Fantasy football is more than just the weekly head-to-head games we’ve all grown to love. On Underdog, fantasy managers can put their player-projection skills to the test by predicting player stat lines.
Here are my top Underdog plays for the Sunday slate of Week 11 games.
Top Underdog Pick’ems for Week 11
Underdog Pick’ems allows fantasy managers to predict stat lines and fantasy-point totals for almost all fantasy-relevant players. You can make two picks that pay out 3x, even money, or add more selections to your entry for higher payouts.
The levels are 3x, 6x, 10x, and 20x, progressing with each additional pick’em you add to your entry. Let’s look at this week’s Underdog Pick’ems for the Sunday slate.
For the Sunday slate, there are far more games than the individual prime-time games. Underdog entries are limited to five pick’ems. Most weeks, there will be more than five pick’ems I like. Additionally, hitting a five-pick-’em entry is hard. I don’t want to consistently go 3-2 or 4-1 and lose.
As a result, I will limit this list to my favorite picks of the week. I will try and keep it to no more than 10 maximum. At the bottom of this article, I used to provide my pick’em entry, which consists of three to four of my top pick’ems.
Unfortunately, due to new regulations in New York, I can no longer play these myself. To compensate, I will list the pick’ems in order of confidence.
Dorian Thompson-Robinson Lower Than 169.5 Passing Yards
We’ve seen Dorian Thompson-Robinson make one start this season. It was the most negative game script imaginable, as the Browns lost 28-3 to the Ravens. In that game, DTR attempted 36 passes yet threw for just 121 yards.
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Against the Steelers, the Browns’ defense should be able to do enough to keep them in the game. Plus, the Steelers are more vulnerable on the ground than through the air. Between the run-heavy game plan and DTR’s inexperience, I don’t think he even gets to 150.
Austin Ekeler Higher Than 94.5 Rush + Receiving Yards
This is not the type of pick’em I usually recommend, but I like Austin Ekeler to have a huge game this week. For starters, the Packers struggle at defending the run. They just surrendered a 100-yard rushing effort to Jaylen Warren while also letting Najee Harris run for 82 yards himself.
On the season, the Packers are allowing 105 rushing yards per game and 4.1 ypc to running backs.
Additionally, they haven’t been great at defending backs in the passing game. Their opponents throw to the running back 23.6% of the time. Ekeler is already one of the best-receiving backs in the league and commands a higher target share than the average back.
As if that isn’t reason enough, there’s also the matter of the Chargers being depleted at WR and Keenan Allen being banged up. All of this points to heavy Ekeler usage. He should see 12-14 carries and 6+ targets. A big game is inbound.
Rico Dowdle Higher Than 26.5 Rushing Yards
There’s no denying Rico Dowdle has outplayed Tony Pollard this season. And there have been rumblings that he will continue to eat into Pollard’s workload if Pollard can’t turn it around.
The Cowboys are double-digit road favorites in Carolina. They should experience a positive game script throughout, and there is serious blowout potential here. There is a chance Dowdle gets the entire fourth quarter to himself.
Even so, I don’t think he’ll need it. Dowdle can hit this number on 4-6 carries while the game is in question. The Panthers are terrible against the run. They’re allowing 118 yards on the ground and 4.6 ypc to opposing backs. Dowdle is averaging 4.5 ypc on the season. Given the projected game script and the opponent, Dowdle is very likely to reach 30+ rushing yards.
Dalton Schultz Lower Than 4.5 Receptions
Dalton Schultz has enjoyed a nice stretch of production. But it’s about to all come crashing down to due schedule.
MORE: Kyle Soppe’s Week 11 Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet
The Texans have faced a slew of teams that struggle against the tight end. This week, they get a Cardinals defense allowing just 3.7 receptions per game to the position. For as great as Schultz has been, he’s only caught more than four passes in two games this season. I don’t see that number changing this week.
Miles Sanders Lower Than 17.5 Rushing Yards
What a contract. Miles Sanders spent four years proving he was nothing more than a replacement-level talent, and the Panthers gave him four years, $25.4 million. Incredible.
Sanders had two carries for negative five yards last week. And that was against the Bears. This week, the Panthers are heavy underdogs against the much more formidable Cowboys defense. The Cowboys allow just 3.6 YPC to running backs. Sanders is splitting the backup role with Raheem Blackshear. He legitimately may not see a single carry.
Tyjae Spears Lower Than 19.5 Rushing Yards
Another week. Another Tyjae Spears lower. We know Tyjae Spears is going to see about 4-5 carries. While he is averaging 5.3 YPC on the season, he has consistently not run well against good run defenses.
The Jaguars allow 3.6 YPC, the fourth-lowest rate in the league. Their 63 rushing yards allowing to running backs is the fifth-lowest in the league. Derrick Henry remains the RB1. Plus, the Titans are likely to fall behind early in this one. That means Spears will be seeing work in the passing game, not on the ground. For this to lose, he will have to just bust a long one. I will bank on that not happening.
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