampa back in Week 7. If the Saints lose to the Carolina Panthers, the Falcons would completely control their destiny down the stretch.
Atlanta would be two games ahead in the win-loss column, and they would have a huge advantage in terms of the NFL playoff tiebreakers. They would have the sweep over the Buccaneers and be sitting 4-0 in the division with the potential to lock the tiebreakers up against the Panthers in Week 15.
However, a loss for the Falcons drops them from their spot as the fourth seed right now and down to the 10th spot in the NFC standings. We know that the Saints cannot jump them this week, based on the Falcons’ 24-15 victory in Week 12. However, the Falcons would lose all the playoff tiebreaker scenarios, with the other teams currently having six wins.
When it comes to the Saints, their best outcome at the end of Week 14 is 10th in the NFC standings. Their woeful conference record would keep them below the other teams currently with six wins, but for New Orleans, a win this week is part of a bigger picture of just staying right in the middle of the race.
For New Orleans, a 5-8 record would not be terminal by any means, but it leaves them with a lot to overturn. They would need to beat the Falcons and Buccaneers in the final two weeks just to get back on even footing in head-to-head tiebreakers.
Nothing can be decided in the division in Week 14, but the results this week could very well have a huge impact in five weeks when we are looking at win-loss records and playoff tiebreakers. For all three teams, Week 14 will feel like must-win territory — even if it is not a case of win or get eliminated mathematically.
What Are the Playoff Chances for the Falcons, Buccaneers, and Saints?
Since the Falcons are top of the division entering Week 14, it isn’t a surprise that the ESPN Football Power Index (FPI) has the NFC South in its hands. Atlanta has a 59.8% chance of making the playoffs and a 57.6% chance of winning the division.
Meanwhile, the Buccaneers are at a 26.2% chance of making the playoffs and a 21.1% chance of winning the division. The Saints sit at 27.4% and 21.3% chance, respectively. Of the eight divisions in the NFL, the South is deemed to be the most balanced entering Week 14.
ESPN’s FPI is certainly not bullish on more than one NFC South team making the playoffs in 2023. There is still an outside chance that if they all win their games that are not against each other, we could see all three make the playoffs. But still, a lot would need to go in favor of the three teams for this to happen.
There is a path that can see all three of the NFC South teams in contention get to nine wins. In the current NFC playoff picture, that could be enough — there is certainly no guarantee that the Minnesota Vikings, Green Bay Packers, Los Angeles Rams, or Seattle Seahawks get to nine wins, themselves.
What a turn it would be if the NFC South sent three representatives to this season’s playoffs.
Want to predict the rest of the 2023 season with our FREE NFL Playoff Predictor? Looking for the most up-to-date NFL standings? What about a breakdown of team depth charts or the NFL schedule? Pro Football Network has you covered with that and more!