The first slate of NFL games to start the month of December eliminated a whopping 53.2% of survivor-league players according to survivorgrid.com data, due to both the Pittsburgh Steelers and Jacksonville Jaguars getting upset in Week 13.
If you are still reading this article and managed to avoid the carnage of last week, then that likely means you are still in contention for bringing home the championship.
It’s time to dig in and take a look at my picks and strategies for your survivor league heading into Week 14.
NFL Survivor Picks Strategy for Week 14
If making it to December in your survivor league wasn’t already tough enough, then can I interest you in removing two teams from this week’s slate to help make it a tougher challenge?
Unfortunately for the victims of the two major upsets who picked the Jags or Steelers last week, they watched their hopes of a title vanquish before their eyes in Week 13. Ouch.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Tennessee Titans, Detroit Lions, Dallas Cowboys, Cleveland Browns, San Francisco 49ers, Baltimore Ravens, Buffalo Bills, Kansas City Chiefs, Miami Dolphins, Los Angeles Rams, Seattle Seahawks, and Los Angeles Chargers have been the most popular picks through the first 13 weeks of the season and will make selecting a winner over the final five weeks of the 2023 NFL season an even tougher challenge.
As mentioned in previous entries, I don’t have any concrete rules when selecting games, but I do have some general guidelines to follow:
- Avoid divisional games
- Avoid picking road teams
- Avoid games with bad weather in the forecast
As we move into December, winter weather will start playing a much bigger role in which direction we would like to go for our weekly selection.
As previously mentioned, some of the biggest favorites over the last 13 weeks have been the Ravens, Bills, Chiefs, 49ers, Dolphins, Rams, Seahawks, Chargers, Browns, Titans, Bucs, and Cowboys. This means we can’t turn to the likes of a handful of Super Bowl contenders over the final month of the season.
Since these were the most selected teams each week by survivor league players (according to survivorgrid.com data), I will be excluding them from my selection process in the strategy section of this weekly article moving forward in an attempt to best simulate your survivor scenario situation each week.
If you have any additional survivor questions specific to your league, don’t hesitate to follow me on Twitter @DerekTateNFL to send me a message, or join our Discord channel so we can talk on that platform.
Teams No Longer Available To Select
Week 1: Baltimore Ravens (Selected by 32% of survivor league teams)
Week 2: Buffalo Bills (Selected by 26% of teams)
Week 3: Kansas City Chiefs (Selected by 21% of teams)
Week 4: San Francisco 49ers (Selected by 31% of teams)
Week 5: Miami Dolphins (Selected by 39% of teams)
Week 6: Los Angeles Rams (Selected by 17% of teams)
Week 7: Seattle Seahawks (Selected by 55% of teams)
Week 8: Los Angeles Chargers (Selected by 35% of teams)
Week 9: Cleveland Browns (Selected by 54% of teams)
Week 10: Dallas Cowboys (Selected by 42% of teams)
Week 11: Detroit Lions (Selected by 17% of teams)
Week 12: Tennessee Titans (Selected by 24% of teams)
Week 13: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Selected by 21% of teams)
This is where identifying teams who aren’t necessarily the biggest favorites of the week can strongly benefit you as we move into the holiday season — especially on a week in December when six teams will be on a bye.
For now, though, we still have the Philadelphia Eagles and Jacksonville Jaguars available, who could be crucial to rely on over the final month of the 2023 NFL season.
Strategy 1
Week 14: Houston Texans (@ NYJ)
Week 15: New Orleans Saints (vs. NYG)
Week 16: Jacksonville Jaguars (@ TB)
Week 17: Philadelphia Eagles (vs. ARI)
Top teams still available: MIN
Strategy 2
Week 14: Pittsburgh Steelers (vs. NE)
Week 15: Houston Texans (@ TEN)
Week 16: Philadelphia Eagles (vs. NYG)
Week 17: Jacksonville Jaguars (vs. CAR)
Top teams still available: MIN
It’s always important to keep updating your strategy once we get new information. For example, if you like to simply trail a bad team to play against every week, I suggest pivoting to the Carolina Panthers, New York Giants, New York Jets, and New England Patriots.
Chalk Picks
Through the first 13 weeks of the NFL season, I’ve gone 21-5 with my chalk selections, which includes a 1-1 performance last week that saw the Jags potentially lose their franchise quarterback in an upset loss to the Cincinnati Bengals.
Let’s take a look at my favorite chalk selections heading into Week 14.
Houston Texans (@ NYJ)
The New York Jets have officially run out of ideas at the quarterback position. The Tim Boyle experience didn’t last two full games before the team turned to journeyman signal-caller Trevor Siemian, whose performance off the bench generated just 66 yards through the air to go with three sacks and three fumbles against the Atlanta Falcons.
MORE: PFN’s FREE NFL Playoff Predictor
To call the New York offense a complete mess feels like an understatement, which bodes very well for a Houston Texans team that is rallying behind excellent rookie QB C.J. Stroud. The Ohio State product has thrown for 3,540 yards and 20 scores this season, which has the Texans positioned for a potential postseason run.
Sure, the Jets’ defense is still formidable, but Stroud should be able to produce enough points to overwhelm the leaderless Jets offense in Week 14.
Miami Dolphins (vs. TEN)
The Tennessee Titans have shown signs of life the past two weeks with back-to-back vintage performances from RB Derrick Henry. Still, the Titans’ defense is battling, despite the team’s disappointing results throughout the 2023 campaign.
Unfortunately, Tennessee will be facing off against a Dolphins offense that has its eyes set on trying to secure the top seed in the AFC. WR Tyreek Hill is making a real play for league MVP with his 93 receptions for 1,481 yards and 12 scores through 12 games this season.
In addition, Hill has posted three straight games with 100-plus receiving yards and a score and faces off against a secondary unit that has given up a handful of big performances through the air this season.
Expect the Dolphins’ offense to see plenty of success through the air in Week 14, which could negate the impact of Henry on the ground and consequently force rookie QB Will Levis to produce through the air against an improved secondary, which I don’t see happening.
Contrarian Pick
New Orleans Saints (vs. CAR)
The Saints have easily been one of the most frustrating teams to trust throughout this year. The inconsistent play QB Derek Car has produced has led to this team registering some impressive wins and equally head-scratching losses.
Unfortunately, Carr suffered both a rib injury and a concussion against the Detroit Lions on Sunday, which means another inconsistent quarterback, Jameis Winston, may get the starting nod under center against the Panthers.
Fortunately, the Panthers didn’t look a whole lot better after firing HC Frank Reich, which makes this an ideal situation for the Saints to pick up a crucial win against a struggling opponent to stay in the thick of the divisional race in the NFC South.
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