The Kansas City Chiefs‘ preview walks you through the fantasy football value of Rashee Rice, while the Green Bay Packers‘ fantasy outlook discusses how to evaluate their pass game.
Kansas City Chiefs at Green Bay Packers
- Spread: Chiefs -6.5
- Total: 42
- Chiefs implied points: 24.3
- Packers implied points: 17.8
Quarterbacks
Patrick Mahomes: You’re not getting cute; let’s get that out of the way. Mahomes is locked into your lineup — zero questions asked.
But still, did you know that Mahomes has just two finishes better than QB7 this season?
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That’s a negative to an otherwise sparkling résumé, but that’s just a way for you to win some sort of bar bet with your friends. It’s not an excuse to bench the best QB in the game. He completed a season-high 79.4% of his passes in Las Vegas last week against the Raiders — the fourth time in seven games that at least three-quarters of his passes found a home with one of his teammates.
Jordan Love: We’ve seen this before, so you need to be careful, but Love looked put together on Thanksgiving and now gets extra time to prepare for a showtime showdown with Patrick Mahomes.
Over the past two weeks, Love has completed 68.1% of his passes for 590 yards, five touchdowns, and zero interceptions. The most encouraging part of his Turkey Day wasn’t the raw numbers; it was the fact that he funneled half of his targets to either his presumed WR1 (Christian Watson) or his favorite budding star (Jayden Reed).
Love had been spreading out the targets all season, and that has its positives, but it also requires an experienced QB to be on the same page with numerous players. If this is the start of Love ironing out his target hierarchy, he could develop some sustainability in our game.
You’ve been warned — we did see Love turn 29 completions into 396 yards and six touchdowns. We’ve seen peaks like this before, something that makes Love a risky roll of the dice, but we do have proof that the ceiling is enticing. He’s on the streaming radar and currently sits as my QB15 for the week.
Running Backs
Isiah Pacheco: With RB Jerick McKinnon (groin) out last week, Pacheco caught five balls in addition to cashing in a pair of short TDs on the ground, again proving the value of the lead back in an offense that is routinely in position to do damage.
It’s worth noting that RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire had a chance to vulture a short touchdown, but he failed because that’s what he does when he’s in close. Pacheco has provided fantasy managers with top-15 numbers at the position in six of his past nine — a run of production that I expect to continue through the fantasy playoffs.
Nearly 40% of yards gained against the Green Bay Packers come on the ground (fifth-highest), a defensive flaw that elevates Pacheco’s floor above its already impressive level.
Lock him in and tweet at me (@KyleSoppePFN) if you were one of the few with me on the Pacheco vs. Dameon Pierce debates this summer. We’re winning that bet and fantasy leagues together.
Let’s go!
AJ Dillon: How long until the Packers fully give up on the run game? Dillon is the lead back with Aaron Jones sidelined, but at 3.4 yards per carry and one score on 131 carries, why not just take your chances on 50 Love dropbacks?
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A big underdog on the basketball court has nothing to lose by launching a three-pointer after a three-pointer, so why not take a similar approach?
OK, I’ll get off my soapbox now. They aren’t doing that. Dillon only has one top-20 finish this season, and I can’t project him for a second against a strong defense. His volume (seven catches over the past two weeks don’t hurt, but Patrick Taylor held a 16-9 advantage over him in terms of RB routes run) alone makes him a low-end RB2 or Flex option, but he just comes without a significant ceiling.
Wide Receivers
Rashee Rice: All gas, no breaks! Rice was unleashed last week by leading the WR room in snaps, routes, and targets — and guess what? He came through massively.
In Week 12, he earned a WR4 rank with eight catches for 107 yards and a touchdown.
Injuries up and down this depth chart gave Rice a chance to strut his stuff last week, and with this volume of production, why would we project things to change moving forward?
Rice has been, on average, a top-30 receiver for two months now, and that is about where I think his floor sits for this game. His ceiling? A repeat of last week. The Packers own the third-lowest opponent aDOT this season, and I think that helps Rice. His 39-yard touchdown last week came on a four-yard pass with 35 YAC.
I have Rice flirting with my top 20, ranked ahead of big names like Tennessee Titans WR DeAndre Hopkins, Seattle Seahawks WR DK Metcalf, and Cincinnati Bengals WR Ja’Marr Chase.
Justin Watson: He has scored in consecutive games, and that’s nice, but with his target count dropping from 11 in Week 11 to three last week, is he any different than the other Kansas City receivers we’ve been chasing in circles all season long?
Mecole Hardman’s landing on IR opens up a spot for Watson to see consistent time on the field, but that doesn’t mean consistent fantasy production.
Watson might have another viable game or two, but you’re lying to yourself if you think you can project it. He’s on the fringe of being roster-worthy and is a more appealing DFS punt play than anything of value in season-long formats.
Christian Watson: That’s a score in consecutive games for Watson, and you have to love the fact that the coaching staff decided at the last minute to pivot off of their initial script to open Week 12 and throw a bomb to Watson on the first play. He hauled it in for 53 yards and reminded us all of the upside that we fell in love with just a season ago.
I still have my concerns about him being an alpha target earner, but with at least seven looks in three of his past five games, he’s trending in a positive direction. For the season, he has played in eight games and recorded two games with 90+ receiving yards and six games with under 40 receiving yards.
There simply is no middle ground, and that is terrifying in an offense headed by an inconsistent quarterback. The Chiefs are the top pressure unit in the league (26.7% of dropbacks per the Week 13 Cheat Sheet), and that worries me a bit for a deep threat like Watson.
I’m personally not playing him this week, but that doesn’t rule him out from being productive. It only takes one play, and we know that this coaching staff isn’t afraid to call his number.
Jayden Reed: The explosive rookie has produced three straight top-25 finishes, thanks to finding the end zone in each of those games. The viable fantasy numbers aren’t anything new. Since the Week 6 bye, Reed has an average weekly finish of WR26.
Let’s not get carried away. This Love season has been full of ups and downs, so riding too high after a few good games is dangerous. Reed doesn’t have a five-catch game on his NFL resume, and that keeps a concerningly low floor very much in play.
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The signs are there, and that requires him to not only be rostered but considered a viable Flex play in a week like this where six teams are on bye, and various others are impacted by basement-level QB play. Reed has 14 targets and five rush attempts over the past two weeks as this coaching staff attempts to maximize his impact on the game.
Reed is my highest-ranked Packer receiver this weekend, checking in just outside of my top 30.
Tight Ends
Travis Kelce: With at least six catches in eight of his past nine games, Kelce’s floor continues to dwarf the others at the position. Rice’s big game only elevates that floor, in my opinion, as he will gradually require more defensive attention with time.
It could cap Kelce’s ceiling, but as long as he’s giving you a consistent and significant edge on your opposition, there’s nothing to complain about.
Should You Start Russell Wilson or Jordan Love?
Both are viable streaming options if you’re replacing Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson this week, but I do prefer the stability that comes with Wilson. We’ve seen Love’s production all over the place this season and that could well continue against a strong Chiefs defense that should make his life difficult early and often.
Wilson gets an iffy Texans defense, and while he’s not facing Patrick Mahomes, C.J. Stroud and company could very well push him into an aggressive script and that fuels some sneaky upside.
Should You Start Javonte Williams or AJ Dillon?
I’ve gotten a lot of questions this week about Williams and the involvement of Samaje Perine (seven carries in Week 12 and seven catches in Week 11). You guys seem to be more worried than I am.
Williams has caught multiple passes in nine of 10 games this season, and while we have seen many spike plays from him, he does have a 15+ yard gain in six straight games.
The AJ Dillon experience has been less exciting, as he is averaging just 3.4 yards per carry. I expect the volume to be comparable, and I simply trust Williams more when it comes to producing when given the chance in space.
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