The Cincinnati Bengals pulled off the second-biggest upset of the season last night with their win against the Jacksonville Jaguars. However, the biggest storyline coming out of Monday Night Football is the injury to Trevor Lawrence, which could have major implications on the AFC South race.
How Trevor Lawrence’s Injury Impacts the AFC South Odds
With 5:40 remaining in the fourth quarter, a Jaguars teammate accidentally stepped on Lawrence’s ankle as he went down for a sack.
#Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence went down after getting his lower leg stepped on and rolling over on it. Play has been stopped as he gets checked out on the field. pic.twitter.com/P2StOBxRFF
— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) December 5, 2023
It was reported after the game that Lawrence was diagnosed with a sprained ankle and that he will undergo an MRI on today. While we don’t know how long Lawrence will be out, his injury certainly has shaken up the AFC South standings and odds to win the division.
Going into Week 13, the Jaguars had a two-game lead over both the Houston Texans and Indianapolis Colts in the AFC South. Now, that lead is down to one, as both Houston and Indianapolis won this past week.
At BetMGM, the Jaguars were -1200 to win the division while the Texans were +400 and the Colts +500 going into this past weekend. However, after Week 13, we’ve seen a noticeable shift in the division odds.
All odds are from BetMGM.
- Jacksonville Jaguars (-250)
- Houston Texans (+400)
- Indianapolis Colts (+500)
Although the Jaguars’ odds were severely impacted by Lawrence’s injury, they’re still the odds-on favorites to win the AFC South, despite the uncertainty around their franchise quarterback and only having a one-game lead in the division.
Currently, the Jaguars would win the tiebreaker over both teams, as they swept the Colts in their two head-to-head matchups this season.
MORE: PFN’s FREE NFL Playoff Predictor
With the Texans, given the even split in their season series, Jacksonville currently has the advantage with their 4-1 record in the division, compared to the Texans at 1-2.
Houston, however, with three AFC South matchups remaining, has a chance to match their division record if they go 3-0 in those games and the Jaguars lose to the Titans in Week 18. Then, the tiebreaker will be determined by AFC record, where Houston would have the edge in this scenario.
How Does Lawrence’s Injury Impact the Jaguars’ Super Bowl Odds?
While the Jaguars are still likely to make the playoffs, regardless of Lawrence’s status for the rest of the season, their Super Bowl odds increased dramatically after Monday night.
After last night’s game, the Jaguars’ Super Bowl odds moved from +1000 to +2000 at DraftKings Sportsbook. Other sportsbooks such as FanDuel and ESPN BET made slightly bigger adjustments, with each of them now giving Jacksonville +2200 odds to win the Super Bowl.
We’ll provide updates on further odds shifts once we get more information on Lawrence’s injury. If you’re a Jaguars fan reading this, here is some positive news for you — Doug Pederson has won a Super Bowl with a backup QB before.
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