Making lineup decisions can be the most frustrating or most rewarding part of fantasy football. Here to help you make those decisions are our fantasy start ’em and sit ’em picks. Lineup decisions are crucial, as fantasy managers make that final playoff push. Let’s take a look at our early Week 14 start/sit plays.
Start ‘Em Picks for Week 14
Gardner Minshew II, QB, Indianapolis Colts (at CIN)
There are a couple of viable QB streamers this week, which is good news (or as good as you can hope for) for those fantasy managers who lost Jacksonville Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence (or who have already been dealing with losing one of an inordinate number of starting quarterbacks that have gone down).
Gardner Minshew II is coming off his second-best game of the season. He threw for 312 yards and two touchdowns.
This week, Minshew gets a Cincinnati Bengals defense that just allowed 321 passing yards to Lawrence and backup QB C.J. Beathard. They allowed the latter to complete nine of 10 passes when he came in for Lawrence.
The Bengals allow the 10th-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. With QB Jake Browning looking more than capable of running the offense, the Indianapolis Colts are unlikely to be able to purely rely on the run game and ball control, resulting in more volume for Minshew, which is good for fantasy.
Alexander Mattison, RB, Minnesota Vikings (at LV)
Hopefully, the bye week did the Minnesota Vikings well. It has been quite some time since Alexander Mattison was a worthwhile fantasy starter.
Outside of Week 9, Mattison’s last game before the bye was his best fantasy outing since Week 6. He scored 8.3 fantasy points. Yeah, it’s been bad.
There were concerns in the two games preceding the bye that RB Ty Chandler was going to earn a larger role. Those did not come to fruition. Mattison remains the clear RB1.
MORE: PFN’s FREE NFL Playoff Predictor
Now, he finds himself in a great spot against a Las Vegas Raiders defense allowing the sixth-most ppg to running backs. They are surrendering 4.4 yards per carry and 105 rushing yards per game.
Regardless of who the Vikings start at quarterback this week, Mattison should be a safe bet for around 15 touches. WR Justin Jefferson’s return will only help open things up for the ground game.
Javonte Williams, RB, Denver Broncos (at LAC)
I don’t know if any running back has had worse touchdown luck than Javonte Williams. WR Courtland Sutton is out there making circus catches for touchdowns every week, yet Williams can’t even punch in a single one-yard touchdown.
This season, Williams has carried the ball 153 times for 584 yards. He has zero rushing touchdowns — but he does have two through the air.
Over the past two weeks, Williams has seen his role in the offense increase. He’s played 65% and 70% of the snaps — his two highest rates of the season.
Things should go well against a Los Angeles Chargers defense allowing the 11th-most ppg to running backs.
More specifically, Williams could be active in the passing game. Only two teams see a higher percentage of targets against them go to running backs than the Chargers’ 22.8%. Williams has caught at least two passes in all but one game this season. The only thing standing between him and an RB1 week is the end zone. I think he gets there this week.
Drake London, WR, Atlanta Falcons (vs. TB)
Last week, Drake London was on the other side of this column. It was one of my best calls of the season. He caught just one pass for eight yards in a predictably ugly, low-scoring, field goal and defense fest against the New York Jets. This week, things should be much better for the uber-talented sophomore WR.
The Atlanta Falcons may want to run the ball, but the Tampa Bay Buccaneers don’t usually let teams do that. The way to beat the Bucs is through the air, where they allow the sixth-most ppg to wide receivers.
There is a little bit of a concern that the Bucs have defended the perimeter well and have mostly been beaten via the slot. However, given the Falcons’ lack of quality receivers beyond London, I expect them to move him around a bit and for them to get the ball to their second-best offensive weapon.
Elijah Moore, WR, Cleveland Browns (vs. JAX)
Last week, Amari Cooper left the game early with a concussion. That resulted in Elijah Moore seeing a season-high 12 targets. Although he caught just four for 83 yards, the volume was incredibly encouraging.
This week, even if Cooper can go, I like Moore to once again post a quality line against a collapsing Jaguars pass defense. We just saw the Jaguars get eaten alive by the backup QB Browning. They now allow the third-most ppg to wide receivers.
MORE: Early Week 14 Waiver Wire Pickups
Cleveland Browns backup QB Joe Flacco is probably not winning many games for the team, but he’s the best option for the fantasy values of everyone on the roster. If he continues to air it out the way he has over the past two seasons when starting, efficiency would be a bonus. Moore is in a great spot this week — with or without Cooper.
Gerald Everett, TE, Los Angeles Chargers (vs. DEN)
Over the past two weeks, Gerald Everett has been about as consistent as possible. He’s played exactly 64% of the snaps in both games, caught exactly four passes, and totaled 43 and 44 receiving yards, respectively. Two weeks ago, he even scored.
Everett should be good enough for a solid 6-8 fantasy points as a floor. That’s not bad for a tight end this season, but this week, there may be an actual upside.
The Denver Broncos allow 16.1 ppg to tight ends — the most in the league. Opponents know they struggle against the tight end, so they throw to the position 25.4% of the time, the third-highest rate in the league. In fact, 28.1% of the Broncos total receiving yards allowed have gone to tight ends.
With the Chargers lacking a clear second option in the passing game behind WR Keenan Allen, for at least one week, it could be Everett.
Sit ‘Em Picks for Week 14
Matthew Stafford, QB, Los Angeles Rams (at BAL)
Over the past two weeks, Matthew Stafford has enjoyed a bit of a resurgence. After failing to reach 17.5 fantasy points in any of the first 11 weeks this season, Stafford scored 24 and 23 in the past two weeks.
While it’s been nice to see Stafford look like his old self, not much has changed. He just happened to throw seven touchdowns over that span.
This week, Stafford is not only on the road, but he gets to face the top pass defense in the NFL. The Baltimore Ravens allow just 12.8 ppg to quarterbacks, the fewest in the league. WR Puka Nacua is banged up, and WR Cooper Kupp does not look right. The Rams are not going to score 36+ points for a third consecutive game. This is a bad spot for a quarterback playing as well as he has all season.
Chicago Bears Running Backs (vs. DET)
Last week, rookie RB Roschon Johnson appeared to have taken control of the Chicago Bears’ backfield, playing 74% of the snaps. It was also a weird game on a short week with no RB D’Onta Foreman.
Part of the reason to fade the Bears’ backfield is we have no idea how touches will be distributed when Johnson, Foreman, and RB Khalil Herbert are all healthy. I don’t think the Bears know either.
MORE: 2023 Dynasty RB Rankings
If any Bears running back is going to succeed, he will likely need volume. I just don’t see that happening. Therefore, fantasy managers would be relying on efficiency against a Detroit Lions defense allowing the fourth-fewest ppg to running backs.
The Lions’ pass defense has fallen apart, while their run defense remains stout. If the Bears are serious about winning this game, and I believe they are because all NFL teams compete every week, they are going to put the ball in QB Justin Fields’ hands, limiting the production of all the running backs.
Devin Singletary, RB, Houston Texans (at NYJ)
One thing I try to not do with start ’em and sit ’em picks is to say a player is going to just do what he did last week again. With Devin Singletary, I think an exception is warranted because of the unique circumstances.
Just two weeks ago, Singletary kept RB Dameon Pierce completely at bay, relegating him to pure backup. Last week, it was a much more even split, with the former playing 46% of the snaps, and the latter 38%.
In the two games before Pierce’s return, Singletary saw carry counts of 30 and 22. In the two games since Pierce returned, Singletary has seen carry counts of six and eight. Coincidence? I think not.
The Jets are not an imposing matchup for running backs. Given their elite pass defense, they are a bit of a run funnel, allowing the seventh-most ppg to running backs in the league.
Unfortunately, there’s no guarantee Singletary or Pierce will see enough volume to take advantage of it. Additionally, it appears as though the goal line back will be whoever’s drive it is when they get near the end zone. That creates another layer of randomness and unpredictability, making Singletary someone to avoid this week.
Calvin Ridley, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars (at CLE)
I’ve featured Calvin Ridley a lot in this portion of the column. I won’t apologize for it. He continues to be one of the most overrated wide receivers in the league and fantasy.
Last week, the Jaguars QBs Lawrence and Beathard combined for 321 passing yards. In a game where WR Christian Kirk went down on his first reception, Ridley had 26 receiving yards. Out of all the fake alphas that might exist in the NFL, Ridley is the fakest.
Now, are we asking Ridley to somehow produce alongside a backup quarterback against the second-best defense against wide receivers? I don’t think so.
The Jaguars are in a world of trouble without Lawrence. They will try and lean on RB Travis Etienne Jr., and it won’t fully work. When Beathard does throw, he will probably try and force the ball to Ridley, giving him some semblance of a volume-based floor. But that hasn’t meant anything in the past because Ridley can’t get open.
If you need a win to make the playoffs, Ridley is not the guy to help you get it.
Noah Brown, WR, Houston Texans (at NYJ)
It’s weird to recommend a guy who just caught zero passes as a sit. However, we’ve seen Noah Brown post consecutive 100-yard receiving games before.
Last week was Brown’s first game back after a two-game absence due to injury. While he only saw two targets, he did play 81% of the snaps. With WR Tank Dell done for the season, Brown is poised to act as the Texans’ WR2 opposite Nico Collins. That’s worth rostering, and starting in fantasy — most weeks — just not this one.
MORE: PFN Consensus Rankings
The Jets allow the fewest ppg to wide receivers, and it isn’t close. Their 22.4 ppg allowed is a whopping 4.9 ppg fewer than the Browns’ second-best mark. No team has allowed fewer wide receiver touchdowns this season.
Even with Houston QB C.J. Stroud playing at an elite level, Brown is unlikely to find success against an equally elite Jets pass defense.
Kyle Pitts, TE, Atlanta Falcons (vs. TB)
It is exceedingly difficult to find a tight end to recommend sitting because, beyond the top few guys, every tight end is a viable sit every week. Kyle Pitts is a good choice because every time he has a moderately decent game, fantasy managers tend to wonder if it’s the start of a breakout. It isn’t. It never will be.
The issue is not HC Arthur Smith. The issue is not QB Desmond Ridder. Although those two don’t help. It is Pitts — he is just a middling talent, at best.
This season, Pitts has just two games with double-digit fantasy points. Last week’s 4-51 effort on eight targets was likely a product of the Falcons being unable to throw to wide receivers against the Jets.
This week, Ridder should have no trouble finding London, thus obviating the need to force the ball to the never-open Pitts.
You probably don’t have a better tight-end option than Pitts, but if you do, Pitts is not a TE1 this week (or any week).
Looking to make a trade in your fantasy league? Having trouble deciding who to start and who to sit? Setting DFS lineups? Check out PFN’s Free Fantasy Football Trade Analyzer, Start/Sit Optimizer, and DFS Lineup Optimizer to help you make the right decision!