Today’s slate features four games with totals below 40 points and the largest point spread of the season, so how should you go about making your NFL picks today?
We’re here to help guide you in the right direction with NFL Week 10 predictions, picks against the spread, overs/unders, and player props for every game today.
NFL Week 10 Predictions and Picks
All odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook as of 10:00 am EST. Click here to place your bets!
San Francisco 49ers vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Odds
- Spread
49ers -3 - Moneyline
49ers -170, Jaguars +142 - Total
45
Katz: This is another one that causes me physical pain because of how bad of a receiver I think Calvin Ridley is. However, I must put personal feelings aside to win money.
The Jaguars are coming out of their bye to face a 49ers defense that has been surprisingly vulnerable against the pass. They’re allowing 16.1 receptions per game to wide receivers, the second-most in the league. More specifically, they struggle to defend perimeter receivers.
Even if Christian Kirk catches 6-8 passes, where are the other 10-12 going? The Jaguars do not have a WR3 to speak of unless Zay Jones returns. But even if he does play, Ridley only needs five receptions to win this bet.
This game has sneaky shootout potential. Ridley caught six of 10 targets in the Jaguars final game before the bye. I’m banking on them working Ridley in early and often to move the ball against a 49ers defense that is far tougher at defending the run than the pass.
Pick: Calvin Ridley over 4.5 receptions (-110 at DraftKings)
New Orleans Saints vs. Minnesota Vikings Odds
- Spread
Saints -3 - Moneyline
Saints -155, Vikings +130 - Total
41
Blewis: The Vikings’ defense has quietly improved a lot under new defensive coordinator Brian Flores, as they have improved from 32nd in yards allowed per game in 2022 to 15th this season. By EPA/play, success rate, and DVOA, they’re 16th, 15th, and 10th.
For the season, the Saints have only scored 21+ points three times, but in those three games, they forced a combined 10 turnovers defensively. So basically, for the Saints to go over their team total, they need to create a bunch of takeaways.
On the other side, this is also a sell high of Josh Dobbs after his terrific performance last week in his first game on his new team. This Saints defense is a major step up from the Falcons last week, and should make life far more difficult for Dobbs.
Pick: Under 41 (-112 at DraftKings)
Tennessee Titans vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Odds
- Spread
Buccaneers -2.5 - Moneyline
Titans +120, Buccaneers -142 - Total
39
Blewis: In a week with quite a few low totals, this one doesn’t make much sense to me. These are the 26th and 27th ranked passing defenses by EPA/play, and one of them allowed 470 yards and five passing TDs just last week.
This is simultaneously a fade of two overrated defenses and the support of two capable quarterbacks. In two games, Will Levis has already shown a lot of flashes of his arm talent and his ability to throw the ball deep downfield. He is currently leading all quarterbacks in average depth of target, and he should have an easier time on a long week against this Bucs pass defense than in Pittsburgh on a short week.
On the other side, Baker Mayfield has been an above-average quarterback this season, as he is currently 13th in EPA + CPOE composite, just behind Justin Herbert and ahead of Trevor Lawrence. This Titans defense excels at stopping the run and struggles at defending the pass, and luckily for Tampa, they can’t run the ball anyway but have a solid passing attack.
Pick: Over 38.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
Katz: It is not very often that I give out two-unit plays. I couldn’t resist the temptation with Will Levis’ passing yardage total.
Levis has thrown for 238 and 262 yards in each of his first two starts, well above this number. While the Titans want to be a run-first offense, that is not the way to beat the Bucs’ pass-funnel defense.
The Bucs just got torched by C.J. Stroud to the tune of 470 yards and five touchdowns. All we’re asking Levis to do is put up half that.
MORE: NFL Team Over/Under Standings
The Bucs allow 294 passing yards per game, the second-most in the league. This is due in large part to their inability to pressure the quarterback, where they rank second-worst with just a 26.6% pressure rate. Given Levis’ willingness to push the ball downfield, I think he sails over this number rather easily.
Pick: Will Levis over 217.5 passing yards (-115 at FanDuel)
Cleveland Browns vs. Baltimore Ravens Odds
- Spread
Ravens -6.5 - Moneyline
Browns +230, Ravens -285 - Total
38
Bearman: Defense. Defense. Defense. These two teams rank 1-2 in yards allowed and 1-3 in points allowed. When we last saw this matchup, I played the under 37.5, and they didn’t disappoint, finishing 28-3 in favor of the Ravens.
The warning on this bet is that the Ravens themselves have scored 31+ points in each of their last three games.
But those teams didn’t have the Browns defense. I expect another low-scoring game between two good defenses and a not-so-good Cleveland offense. If you’re worried about a Ravens blowout, take the Browns’ team total under.
Pick: Under 38.5 (-115 at FanDuel)
Katz: After the Browns traded away Donovan Peoples-Jones, that seemingly elevated Elijah Moore into the clear WR2 role…or did it? Last week, rookie Cedric Tillman played more snaps than Moore. While Moore ran three more routes, it wouldn’t surprise me to see that flip in Tillman’s favor as he gets more acclimated to the NFL.
Moore has caught exactly two passes in each of his past two games for no more than 30 yards. He’s gone over this number just once in his last five games, and that was against a weak Colts pass defense.
This week, Moore has to deal with a Ravens defense that leads the NFL in fewest yards per route run allowed at 10.1. They are allowing a paltry 57.6% catch rate to WRs, fourth-best in the league.
Moore is not talented enough to command targets nor beat a defense this good. It wouldn’t surprise me if he goes catchless.
Pick: Elijah Moore under 33.5 receiving yards (-110 at DraftKings)
Houston Texans vs. Cincinnati Bengals Odds
- Spread
Bengals -5.5 - Moneyline
Texans +190, Bengals -230 - Total
47
Katz: Holy projections, Batman! What is going on here? Devin Singletary is going to reach 64 total yards? How? When? Care to guess how many times this season Singletary has amassed more than 63 total yards in a game?
Of course, past performance doesn’t guarantee future performance. And the circumstances are changed with Dameon Pierce out. But Pierce’s absence is not going to suddenly turn Singletary into an efficient runner. And even with Pierce out, Singletary’s passing game role is not going to change. That job belongs to Mike Boone.
Essentially, for this to lose, Pierce is going to have to run for all of it. Even against a Bengals run defense that hasn’t been great, I just can’t see the Texans running enough or Singletary being efficient enough to do it.
Pick: Devin Singletary under 63.5 rushing + receiving yards (-115 at DraftKings)
Green Bay Packers vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Odds
- Spread
Steelers -3 - Moneyline
Packers +142, Steelers -170 - Total
38.5
Bearman: I’m not going to pretend here. I have no idea who is going to win this game, so picking a side does not interest me. Both teams play well one week and look awful the next.
What does interest me is the same bet I have made for five straight weeks, going 4-1: Steelers team total under. And because they accidentally scored 20 last Thursday, the number is 21.5 (-125) at DraftKings. Under, please.
Pick: Steelers under 21.5 (-125 at DraftKings)
Katz: I believe Aaron Jones is back. Last week, he played a season-high 57% of the snaps and out-carried AJ Dillon 20-9. Jones came out of the game with no setbacks to his hamstring. That leads me to believe he can continue handling a large workload.
The Steelers have been quite vulnerable on the ground, allowing 112 rushing yards per game to running backs. That is fourth-most in the league. This game has around a three-point spread, meaning neither team should run away. That should keep the run in play the entire game, allowing Jones to post 70+ yards for the second consecutive week.
Pick: Aaron Jones over 51.5 rushing yards (-115 at Caesars)
Soppe: The Packers are allowing just 2.3 yards per carry over their past two games, and if that continues against the seventh-worst YPC offense, the short pass game could well supplement it, and that is where Johnson’s numbers come in bulk.
Johnson is back to earning targets at an elite rate (33.3% over the past two weeks), and we’ve seen some possession receivers rack up the volume when facing Green Bay:
- Jakobi Meyers, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Michael Thomas: 28.9% target share
I like both his catches and his reception yardage props this week, though I do slightly prefer the yardage option, as the Steelers have shown some interest in working him further downfield.
Pick: Diontae Johnson over 61.5 receiving yards (-115 at DraftKings)
Blewis: Well, we sure have a lot of picks for this game!
This is a matchup of young offenses led by inexperienced quarterbacks that struggle mightily to score in the first half of games. The Steelers and Packers are 28th and 32nd in first-half scoring this season, with a combined average of 11.4 points per game. Yikes!
The only thing that makes me nervous with this pick is that these are two turnover-prone quarterbacks. They each scored touchdowns in the first half last week, but the Steelers snapped a six-week drought, and the Packers it was their first since Week 2.
Pick: First Half Under 19.5 (-118 at DraftKings)
Atlanta Falcons vs. Arizona Cardinals Odds
- Spread
Falcons -2.5 - Moneyline
Falcons -135, Cardinals +114 - Total
43.5
Katz: How many weeks in a row? Seriously. How many? Bijan Robinson hasn’t gone over 80 total yards in a game since Week 4. His role continues to diminish as Arthur Smith pushes the inferior Tyler Allgeier ahead of the talented rookie. Yet, the line keeps being set as if Robinson is the clear lead back.
Of course, Robinson is talented enough to break a couple of big runs, costing us the under. Well, we’ve taken this each of the past two weeks, and we’ve gotten two sweat-free wins. Until we see something change in the Falcons backfield, or until the sportsbooks correctly adjust this line lower, we will continue to milk this cash cow.
Pick: Bijan Robinson under 81.5 rushing + receiving yards (-115 at DraftKings)
Detroit Lions vs. Los Angeles Chargers Odds
- Spread
Lions -2.5 - Moneyline
Lions -135, Chargers +114 - Total
48.5
Katz: Normally, when I see a line that jumps out at me, I have to bet it right away because it will move against me. This line opened at 48.5, and I had a feeling if I waited, I could get a better number because Austin Ekeler is a household name. I was correct, as this moved to 51.5. If it ends up higher, I’m okay with that because I like it at this number. I liked it at 48.5, too.
Ekeler has been terrible as a runner this season. At 28 years old, he may be declining, but it’s being masked because he remains an excellent receiver. That is not uncommon. We’ve seen many great running backs decline on the ground while their ability to excel as receivers ages better.
MORE: NFL Against the Spread Standings
Ekeler has not run for 50 yards in a game since Week 1. Since returning from his three-game absence, he’s averaging 2.6 yards per carry. The Lions are a pass-funnel defense. They allow just 3.7 YPC and a mere 57 rushing yards per game to running backs.
I’m expecting the Chargers to go with a very pass-heavy script this week, utilizing designed screens to Ekeler instead of carries. And when they do run, Ekeler is unlikely to be effective, keeping him well short of this number.
Pick: Austin Ekeler under 51.5 rushing yards (-114 at FanDuel)
Soppe: For the season, 84.6% of Goff’s rushing yards came on a single carry, and he has one whole rushing yard since the beginning of October.
The Chargers are a bottom-five team in terms of preventing yardage per pass, and a large part of that is that they don’t get home — bottom five in QB contact rate.
I’m not telling you anything you don’t already know: Goff has zero interest in running the ball. I like the Lions to win this game, and that brings kneel-downs into the picture, something that could bail us out should Goff pick up a few yards on a QB sneak or some other fluky play.
Pick: Jared Goff under 1.5 rushing yards (-105 at DraftKings)
New York Giants vs. Dallas Cowboys Odds
- Spread
Cowboys -17.5 - Moneyline
Giants +850, Cowboys -1650 - Total
38.5
Broyles: The Cowboys enter this game steaming mad following a loss last week against the Philadelphia Eagles. Dallas faces the downtrodden Giants defense during a season where New York has nothing to play for. Dallas throttles the Giants in this one, while Prescott and his pass-catchers play catch all afternoon. Take the over on Dak’s passing yards and passing touchdown props.
Picks: Dak Prescott over 247.5 passing yards (-115 at DraftKings), over 1.5 passing touchdowns (-150 at DraftKings)
Washington Commanders vs. Seattle Seahawks Odds
- Spread
Seahawks -6 - Moneyline
Commanders +225, Seahawks -278 - Total
44.5
Blewis: In the first eight weeks of the season, the Seahawks offense ranked 8th in EPA/play and 4fourthh in success rate. Now, they rank just 14th and ninth after two road games in a row against the Browns and Ravens, the two best defenses in the NFL.
This week, they return home to face a Commanders defense that is a bottom-five unit in the NFL. This sets up as an ideal get-right spot for this offense and Geno Smith especially, who has struggled in recent weeks.
Pick: Seahawks over 26.5 (+105 at DraftKings)
Katz: I was very tempted to make this one a 2 unit play as well, but I refrained. I may regret that.
This is a great spot for Antonio Gibson to see significant usage. Over the past two weeks, the Commanders returned to their two-man split of Brian Robinson and Gibson. Rookie Chris Rodriguez didn’t play a snap.
Gibson hasn’t been much work on the ground, but he’s been very good through the air. Gibson has totaled at least 24 receiving yards in four of his last five games.
Most importantly, the Commanders are not the type to just run the ball while trailing. If it doesn’t work, or if they fall behind, they will completely abandon the run. We saw this happen a few weeks ago on Thursday night when they fell behind early to the Bears. They didn’t call a single-run play the entire second half.
If the Commanders are forced to go pass-heavy, Gibson will see over a 50% snap share, as he did against the Bears. If he runs another 22 routes or so like he did last week, he should have no trouble catching a couple of balls for at least 14 yards.
I’m expecting a big-time bounce-back performance from the Seahawks at home. If they go up early by multiple scores, as I suspect, we will see heavy doses of Gibson, allowing him to easily surpass this number.
Pick: Antonio Gibson over 13.5 receiving yards (-115 at DraftKings)
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