The Miami Dolphins (6-3) return from their bye with an eminently winnable game against the 5-5 Las Vegas Raiders.
The Dolphins, as of Friday, were favored by a whopping 13 points — making the Raiders the heaviest underdogs in Week 11.
Las Vegas Raiders vs. Miami Dolphins Game Preview
Miami will look to extend their firm grasp of the AFC East. The Dolphins entered the weekend with a 1.5-game lead over the Buffalo Bills and were given an 89% chance to win the division, per the New York Times.
As these game preview stats from Inside Edge suggest, that line is plenty fair.
7 Raiders-Dolphins Stats From Inside Edge
Stat: Dolphins RBs have averaged 138.1 rushing yards per game this season, unsurprisingly the best in the NFL. The Raiders have allowed an average of 137.7 rushing yards per game this season — third-worst in the NFL.
Analysis: Miami could especially find success up the middle, where they are averaging 5.3 yards per carry this season (second-best in the NFL). Las Vegas, meanwhile, has allowed 4.4 yards per carry when defending rushes up the middle this season — fifth-worst in the NFL.
MORE: Miami Dolphins Week 11 Injury Update
Stat: Raiders running backs have rushed for 10 or more yards on just 4.3% of 207 carries this season, the worst mark in football. The Dolphins have allowed 10+ yards on just 6.1% of carries to RBs this season — fourth-best in the NFL.
Analysis: More reason to believe Las Vegas will have trouble running the ball on Vic Fangio’s defense? They are averaging just 1.5 yards per carry on 3rd-and-short this season — tied for second-worst in the NFL. Miami has allowed just 1.9 yards per carry when defending in those situations this season, the fourth-best mark in the NFL.
Stat: The Dolphins have allowed opponents to pressure their QB on just 17% of pass attempts this season — tied for best in the NFL. The Raiders have pressured opposing quarterbacks on just 20.2% of passing plays this season — fourth-worst in the NFL.
Analysis: It’s Maxx Crosby or bust for the Raiders’ pass rush. His 9.5 sacks are seven more than any other Las Vegas defender, and his 15 quarterback hits are more than the next three Raiders in that category combined.
Stat: Las Vegas has averaged just 271 yards from scrimmage per game since Week 7, tied for last in football. Miami, however, has allowed an average of just 298 yards from scrimmage since Week 7 — fifth-best in the NFL.
Analysis: The Dolphins are as healthy as they’ve been all year on defense, and the introduction of Jalen Ramsey into the group has had an immediate impact. Best of luck, rookie Aidan O’Connell.
Stat: Dolphins WRs have averaged 5.4 yards after the catch this season — fourth-best in the NFL. The Raiders have allowed 5.6 yards after catch per reception to WRs this season — second-worst in the NFL.
Analysis: We wrote in recent days that the Dolphins need Jaylen Waddle to take some of the load off of Tyreek Hill in the second half of the season. This should be the perfect opportunity to do just that.
MORE: NFL Offense Rankings 2023
Stat: The Dolphins are 13-6 (.684) when allowing fewer than three sacks since the 2022 season — 10th-best in the NFL. The Raiders have averaged just two sacks per game over that time — tied for third-worst in the NFL.
Analysis: The schedule does the Dolphins’ banged-up offensive line a favor, as the Raiders are ill-suited to exploit backups Lester Cotton and Liam Eichenberg (assuming that’s who plays at left and right guard).
Stat: Miami is 9-3 (.750) when not throwing an interception since the 2022 season — 10th-best in the NFL. The Raiders have intercepted 15 passes since the 2022 season — tied for third-fewest in the NFL.
Analysis: Tua Tagovailoa has been excellent this season except in one important area: He has thrown seven interceptions — fifth-most among quarterbacks who have appeared in fewer than 10 games.
Raiders vs. Dolphins Predictions
Adam Beasley: Dolphins
David Bearman: Dolphins
Dalton Miller: Dolphins
Jay Morrison: Dolphins
Dallas Robinson: Dolphins
Be sure to check out all of PFN’s Week 11 predictions.
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