Sometimes, great players are victims of poor circumstances. That couldn’t be more true for RBs Josh Jacobs and Saquon Barkley. Saddled with backup quarterbacks on poor offenses, can fantasy football managers start either with confidence in Week 10 lineups?
Should You Start Josh Jacobs or Saquon Barkley This Week?
To jump-start the discussion, let’s see what the PFN Start/Sit Optimizer says. PFN Consensus Rankings currently have Jacobs as the start. He’s projected for 14.2 fantasy points, which includes 64.1 rushing yards, 0.5 touchdowns, and 2.9 receptions for 21.6 yards.
Jacobs’ projection is ahead of Barkley’s by the slimmest of margins — just 0.1 points.
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These are two talented running backs who have struggled to reach their ceilings because of the limited nature of their offenses. Jacobs is playing with rookie fourth-rounder Aidan O’Connell, while Barkley is playing with rookie UDFA Tommy DeVito.
The conditions are not ripe for high-level fantasy production. However, the state of the running back position in fantasy is as bad as it’s been in a long time. Despite the poor circumstances for each of these backs, both Jacobs and Barkley are locked-in RB1s. If you can even consider benching one of these guys, congratulations on having the most stacked team of all time.
Josh Jacobs’ Fantasy Outlook This Week
In the modern NFL, there are seldom few backs that see more than a 60-65% snap share. Jacobs is on the select few with more of an old-school role. He’s averaging a 77% snap share on the season. His 83.5% opportunity share is third in the league. In terms of raw volume, he currently leads all running backs in carries and is second in targets.
Last week, Jacobs took advantage of a favorable matchup against the Giants. After Daniel Jones went down, the Giants were unable to move the ball offensively, allowing the Raiders to feed Jacobs a season-high 26 carries.
Although he didn’t see a single target, that was because the Raiders didn’t have to throw. If Jacobs is carrying the ball 26 times for 98 yards and two touchdowns, he doesn’t need targets.
This week, things aren’t going to be as easy. The Jets have one of the best defenses in the NFL. But there is a silver lining. They are a run-funnel defense. And the Raiders want to run the ball anyway.
The Jets are allowing the seventh-most fantasy points per game to running backs. I just mentioned how Jacobs wasn’t targeted last week. I think that changes this week.
For starters, the Jets will put up much more of a fight than the Giants did last week. A competitive game means more passing. But more importantly, the Jets have been vulnerable to running backs through the air. When you think about why, it actually makes sense.
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The Jets are one of the toughest matchups for wide receivers. With Sauce Gardner and the Jets secondary locking things down, quarterbacks are more inclined to check it down to the running back. As a result, the Jets have seen a whopping 28.1% of passes against them go to the running back position. That is, by far, the highest rate in the league.
Prior to last week, Jacobs had seen at least four targets in seven straight games. He has an eight-catch game and two five-catch games on his résumé this season. We could be looking at another week where Jacobs is able to rack up the points per reception, making him a better-than-expected start this week.
Saquon Barkley’s Fantasy Outlook This Week
The outlook for Barkley isn’t as great. Back in Week 1, the Giants, with their starting quarterback, didn’t score a single point at home against the Cowboys.
In that game, Barkley ran for 51 yards and caught three passes for 12 yards. That was the entirety of his line.
Barkley will undoubtedly see more volume this week, as even when the Giants expectedly fall behind, they will continue to run the ball, much like they did last week.
Against the Raiders, Barkley saw 20 opportunities, including 16 on the ground, despite the game never being competitive. The week before, he carried the ball an absurd 36 times on an 89% snap share.
Much like Jacobs, Barkley is playing a three-down role and only coming out when he’s tired. The volume is elite. Unfortunately, it’s hard to imagine the production matching it.
The Cowboys allow the 10th-fewest ppg to running backs. But Barkley can overcome that. The real issue is the Giants are three-score underdogs. Their implied team total is a mere 10 points. I would argue Barkley has never played a game with lower touchdown upside.
Barkley has managed to score 14.3 and 15.8 fantasy points over his last two games without a touchdown. I have no doubt he’s capable of doing it again.
It is unlikely fantasy managers have 3+ players likely to score more than that available to start. As a result, Barkley should remain in fantasy lineups. However, he is more of a floor play this week.
Looking to make a trade in your fantasy league? Having trouble deciding who to start and who to sit? Setting DFS lineups? Check out PFN’s Free Fantasy Football Trade Analyzer, Start/Sit Optimizer, and DFS Lineup Optimizer to help you make the right decision!