And down the stretch, we go. Five weeks left in the regular season and almost everyone is still alive for a playoff spot. We won’t promise another 4-0 best bets slate like last week in this column, but we still have a good slate to choose from.
So, let’s dive into my NFL Week 14 predictions and picks against the spread.
NFL Week 14 Predictions and Picks Against the Spread
All odds are from FanDuel Sportsbook.
New England Patriots vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Prediction
- Spread
Steelers -6 - Moneyline
Patriots +240, Steelers -295 - Total
30.5
It’ll come as no surprise that it took me about 30 seconds after lines were posted to take the under here. I grabbed it at 32 and would still take it at this 30.5 number, which despite being tied for the sixth-lowest total over the last 40 years is still too high.
I wrote last week, in taking the Patriots team total under, that they had scored 13 total points in the previous two games. That number is still 13 over three games after a 6-0 shutout loss to the Los Angeles Chargers. The Pats have somehow fallen below the awful New York Giants offense as the worst in football at 12.3 points per game.
The Patriots’ defense, however, has been solid, holding opponents to a total of 26 points over the same three games, and New England hasn’t allowed more than 20 since facing the Miami offense five weeks ago. Now they face a Steelers team who just lost its starting QB and were a mess last week against a bad Arizona Cardinals team. Bailey Zappe vs. Mitch Trubisky. The number can’t be low enough.
Pick: Under 30.5 — Best Bet
Los Angeles Rams vs. Baltimore Ravens Prediction
- Spread
Ravens -7.5 - Moneyline
Rams +265, Ravens -330 - Total
40.5
The Ravens are solid and may be the best team in the AFC, but this is too many points against a rising Rams team.
Since the bye, the Rams have been a different team, finishing off a sweep of the Seattle Seahawks and running all over the Cardinals and Cleveland Browns. They now find themselves in the thick of the playoff race and are getting more than a TD here.
Yes, the Ravens have blowout potential as we have seen, but not in the last few weeks against the Browns, Cincinnati Bengals, and Chargers.
Pick: Rams +7.5
Carolina Panthers vs. New Orleans Saints Prediction
- Spread
Saints -5.5 - Moneyline
Panthers +176, Saints -210 - Total
37.5
I’m not laying 5.5 with the way the Saints are fading, and nothing about the Panthers excites me as they’re 2-8-2 against the number.
This was a three-point game back in September, and Derek Carr likely won’t play, so I lean toward the Panthers plus the points, but that’s more like a two mph wind making me lean.
Pick: Pass
Indianapolis Colts vs. Cincinnati Bengals Prediction
- Spread
Colts -1.5 - Moneyline
Colts -112, Bengals -104 - Total
39.5
Keep giving me the Colts and short lines. I hit this last week in Tennessee and will take them again this week in Cincy.
It was a nice win for the Bengals and backup QB Jake Browning last week, but I am not sure they pull that off if Christian Kirk and Trevor Lawrence don’t get injured.
The Colts are red-hot winners of four straight. Yes, those opponents have been subpar, but they keep winning, so I’ll keep taking them.
Pick: Colts ML
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Cleveland Browns Prediction
- Spread
Browns -3 - Moneyline
Jaguars +148, Browns -176 - Total
30.5
This game is hard to pick without knowing the QB for Jacksonville. With Lawrence, this is probably an even spread or slight Jags favorite, but we don’t know his status.
The Browns just put up a dud versus the Rams, which matches their complete inconsistency this season. Just when you think they are good after a road win in Baltimore and a close win versus Pittsburgh, they lose to the Denver Broncos and Rams. I will be sitting this one out.
Pick: Pass
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Atlanta Falcons Prediction
- Spread
Falcons -2.5 - Moneyline
Buccaneers +116, Falcons -136 - Total
39.5
By rule, someone has to win the NFC South. No matter what. This game will go a long way to deciding it, but I have no clue who. The Bucs have not scored more than 21 in a month, and Atlanta just scrapped by the New York Jets 13-8. I don’t see many points in this one, so I will take the under.
Pick: Under 39.5
Detroit Lions vs. Chicago Bears Prediction
- Spread
Lions -3 - Moneyline
Lions -168, Bears +142 - Total
40.5
I don’t want to do this, but I am going to take the Bears here. They dominated the Lions for 3.5 quarters when they met before Thanksgiving, and then they gave up the lead, but they looked great defensively against the Minnesota Vikings before their bye last week.
The Lions have shown some flaws, starting with the Bears game and continuing through the Thanksgiving loss to the Green Bay Packers and last week’s escape against the Saints.
Chicago isn’t great, and I am not picking them to win, but I am asking them just to cover the three at home.
Pick: Bears +3
Houston Texans vs. New York Jets Prediction
- Spread
Texans -6.5 - Moneyline
Texans -270, Jets +220 - Total
32.5
Rinse, repeat. Why mess with a good thing?
The Jets’ offense, much like the Giants’ and Patriots’, stinks. The last time they scored two offensive TDs in a game, we had eight teams still fighting for the World Series. In 24 quarters since their bye, they have two TOTAL offensive TDs, one was a dump-off 50-yard TD, and one was in garbage time against the Miami Dolphins’ third-string defense.
Tim Boyle, cut? Zach Wilson, maybe doesn’t want to play? Brett Rypien, off of someone else’s practice squad? Sure.
If you read this column weekly, you know what to do.
Pick: Jets team total under 14.5 (-135) — Best Bet
Seattle Seahawks vs. San Francisco 49ers Prediction
- Spread
49ers -10.5 - Moneyline
Seahawks +420, 49ers -560 - Total
46.5
I think we know who the best team in the NFC — and maybe the NFL — is. In nine games with Deebo Samuel and Trent Williams healthy, the Niners are 9-0 and winning by an average of over 20 PPG. All but one have been double-digit wins, and the one that wasn’t was due to a last-minute FG that Rams head coach Sean McVay decided to kick (it covered the spread BTW).
San Fran won the matchup by 18 two weeks ago in Seattle. The Niners have looked even better since then. I can’t say the same for the Seahawks.
Pick: 49ers -10 (-125) — Best Bet
Minnesota Vikings vs. Las Vegas Raiders Prediction
- Spread
Vikings -3 - Moneyline
Vikings -164, Raiders +138 - Total
40.5
Outside of putting up 30 on the Giants, the Raiders haven’t topped 21 points all season. The last time we saw the Vikings, Joshua Dobbs was throwing to the wrong team all night and they had 10 points against the Bears. Justin Jefferson should be back, but I still don’t expect a lot of points here.
Pick: Under 40.5
Denver Broncos vs. Los Angeles Chargers Prediction
- Spread
Chargers -2.5 - Moneyline
Broncos +130, Chargers -154 - Total
43.5
The Broncos are one pass away from a six-game winning streak and from being one game behind the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC West, but that Russell Wilson pass was intercepted in the end zone, ending the streak.
They are still playing some of the best football in the league and should be favored here in my opinion. Brandon Staley and the Chargers stayed on life support with a 6-0 win against the woeful Patriots team, a win that felt more like a loss.
Denver is the better team right now and should not only beat the Chargers but potentially put an end to Staley’s tenure in LA.
Pick: Broncos +3 (-124) Best Bet
Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs Prediction
- Spread
Chiefs -2.5 - Moneyline
Bills +118, Chiefs -138 - Total
47.5
This might be the most intriguing and difficult game of the week to pick.
On one hand, the Chiefs should be the better team. On the other hand, the Bills should be much better than they are.
If the Chiefs continue to struggle as they have for all but two quarters (vs. Raiders) of the last three games, the Bills might very well go in there, steal one, and revive their playoff hopes against fading AFC teams. But I am not ready to commit to this play, as I do not trust the Bills to figure out their turnover woes and the Chiefs are more than capable of figuring it out. This will be more fun to watch than bet.
Pick: Pass
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Dallas Cowboys Prediction
- Spread
Cowboys -3.5 - Moneyline
Eagles +146, Cowboys -174 - Total
52.5
The Eagles got smacked around at home by the Niners, and the Cowboys continued to roll, so we have the ‘Boys favored by 3.5. Makes sense, but the old adage of “I’ll believe it when I see it” is in play with the Cowboys here.
Much like the Dolphins over in the AFC, the Cowboys have only beaten up bad teams, while the Eagles have proven time and time again (except for last week) that they are up for the big time. I am going to take the nice 3.5 here as the Eagles put away the division.
Pick: Eagles +3.5
Tennessee Titans vs. Miami Dolphins Prediction
- Spread
Dolphins -13.5 - Moneyline
Titans +610, Dolphins -900 - Total
47
If we know anything, it’s that the Dolphins dominate bad football teams and score at will. The team total is 30.5, a number Miami has cleared in seven of their nine wins. Tennessee allowed 31 to Gardner Minshew II and the Colts. What will Tua Tagovailoa and Tyreek Hill do?
Pick: Dolphins team total over 30.5
Green Bay Packers vs. New York Giants Prediction
- Spread
Packers -6.5 - Moneyline
Packers -330, Giants +260 - Total
37.5
The Packers have not only won four in a row to get back into the playoff race, but they’ve done it against the Chiefs, Lions, and both L.A. teams. They don’t play a team with a winning record for the rest of the season. Can you say playoffs?
Step 1 is to beat a Giants team that won’t be in the postseason but won two in a row heading into its bye. The line is about where it should be, but the Packers should continue their great play and win this one going away.
Pick: Packers -6.5
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