The Miami Dolphins vs. New York Jets contest is the first annual NFL Black Friday game, and we have plenty of player prop bets we like in this one. Will Tua Tagovailoa and Tyreek Hill have big performances against this Jets defense? How will Garrett Wilson do with the change at quarterback? Let’s get right into our top Dolphins vs. Jets player prop bets to target.
Top Dolphins vs. Jets Player Prop Bets To Target
Tua Tagovailoa Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (+110 at DraftKings)
Katz: Tua Tagovailoa has thrown multiple touchdowns in all but four games this season. With that said, we’re getting good enough odds on him to only throw one (or zero) against a defense that is among the best in the league against the pass.
We’ve seen the Jets shut down elite QBs like Josh Allen and Justin Herbert. We also know Mike McDaniel is a very progressive and forward-thinking offensive mind. I can assure you he is well aware that the Jets are a bit of a run-funnel defense. Look for the Dolphins to lean on Raheem Mostert and pound the football in this one.
Given that the Dolphins are favorites, the game script should not force them away from the run. The Dolphins should win this game comfortably, but here’s to hoping they score no more than one touchdown through the air.
Raheem Mostert Over 78.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-115 at DraftKings)
Blewis: While the Jets have an elite defense, they have allowed the sixth-most yards from scrimmage to opposing running backs this season. They’re also just 19th in yards per carry allowed to running backs, another surprising stat when you consider how good their defense is.
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The upside with Mostert here is that he should have high usage in this game, and he also has big-play ability, meaning this prop isn’t game-script-dependent by any means.
Tyreek Hill Longest Reception Over 25.5 Yards (-120 at DraftKings)
Blewis: The opponent might scare you off in tailing this pick, but we’re talking about Tyreek Hill here, the best big-play receiver in the NFL.
As good as this Jets defense is, this over is easily attainable for Hill, as comparable WRs such as CeeDee Lamb, A.J. Brown, and Davante Adams had receptions for 31, 49, and 42 yards each against this team.
This season, the only teams that failed to have a wide receiver record a reception for over 26 yards against the Jets were the Patriots, Chiefs, Broncos, Giants, and Chargers. Besides the Broncos and Chargers, those are arguably the three worst WR corps in the NFL.
Garrett Wilson Over 4.5 Receptions (-125 at DraftKings)
Blewis: This is purely a “squeaky wheel gets the grease” play. Of all Jets players, Garrett Wilson has to be the most unhappy with their quarterback play this season, as it certainly has had a huge impact on his receiving numbers.
Last week, Wilson caught just two of his eight targets for nine yards. I’m not confident enough in Tim Boyle to take the over on Wilson’s receiving yards line, especially with Jalen Ramsey covering him, but I do expect the Jets to make it a focal point to get the ball in the hands of their best playmaker.
Dalvin Cook Under 10.5 Rushing Yards (-115 at DraftKings)
Soppe: Following the waiving of Michael Carter, the Jets moved Dalvin Cook into that pass-catching/third-down role and activated rookie Israel Abanikanda to assume the more traditional “backup RB” role behind Breece Hall, Cook’s previous role.
Cook wasn’t exactly involved on the ground in a significant way anyway (under five carries in every game since early October), and those few reps might be a thing of the past. When it comes to game script, if this game is one-sided late, what do you think is most likely to occur?
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- Jets go pass-heavy
- Jets turn to develop Abanikanda
- Jets put more tread on the tires of Cook (1,600+ career touches)
Order them however you’d like, but I’m assuming that third option is least likely for all rational thinkers!
Tyler Conklin Over 2.5 Receptions (-165 at BetMGM)
Soppe: When the Jets take to the air, it figures to be boring, and boring means Tyler Conklin. The pride of Central Michigan has at least three grabs in seven of his past nine games, and we get a minor discount in price thanks to a low usage Week 3 loss to the Bills.
Miami’s path to losing this game is giving up big plays, not six-yard routes to a 254-pound tight end, so I anticipate Conklin being used as an extension of the run game.
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