Cincinnati Bengals Draft Scenarios: What Are the Chances of Getting a Top-5 Pick?

On Wednesday, we explored possible postseason paths for the Cincinnati Bengals, who are 5-6 and sit one game out of the seventh and final AFC playoff spot.

Those playoff scenarios mostly involved winning out to go 11-6, although no 10-7 team has ever failed to make the playoffs since the NFL went to the 17-game schedule in 2021.

But what if things go completely the other way? What if the Bengals fail to win another game with Joe Burrow out for the year with a wrist injury and a defense that ranks among the league’s worst in many metrics and main statistics?

How high of a draft pick could the Bengals reasonably expect to get if they finish 5-12?

What Are the Chances the Bengals Get a Top-5 Pick?

It’s a weird dynamic for fans of the Bengals, many of whom probably can’t bring themselves to openly root against the team during the three hours they are playing. But for the other 165 hours in a week, they find themselves hoping for the highest draft pick possible to help bolster a roster that might be just a little too Burrow-reliant.

And Burrow is the key piece here. There’s a belief that the Bengals can be right back in the playoffs and Super Bowl conversation next year simply by inserting the variable of a healthy Burrow.

It’s not as though the team will be facing a two-to-three-year rebuild if it craters to 5-12. However, ending the season on a nine-game losing streak certainly could cloud the culture Zac Taylor has built and cause some doubt to creep into the locker room.

But those are hypothetical intangibles, and we’re here to talk about math.

Using the PFN’s NFL Playoff Predictor, I marked the Bengals for losses in each remaining game and then hit the simulate button to run results for the other 86 games remaining on the NFL schedule.

After running dozens of simulations where the Bengals lose out, their average draft spot was 5.8. The highest they picked was fourth, and the lowest was eighth. However, those numbers come with a caveat.

On the latest episode of the PFN #Bengal Podcast, the time has come to turn an eye to 2024.@DallasDRobinson and I assign percentage chances of each pending FA returning and debate possible cap cuts.

Plus our MNF predictions and weekend best bets:https://t.co/bMCMkub1za

— Jay Morrison (@ByJayMorrison) November 29, 2023

In every single simulation, the Bengals finished tied with at least one other team at 5-12.

The tiebreaker for the NFL Draft is strength of schedule (the combined winning percentage of all of your opponents). Among tied teams, the one with the lowest strength of schedule number picks first.

Based on 2022 results, the Bengals came into the season with one of the hardest schedules in the league, and just as that has helped lead to the 5-6 start, it could bite them again come draft time because their current strength of schedule number is .552.

MORE: Cincinnati Bengals Depth Chart

Only three teams have a tougher strength of schedule, and the Steelers (.561), Browns (.556), and Chiefs (.556) are not going to be involved in a tiebreaker procedure for a top-10 pick in the draft.

The teams most often showing up in the bottom six during the simulations have lower strength of schedules and, therefore, would beat the Bengals in any tiebreaker.

They include:

• Patriots (.544)
• Panthers (.537)
• Cardinals (.533)
• Bears (.456)
• Giants (.474)
• Commanders (.489)

Some people might look at those numbers and think that with six games and 35 percent of the schedule remaining, a lot can change.

But the key to remember is that with the way the NFL schedule is structured — with each team in a division having only three unique games out of 17 — almost every time a Cincinnati opponent loses, the Bengals’ strength of schedule is theoretically lowered. However, that loss is most likely coming against another team the Bengals have played, thereby raising that team’s strength of schedule and creating a wash.

The Bengals are 7.5-point underdogs at Jacksonville on Monday. Early projections for Week 14 have the Colts favored by 2 at Paycor Stadium.

The Bengals might be a slight favorite against the Vikings in Week 15, but they’ll be underdogs at the Steelers in Week 16, at the Chiefs in Week 17, and possibly at home against the Browns in Week 18.

Teams with a shot of finishing with five wins or less, their current record, and remaining schedule:

• Panthers (1-10): at Buccaneers (4-7), at Saints (5-6), Falcons (5-6), Packers (5-6), at Jaguars, Buccaneers (4-7)
• Cardinals (2-10): at Steelers (7-4), Bye, 49ers (8-3), at Bears (4-8), at Eagles (10-1), Seahawks (6-5)
• Patriots (2-9): Chargers (4-7), at Steelers (7-4), Chiefs (8-3), at Broncos (6-5), at Bills (6-6), Jets (4-7)
• Buccaneers (4-7): Panthers (1-10), at Falcons (5-6), at Packers (5-6), Jaguars (8-3), Saints (5-6), at Panthers (1-10)
• Titans (4-7): Colts (6-5), at Dolphins (8-3), Texans (6-5), Seahawks (6-5), at Texans (6-5), Jaguars (8-3)
• Jets (4-7): Falcons (5-6), Texans (6-5), at Dolphins (8-3), Commanders (4-8), at Browns (7-4), at Patriots (2-9)
• Chargers (4-7): at Patriots (2-9), Broncos (6-5), at Raiders (5-7), Bills (6-6), at Broncos (6-5), Chiefs (8-3)
• Bears (4-8): Bye, Lions (8-3), at Browns (7-4), Cardinals (2-10), Falcons (5-6), at Packers (5-6),
• Commanders (4-8): Dolphins (8-3), Bye, at Rams (5-6), at Jets (4-7), 49ers (8-3), Cowboys (8-3)
• Giants (4-8): Bye, Packers (5-6), at Saints (5-6), at Eagles (10-1), Rams (5-6), Eagles (10-1)

While Bengals fans might struggle to cheer against the team, they certainly can have guilt-free rooting interests in the other games across the league. Here is a look at Week 13 games involved in the derby for a top-five pick and which team Bengals fans should be pulling for to increase their odds of a better draft pick should the Cincinnati season completely implode.

• Chargers at Patriots: Patriots
• Cardinals at Steelers: Cardinals
• Falcons at Jets: Jets
• Dolphins at Commanders: Commanders
• Colts at Titans: Titans
• Panthers at Buccaneers: Buccaneers

Want to predict the rest of the 2023 season with our FREE NFL Playoff Predictor? Looking for the most up-to-date NFL standings? What about a breakdown of team depth charts or the NFL schedule? Pro Football Network has you covered with that and more!