The Cleveland Browns‘ fantasy outlook dives into the Amari Cooper situation, while the Los Angeles Rams‘ preview discusses the fantasy football value of their talented WR room that is struggling in a significant way entering this week.
Cleveland Browns at Los Angeles Rams
- Spread: Rams -4
- Total: 39
- Browns implied points: 17.5
- Rams implied points: 21.5
Quarterbacks
Matthew Stafford: After throwing four touchdowns in four games (106 attempts), Stafford tossed four against the Cardinals on 33 attempts in Week 12. That was great production if you landed on it for some unknown reason, but don’t chase it. Please don’t chase it.
MORE: Katz’s Fantasy Football Start ’Em, Sit ’Em Picks for Week 13
Stafford hasn’t reached 235 passing yards in any of his past six contests, and last week was his first finish better than QB14 on the season. He’s a below-average QB2 for Week 13 — even with six teams on bye.
Running Backs
Jerome Ford: This offense is anything but appealing, but Ford is a viable option — even if the environment is less than fantasy-friendly. He has returned top-25 production in four straight games (and in six of seven), matching a season-high seven targets last week.
The game script killed him last week and held him to just nine carries (65 yards). I don’t see that being the case this week (or most weeks for that matter, given this defense), so the 51-19 snap edge he held over RB Kareem Hunt last week puts him in a position to be an RB2.
Kareem Hunt: The touchdown run was fun, but Hunt is trending out of fantasy relevance. He has seen multiple targets in just one of his past six games and has under 40 total yards in four straight games.
The role is limited, and the offensive potential is beyond limited. If you need the roster space, I don’t mind cutting ties with Hunt in favor of an upside receiver that has a higher ceiling.
His weekly finishes at the position since the bye, in succession, have been RB10, RB11, RB16, RB20, RB29, RB36, and RB56 per the Week 13 Cheat Sheet.
Kyren Williams: In his return to action, Williams out-snapped Royce Freeman 41-23 and held a 21-8 edge in routes. That’s an impressive usage rate after missing a month, and given how he was used pre-injury, I think it’s safe to say that the snap count moves further in his favor in short order.
Williams has four top-five finishes in his past six games, and while I’m not willing to go that high in the weekly rankings, he’s locked in top-15 play that carries significant TD equity. Through 12 weeks, 42.7% of yards gained against the Browns have been on the ground (second-highest). I don’t think the Rams have a ton of success here, but the damage they do do likely comes via the handoff.
For those playing in DFS contests, I’d let projected ownership drive your decision here. Williams is an interesting play if he comes in as an unpopular play, but the fact that he hasn’t been a top-25 fantasy RB in either game in which he has failed to score this season gives me pause about going his direction in a chalky situation.
Royce Freeman: The carry count in the first half was 10-5 in favor of Williams over Freeman before the starter took over in the second half. On the bright side, Freeman touched the ball on 56.5% of his snaps in Williams’ return. On the dark side, that snap count is in serious jeopardy, and that rate is anything but sustainable.
MORE: Should You Add Royce Freeman on the Week 13 Waiver Wire?
You can hang onto Freeman after the strong performance (13 carries for 77 yards and a TD) in Arizona, but expecting him to hold standalone value is a bit more optimistic than I’m willing to be. He’s my RB34 this week, and I’d rather roll the dice on Indianapolis Colts WR Josh Downs or Green Bay Packers WR Jayden Reed when it comes to a Flex decision.
Wide Receivers
Amari Cooper: Cleveland’s top receiver was blown up in the fourth quarter last week and didn’t return from the ribs injury, which makes him a name that needs to be tracked as the practice week concludes (Amari Cooper injury updates). That said, you can do better.
This pass game is broken. There have been 85 attempts for just 355 yards and one touchdown over the past two weeks. It is clear that the backup QBs prefer the short-target stylings of TE David Njoku, and if Cooper isn’t a lock for elite volume, he’s not going to return top-30 value.
I don’t think he does. Cooper is currently my WR37 — a spot behind a high-floor option in New England Patriots WR Demario Douglas. The WR position got ugly in a hurry, and Cooper isn’t immune to those struggles.
If the injury lingers, WR Cedric Tillman (89.4% route participation) is interesting when throwing darts at the end of your roster. The QB situation is obviously limiting in a massive way, but we’re talking about a 6’3” rookie (third-round pick) that the team is not only incentivized to develop but in need of to make plays as they make a push for the playoffs.
Cooper Kupp: The production has fallen off a cliff as of late. Maybe something bigger than a cliff. What’s bigger than a cliff? I can’t think of anything, so let’s call it a “Kupp.” When a star nosedives like this, he gets a label. I don’t make the rules, I just follow them.
The Kupp that Cooper has fallen off of has seen him finish as WR45 or worse in five straight games. If the Cleveland Browns EDGE Myles Garrett injury is serious, my confidence in Kupp as a low-end WR2 elevates in a significant way. I still believe in his ability to earn targets in a hurry — something that figures to come in handy against the third-best pressure unit in the NFL.
Puka Nacua: The targets remain, but if it wasn’t for Kupp, we’d be naming a drop this steep in production after Nacua. He hasn’t finished as a top-50 receiver in three of his past four games despite seeing at least seven targets in each of those games.
This might be more of a Stafford problem, but either way, it’s a concern. The return of Williams to stabilize this run game last week, combined with a matchup against an elite defense that wants to bleed the clock, means this might not get better any time soon.
While Kupp sits just outside of my top 20, Nacua is on the fringe of falling outside of my top 30. What was once a promising offense with a pair of locked-in starters at the WR position is now a boring offense that is struggling to sustain one pass catcher.
It’s worth noting that WR Demarcus Robinson ran eight more routes than WR Tutu Atwell, gaining steam as the game went on. Atwell made the most of his three targets (three catches for 76 yards), but we are looking at a player with more projectable downside than upside moving forward. He’s not the type of player I want to burn a roster spot on at this point in the season.
Tight Ends
David Njoku: With a 30% target share over the past two weeks, it is clear that the backup QB situation (regardless of who it is) is helping stabilize Njoku as a TE1. The ceiling is limited, to say the least, but 4-7 catches make you a viable tight end, and that is something Njoku has done in six straight (and nine of 10) games.
MORE: Fantasy News Tracker
The scoring opportunities are few and far between, though Njoku did have a touchdown in his hands last week in Denver that was knocked out at the last second. The scoring potential would be nice to have, but with this volume, it’s not a must-have to return TE1 value.
Should You Start Joe Mixon or Jerome Ford?
I have very little faith in either of these offenses, but I do think the Browns can remain competitive, and that’s enough to drive my decision here. Ford has been a nice per-touch producer with a reasonable floor, and that’s enough for me in this spot.
Mixon ran eight times for 16 yards against the Steelers a week ago, and, to be honest, he didn’t have a chance to do much more than that on the ground. He ended up with a viable stat line because of a 39-yard catch, but the bottom is at risk of falling out from his profile if the Jaguars jump out to the type of lead I expect.
Should You Start Ja’Marr Chase or Amari Cooper?
Can the answer be neither? Jake Browning should look marginally better this week than last, and if the script favors the passing game, Chase should hold the opportunity edge.
We know the Cleveland passing game is a mess — we think we know the Cincinnati passing game is a mess. That’s a minor distinction, but it’s enough for me to side with the superior talent in Chase and hope that sheer volume pays off.
Looking to make a trade in your fantasy league? Having trouble deciding who to start and who to sit? Setting DFS lineups? Check out PFN’s Free Fantasy Football Trade Analyzer, Start/Sit Optimizer, and DFS Lineup Optimizer to help you make the right decision!
