Not all fantasy football decisions are easy. Sure, starting Philadelphia Eagles WR A.J. Brown is something you’re doing weekly, but those decisions at the top of the board aren’t usually the difference in your tight matchups.
It’s the fantasy start ’em, sit ’em quandaries that have you waking up in a cold sweat that ultimately make a big difference.
I know I can’t be the only person that happens to. Below are my thoughts on some players that have been oft-asked about within the PFN Fantasy Discord and on X (Formerly known as Twitter). Looking for even more player insight? The Week 13 Cheat Sheet is the piece for you!
Fantasy Start ‘Em Picks for Week 13
Sam Howell, QB, Washington Commanders (vs. Dolphins)
It seems that with each passing week, there are fewer things that we can count on. And yet, Sam Howell remains.
The man has posted five straight top-10 finishes. He’s accomplished that ranking in seven of his past eight games. It’s not always pretty, it’s rarely four clean quarters, but it’s essentially always there when all is said and done.
Howell threw 44 passes while you enjoyed your turkey dinner (forget the turkey, by the way, hit me with all the sweet potatoes and stuffing) last week — the fifth straight game he reached that number (300+ passing yards in four of those games).
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Over that stretch, he’s averaging 31.2 completions per game. If you need a marker for just how bananas that is, Tom Brady set the single-season completion record in 2021 averaging 28.5 per game that year.
My only concern here is that the Commanders use an offensive strategy that they’ve used in the past when overmatched with success: bleed clock. That’s not playing to their strengths, but a shootout with the Dolphins isn’t exactly a fun option, either. That minor risk has Howell sitting at QB10 in my ranks, a spot that is still ahead of Jared Goff and Russell Wilson.
Rhamondre Stevenson, RB, New England Patriots
I’m not ready to bend the knee and say that Rhamondre Stevenson should be considered moving forward how he was viewed in August, but he’s certainly trending in that direction by finishing as an RB2 or better in five of his past six games (three top-10 finishes).
The first step in that process is a lead role. Last week, he held a 53-15 snap edge over Ezekiel Elliott (25-5 advantage in routes run) and posted 20+ carries for the second straight game, bringing his season total to two such games.
MORE: Should You Start Rhamondre Stevenson?
The other significant step for fantasy managers is the fact that Stevenson has seen at least four targets in six straight games. The Chargers’ run defense has been more vulnerable through the air than on the ground of late, but let’s not confuse this as some defensive front to fear.
I have Stevenson as my RB19 this week, with the thought being that New England continues to funnel their offense through him in what figures to be a close game; it’s the Chargers — almost all games are like that.
Rashee Rice, WR, Kansas City Chiefs (at Packers)
All gas, no breaks! Rashee Rice was unleashed last week by leading the WR room in snaps, routes, and targets — and guess what? He came through in a big way.
In Week 12, he earned a WR4 rank with eight catches for 107 yards and a touchdown.
Injuries up and down this depth chart gave Rice a chance to strut his stuff last week, and with this volume of production, why would we project things to change moving forward?
Rice has been, on average, a top-30 receiver for two months now, and that is about where I think his floor sits for this game. His ceiling? A repeat of last week. The Packers own the third-lowest opponent aDOT this season, and I think that helps Rice. His 39-yard touchdown last week came on a four-yard pass with 35 YAC.
I have Rice flirting with my top 20, ranked ahead of big names like Tennessee Titans WR DeAndre Hopkins, Seattle Seahawks WR DK Metcalf, and Cincinnati Bengals WR Ja’Marr Chase.
Josh Downs, WR, Indianapolis Colts (at Titans)
He’s back! Josh Downs was earning 25% of the targets from Gardner Minshew before suffering the knee injury and playing in a compromised fashion for a pair of games. Last week, he had 13 targets (32.5% share)!
For the month before getting hurt, Downs had established a double-digit half-PPR expectation, and I’m comfortable in getting back to that this week. The rookie is a top-30 WR for me this week, ranked ahead of bigger names like Chris Godwin and Tyler Lockett.
David Njoku, TE, Cleveland Browns (at Rams)
With a 30% target share over the past two weeks, it’s clear that the backup QB situation (regardless of who it is) is helping stabilize David Njoku as a TE1. The ceiling is limited, to say the least, but 4-7 catches make you a viable tight end, and that is something Njoku has done in six straight (and nine of 10) games.
The scoring opportunities are few and far between, though Njoku did have a touchdown in his hands last week in Denver that was knocked out at the last second. The scoring potential would be nice to have, but with this volume, it’s not a must-have to return TE1 value.
Fantasy Sit ‘Em Picks for Week 13
Jordan Love, QB, Green Bay Packers (vs. Chiefs)
We’ve seen this before, so take some caution. Jordan Love looked put together on Thanksgiving and now gets extra time to prepare for a showtime showdown with Patrick Mahomes.
Over the past two weeks, Love has completed 68.1% of his passes for 590 yards, five touchdowns, and zero interceptions. The most encouraging part of his Turkey Day wasn’t the raw numbers; it was the fact that he funneled half of his targets to either his presumed WR1 (Christian Watson) or his favorite budding star (Jayden Reed).
Love had been spreading out the targets all season, and that has its positives, but it also requires an experienced QB to be on the same page with numerous players. If this is the start of Love ironing out his target hierarchy, he could develop some sustainability in our game.
You’ve been warned — we did see Love turn 29 completions into 396 yards and six touchdowns. We’ve seen peaks like this before, something that makes Love a risky roll of the dice, but we do have proof that the ceiling is enticing. He’s on the streaming radar and currently sits as my QB15 for the week.
Carolina Panther RBs (at Buccaneers)
Chuba Hubbard: Most of fantasy analysis is the usage of past data to help make future decisions. Analysts use trends, health, and a dozen other factors to help them best form educated guesses about what the next week will hold.
That’s how most analyses work. The Panthers’ backfield, however, seems to be a moving target with little rhyme or reason. In situations like that, all we can do is present what happened most recently and go from there.
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In Week 12, Chuba Hubbard held a 47-27 snap edge over Miles Sanders (26-7 in routes) and posted his third top-25 performance in four games. The 5-1 edge in targets is what has my attention the most. I’m not sure carries in this offense are going to be all that valuable, but receptions hold much more upside.
I have Hubbard ranked a handful of spots higher, but neither Panther is a safe start. Hubbard sits just inside of my top 30, while Sanders is on the outside looking in.
Miles Sanders: “An investment fraud that pays existing investors with funds collected from new investors.”
That’s a Ponzi scheme. That is also how current investors in Sanders feel. We were fed coach speak all summer about how this team paid Sanders and wanted to help him rediscover his receiving numbers from his rookie season.
Early in the season, it was working. We investors were being paid off in funds (catches) collected from new investors (the Panthers) with 12 receptions in September. The house of cards has come crashing down since.
Sanders has nine catches since and hasn’t returned top-25 value in a single game since Week 3. Over his past three games, he’s averaging just 2.6 yards per carry and has looked even worse.
I have no feel for this backfield. That’s a lie. I have a feel-ing for this backfield. It’s sadness. It’s disappointment.
Fantasy managers who don’t have to waste brain power on this backfield are lucky.
Amari Cooper, WR, Cleveland Browns (at Rams)
Cleveland’s top receiver was blown up in the fourth quarter last week and didn’t return from the rib injury, which makes him a name that needs to be tracked as the practice week concludes. That said, you can do better.
This passing game is broken. There have been 85 attempts for just 355 yards and one touchdown over the past two weeks. It’s clear that the backup QBs prefer the short-target stylings of Njoku, and if Amari Cooper isn’t a lock for elite volume, he’s not going to return top-30 value.
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I don’t think he does. Cooper is currently my WR37 — a spot behind a high-floor option in New England Patriots WR Demario Douglas. The WR position got ugly in a hurry, and Cooper isn’t immune to those struggles.
If the injury lingers, WR Cedric Tillman (89.4% route participation) is interesting when throwing darts at the end of your roster. The QB situation is massively limiting, but we’re talking about a 6’3” rookie (third-round pick) that the team is not only incentivized to develop but in need of to make plays as they make a push for the playoffs.
Curtis Samuel, WR, Washington Commanders (vs. Dolphins)
By finishing as the WR21 in Week 12, Curtis Samuel’s name is back on the radar as a Flex option — but I’m not interested.
The strong showing came on the heels of four straight finishes outside of the top 55. Samuel was targeted on 27.9% of his snaps last week (McLaurin was at 16.7% and Dotson 9.1%), an unsustainable rate.
If you think that level of usage is here to stay, then we fundamentally see this situation differently, and I wish you the best of luck. I’m happy to oppose Samuel this week, he’s nowhere near my starting range of receivers.
Keep an eye on …
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