If you told me before the season that by after Week 10, we would be discussing whether the Buffalo Bills have a realistic chance of missing the playoffs, I would assume Josh Allen was injured, or you’re crazy.
But Allen is completely healthy, and if you think they might miss the postseason, you’re normal.
What Is the Bills’ Current Playoff Picture?
After losing at home to the Broncos on Monday Night Football, the Bills are 5-5 and currently three spots back of the final playoff spot in a very competitive AFC. They’re also a game and a half behind the Miami Dolphins in the AFC East standings.
With the AFC East increasingly looking like a long shot, the Bills will be fighting for one of the three Wild Card spots, and there is a lot of competition. The Bills will be competing with the three AFC North teams that don’t win the division, as well as the Houston Texans and Los Angeles Chargers. Even the Indianapolis Colts are ahead of them at the moment as well, and although they do have the same record as the Las Vegas Raiders, the Bills have the tie breaker over them due to winning their head-to-head matchup.
Why the Bills Will Make the Playoffs
If you’re a believer in the Bills, it’s because of their offense. Despite losing four of their last six games, the Bills are still one of the elite offenses in the NFL, and entering Week 10, they were second in DVOA, third in EPA/play, and first in success rate. Even though Josh Allen has had his struggles at times this season, he still remains one of the best in the NFL, and along with Stefon Diggs, are capable of carrying this offense into the playoffs.
Why the Bills Will Not Make the Playoffs
The Achilles heel for the Bills is their defense, and that has especially been the case since losing Tre’Davious White, Matt Milano, and DaQuan Jones to season-ending injuries. Since those three players have been injured, the Bills defense has dropped from eighth in EPA/play to 30th.
In the first half of the season, the Bills’ defense had easy matchups against bad offenses such as the New York Jets, Las Vegas Raiders, New York Giants, and the New England Patriots. Their schedule gets significantly harder, however, as half of their remaining opponents are top-ten offenses.
Bills Playoff Odds and Best Bets
Going into Week 10, the Bills were -128 to make the playoffs and +104 to miss the playoffs at FanDuel Sportsbook. At the start of the season, the Bills were a long shot at +225 to miss the postseason for the first time since 2018.
Note: these bets were made before the Bills’ Week 10 loss to the Broncos
Blewis: I would take a flier on the Bills to win the AFC East, but they have a much harder schedule than the Dolphins for the rest of the season, making it hard to believe they’ll be able to surpass them in the division standings. But despite having the fourth-hardest remaining schedule, according to Tankathon, I’m not counting them out of the playoffs just yet.
Of the teams currently in the playoff picture, I feel pretty confident that the Steelers will drop out. They’re 5-3 … but a fraudulent 5-3 team, as they haven’t out-gained any of their opponents this season and have a point differential of -30. I also have more confidence in the Bills securing a playoff spot than the Browns, Chargers, Jets, and Texans.
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According to ESPN FPI, the Bills have the fifth-best chance of making the playoffs in the AFC at 56.6%, and this lines up almost exactly with the implied probability of their -128 odds to make the playoffs at FanDuel (56.14%). I wouldn’t say there’s much value here, but it wouldn’t be a bad bet to make either, and if you like it, I would recommend taking it before their Week 10 matchup against the Denver Broncos.
Best Bet: Bills to make the playoffs (-128 at FanDuel)
Bearman: Not something I thought I would have said back in September, but I am jumping all over the +104 odds on the Bills to miss the playoffs.
The Bills have already lost four games, more than they lost all of last season when they looked like they would be in Super Bowl contention. This year, they have looked far from a Super Bowl contender, and it started right out of the gate with a blown lead loss on Monday Night Football to the Jets, despite Aaron Rodgers being ruled out after four plays.
After looking like the team we expected from them in an impressive three-game stretch vs. Las Vegas, Washington, and especially Miami, the Bills have not looked good since. They’re 2-3 in their last five games, with one-score wins over the Giants and Buccaneers.
Now, look at their schedule for the rest of the season. Their eight games left to be played include road games at Philly, Kansas City, Miami, and the Los Angeles Chargers, and home matchups against the Jets and Cowboys. Those are six difficult games, and if they split them, that’s already seven losses. With a crowded AFC playoff picture, I’m taking the plus money on them to miss it.
Best Bet: Bills to miss the playoffs (+104 at FanDuel)
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