Get your shopping done early this year. Black Friday belongs to the NFL with an Amazon Prime broadcast of the Miami Dolphins at New York Jets.
The AFC East foes meet for the 116th time — but for the first time on the day after Thanksgiving. The Dolphins have a slight edge in the all-time series (58-56-1).
Miami Dolphins vs. New York Jets Game Preview
The Dolphins are heavily favored to add to that series lead. The Jets are 10-point underdogs — the biggest home underdogs of Week 12.
The Dolphins are in search of their first 8-3 start since 2000-2001, and their 12th win in their last 15 games against the Jets — including their third win in their last four trips to MetLife Stadium.
MORE: Outside-the-Box Solution to Dolphins’ Short-Yardage Woes
Here are seven more stats that will go a long way in determining Friday’s outcome, courtesy of Inside Edge.
Seven Dolphins-Jets Stats From Inside Edge
Stat: The Dolphins have a third-down conversion rate of 53.1% against the blitz this season — fifth-best in the NFL. The Jets’ defense has allowed a third-down conversion rate of 55.6% when blitzing this season — the worst in the NFL.
Analysis: Robert Saleh must see the same data that we do. The Jets don’t blitz effectively, so they don’t blitz often. They do so on just 16.9% of opponents’ dropbacks, the second-lowest rate in football.
Stat: The Jets have a third-down conversion rate of just 20% since Week 8 — second-worst in the NFL. The Dolphins’ defense has allowed a third-down conversion rate of just 24.2% since Week 8 — second-best in the NFL.
Analysis: That gap will feel like a chasm on Friday, with Tim Boyle under center and reigning AFC Defensive Player of the Week Jalen Ramsey playing at an all-world level.
Stat: Dolphins running backs have averaged 133.6 rushing yards per game this season — best in the NFL. The Jets have allowed an average of 138.3 rushing yards per game this season — third-worst in the NFL.
Analysis: Raheem Mostert set a career-high in carries in 2022 and is on pace to do it again (with 131 through 10 games). The Dolphins will be without Salvon Ahmed going forward, so expect a bigger role for Jeff Wilson.
Stat: The Jets have allowed opponents to pressure their quarterback on 31.7% of pass attempts this season — third-worst in the NFL. The Dolphins have pressured opposing QBs on 28.6% of passing plays this season — tied for fifth-best in the NFL.
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Analysis: The Mekhi Becton injury makes a bad situation worse for a Jets offensive line that couldn’t even keep Aaron Rodgers healthy through a single series.
Stat: New York running backs have averaged just 45.5 rushing yards per game since Week 8 — worst in the NFL. Miami has allowed an average of just 70.3 rushing yards per game since Week 8 — best in the NFL.
Analysis: Remember that intense lobbying campaign for the Dolphins to pay Dalvin Cook? Dolphins GM Chris Grier was smart to hold the line. Cook has yet to score a touchdown, and his yards per carry average (3.3) is by far the lowest of his career.
Stat: Miami has run successful plays on just 13.3% of pass attempts when their QB was under pressure since Week 8 — fourth-worst in the NFL. The Jets have pressured opposing QBs on 35.0% of passing plays since Week 8 — third-best in the NFL.
Analysis: The many injuries to the Miami Dolphins’ offensive line have had an impact. The Dolphins on the year have a 52% pass block win rate, the 11th-lowest figure in the NFL.
MORE: Dolphins Practice Report, Injury Update
Stat: New York has run just 27.7% of offensive plays in on their opponent’s side of the field since Week 8 — worst in the NFL. Dolphins have allowed their opponents to run just 31.5% of plays in their territory since Week 8 — best in the NFL.
Analysis: Benching Zach Wilson for Boyle was probably Saleh’s only option if he wanted to keep the faith of his players. But the move probably won’t make much of a difference.
Dolphins vs. Jets Predictions
- Adam Beasley: Dolphins
- David Bearman: Dolphins
- Dalton Miller: Dolphins
- Jay Morrison: Dolphins
- Dallas Robinson: Dolphins
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