For fantasy football managers, one of the biggest questions regarding the Miami Dolphins and the running backs situation for Week 11 is, how much will the expected return of De’Von Achane impact Raheem Mostert?
Should You Start Raheem Mostert or De’Von Achane This Week?
In the Pro Football Network Start/Sit Optimizer, our Consensus Rankings say that Achane is the player to start. His projected 13.3 points include 61 rushing yards, three catches, and 21 receiving yards. That projected stat line barely outperforms the consensus projections of Mostert’s 11.2 points.
However, when you isolate my rankings, I see Mostert outperforming Achane this week. While I expect both to have an impact in this week’s game, Mostert’s ability to get in the end zone will keep him as a major part of the Dolphins’ backfield.
Fantasy Outlook for Mostert This Week
Even with Achane’s expected return this week, I’m still expecting Mostert to get plenty of opportunities to carry the ball and get in the end zone. Mostert’s 11 rushing touchdowns leads the NFL — his 13 scrimmage touchdowns are tied for the most in the NFL — and he has scored a touchdown in seven of his nine games.
Additionally, Mostert leads the league in yards per carry at 5.6 (minimum: 75 rush attempts). And despite sharing duties for a good part of the season with Achane, Mostert ranks in the top 10 in rushing yards — ninth with 605.
Like Achane, Mostert is a big-play threat. Both players are tied (with two others) for the most rushing plays of 20+ yards, each with six.
These are the kind of numbers that get you subjected to the sideline when another player makes his return from an extended absence.
In the five games Achane has missed, Mostert averaged 12.2 rush attempts per game. In the four games Achane has played, Mostert averaged 12.0 rush attempts per game.
No real difference at all.
By the way, the optimizer projects Mostert to finish with 53 rushing yards, with two receptions and 16 receiving yards.
Fantasy Outlook for Achane This Week
Yes, the return of Achane from his knee injury will no doubt be welcomed by the Dolphins and fantasy managers. Although he has been limited to just four games this season, he’s certainly made an impact on the league.
Despite missing five games, Achane remains in the top seven of the league in scrimmage touchdowns (7), and he’s the second player in NFL history to score seven or more touchdowns in his first four career games.
The other: Bill Paschal of the New York Giants, back in 1943.
Achane still leads the NFL in scrimmage yards per game (131.8), so once he is fully comfortable back on the field, whether it’s Week 11 or the following week, it’s not unreasonable to expect similar production to what Achane provided before his injury.
I’m just willing to wait a week and see just how healthy he is before I start him over the NFL leader in rushing touchdowns.
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