Fantasy football is more than just the weekly head-to-head games we’ve all grown to love. On Underdog, fantasy managers can put their player-projection skills to the test by predicting player stat lines.
Here are my top Underdog plays for the Sunday slate of Week 13 games.
Top Underdog Pick’ems for Week 13
Underdog Pick’ems allows fantasy managers to predict stat lines and fantasy-point totals for almost all fantasy-relevant players. You can make two picks that pay out 3x, even money, or add more selections to your entry for higher payouts.
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The levels are 3x, 6x, 10x, and 20x, progressing with each additional pick’em you add to your entry. Let’s look at this week’s Underdog Pick’ems for the Sunday slate.
For the Sunday slate, there are far more games than the individual prime-time games. Underdog entries are limited to five pick’ems. Most weeks, there will be more than five pick’ems I like. Additionally, hitting a five-pick-’em entry is hard. I don’t want to consistently go 3-2 or 4-1 and lose.
As a result, I will limit this list to my favorite picks of the week. I will try and keep it to no more than 10 maximum. At the bottom of this article, I used to provide my pick’em entry, which consists of three to four of my top pick’ems.
Unfortunately, due to new regulations in New York, I can no longer play these myself. To compensate, I will list the pick’ems in order of confidence.
Tim Boyle Lower Than 181.5 Passing Yards
This is easily my favorite pick’em of the slate. Tim Boyle played unfathomably bad football last week. He was well on his way to sailing under his passing yardage projection, but a Darrynton Evans fumble opened the floodgates for a volume-filled garbage time throw fest.
Boyle attempted 29 passes in the second half last week. Here is why I don’t anticipate that happening again. I think Boyle is getting benched at halftime. There’s no way he’s going over this number in the first half. And if he plays as poorly as I think he will, I expect the Jets to turn to Trevor Siemian in the second half, making this an easy hit.
Josh Downs Higher Than 4.5 Receptions
Last week, Josh Downs caught five passes. It was the first time he reached that mark in three games. But we need context to understand why.
Downs was dealing with a knee injury in his previous two games and wasn’t playing his usual complement of snaps. Last week, he was back to his usual primary slot role, and he saw a whopping 13 targets.
Prior to the knee injury, Downs had caught at least five passes in four consecutive games. Now, he gets a Titans defense that is more vulnerable against the pass than the run. They allow 14.4 receptions per game to wide receivers, the fourth-most in the league. They especially struggle against the slot, where Downs primarily operates.
Brock Purdy Higher Than 1.5 Passing Touchdowns
Apparently, road Brock Purdy and home Brock Purdy are things. I’m just not sure I buy it. Purdy has only thrown multiple touchdown passes in five games this year. But it doesn’t get much easier than an Eagles defense that is the second-worst in the NFL against the pass.
The Eagles just gave up 34 points to the Bills last week. Josh Allen threw two touchdowns against them in an epic shootout. I think we could see something similar this week.
Adam Thielen Higher Than 5.5 Receptions
Last week, Adam Thielen had his worst game of the season, catching one of three targets for two yards. Before that, Thielen caught at least six passes in eight of his previous nine games.
I am buying into the fired coach narrative a bit here. I think the Panthers come out and play inspired football and look much more competent offensively. While they’d probably prefer their offense not run through a 33-year-old wide receiver, he’s still the best they’ve got.
The Bucs are a pass-funnel defense. They allow 14.0 receptions per game to wide receivers, the seventh-most in the league. They also allow the second-most yardage to wide receivers. Thielen should have no trouble clearing six receptions.
Sam Howell Higher Than 38.5 Pass Attempts
The Commanders may not be a particularly good team. But they don’t give up. Whereas plenty of other teams fall behind and just run the ball and go home, the Commanders throw, throw, and throw some more.
Sam Howell has attempted at least 42 passes in six consecutive games. The Commanders are heavy underdogs again this week. They should be trailing and thus throwing. Look for Slingin’ Sammy to toss up the rock another 40+ times again.
Amon-Ra St. Brown Higher Than 7.0 Receptions
For the Detroit Lions passing game, you just need to know two things: 1) It is always Amon-Ra St. Brown, and 2) It is never not Amon-Ra St. Brown.
St. Brown has seen at least nine targets in six straight games. He’s caught at least eight passes in five of those six. The Lions’ passing game runs through ARSB. That’s enough for me.
Puka Nacua Lower Than 55.5 Receiving Yards
The Puka Nacua dream rookie season has hit a bit of a wall. He’s gone above 43 yards in just one of his previous four games and just two of his last six.
MORE: Kyle Soppe’s Week 13 Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet
Cooper Kupp is not producing, either, but Kupp merely being in the lineup relegates Nacua to Matthew Stafford’s second target. That is not ideal in one of the most difficult matchups possible for wide receivers.
The Browns allow just 117 yards per game to wide receivers, the third-fewest in the league. Their 8.5 receptions per game allowed to wide receivers is the best mark in the league.
Christian Watson Lower Than 43.5 Receiving Yards
Isn’t it a bit curious that after Christian Watson breaks out for 94 yards, his projection is still just 43.5? Perhaps it’s because Underdog isn’t buying it … and neither am I.
Prior to last week, Watson had just one other game with so much as more than 37 receiving yards. He thrived last week against a collapsing Lions pass defense.
Now, he gets a Chiefs defense allowing the eighth-fewest yards to wide receivers. L’Jarius Sneed has been locking down opposing outside receivers who are far more talented than Watson. Look for Watson to go back to his regularly scheduled programming this week.
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