The Los Angeles Rams appeared to be falling out of the playoff picture when they lost three straight games heading into their Week 10 bye. But Sean McVay’s team has since rebounded, as three consecutive victories have the Rams back at 6-6 and re-inserted LA into the postseason conversation.
With the help of PFN’s Free Playoff Predictor, let’s sort through the Rams’ playoff chances and what they can accomplish in Week 14 when facing the Baltimore Ravens.
Week 14 Update
Ravens (10-3) defeated Rams (6-7)
49ers (10-3) defeated Seahawks (6-7)
Vikings (7-6) defeated Raiders (5-8)
Buccaneers (6-7) defeated Falcons (6-7)
Saints (6-7) defeated Panthers (1-12)
Bears (5-8) defeated Lions (9-4)
Cowboys (10-3) defeated Eagles (10-3)
What Are the Los Angeles Rams’ Playoff Chances Entering Week 14?
While the Rams wouldn’t be in the postseason if the season ended today, they still have a decent shot of entering the dance. ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) gives LA a 43.8% of making the playoffs.
MORE: Los Angeles Rams Depth Chart
Whichever team loses the NFC East — the Philadelphia Eagles or the Dallas Cowboys — will almost surely claim the No. 5 seed as the NFC’s top Wild Card entrant. That means the Rams are competing with the Green Bay Packers, Minnesota Vikings, Seattle Seahawks, and the NFC South losers for the fifth and sixth slots.
FPI gives the Packers (67.8%) the best playoff chances among that group, while the Vikings’ odds (49.3%) are roughly in line with the Rams’. The Seahawks are at 26%, while no NFC South team has a greater than 5% chance of earning a Wild Card berth.
The Rams’ Week 14 Playoff Scenarios
A win over the Ravens on Sunday has to be their first priority for the Rams. Los Angeles is a 7.5-point road underdog, but if the Rams can pull off a victory, their playoff chances will increase to roughly 75%.
And that’s just in a vacuum, without considering the results of other games around the NFC that could affect LA’s postseason path.
In the Rams’ best-case scenario for Week 14, the Vikings lose to the Las Vegas Raiders, the Seahawks fall to the San Francisco 49ers, and the Packers get upset by the Giants on Monday night.
If everything falls Los Angeles’ way, its odds will rise to 82% or so. The club would exit Week 14 as the No. 6 seed in the NFC playoff picture, while the Vikings would be in the seventh spot.
How about the other side of the coin? In a vacuum, a loss to the Ravens won’t hinder the Rams’ playoff chances by all that much, as their odds would only drop to 42%. If Minnesota, Seattle, and Green Bay win on top of an LA loss, the Rams’ chances will slip to one in four.
Can the Rams Still Win the NFC West?
Technically, the Rams still have a shot at the NFC West crown. They’re three games back on the 49ers with five games remaining, so it’s not impossible.
But it’s not going to happen.
Even if Los Angeles won its next four games and San Francisco went 0-4, the Niners could still capture the division title when the two teams face each other in the regular-season finale.
To win the NFC West, the Rams would have to win out, and the 49ers would have to lose out. It’s an improbable scenario, leading to FPI giving San Francisco a 99.1% chance of sitting atop the division at season’s end.
A Wild Card berth is the only realistic playoff path for the Rams, but that’s a better outcome than most projected for Los Angeles heading into the 2023 campaign.
Want to predict the rest of the 2023 season with our FREE NFL Playoff Predictor? Looking for the most up-to-date NFL standings? What about a breakdown of team depth charts or the NFL schedule? Pro Football Network has you covered with that and more!