The Detroit Lions‘ preview takes a look at the distribution of RB touches, while the Los Angeles Chargers‘ outlook looks to determine if there is a secondary pass catcher that you can count on in fantasy football.
Detroit Lions at Los Angeles Chargers
- Spread: Lions -2.5
- Total: 48.5
- Lions implied points: 25.5
- Chargers implied points: 23
Quarterbacks
Jared Goff: Those who have been riding Goff this season have had their moments (three top-six finishes), but the downs have put them well behind the eight-ball (four finishes as QB18 or worse). Which version do we see on Sunday with the Lions coming out of their bye?
I lean toward the former. Goff’s three big games have all come against defenses that rank below average in QB hurry rate — a box the “Bolts” check. In Detroit’s three games prior to the bye, we saw them put their faith in Goff (44.7 attempts per game, over 270 passing yards in all three of those games), something that figures to again be the case in this spot.
That’s not that Goff is a risk-free proposition (he’s not), but with a significant rest advantage and a good matchup, he’s easily a QB1 for me this week that I’m willing to trust.
Justin Herbert: The Chargers rarely play in one-sided games (in either direction), so I’m not reading too much into Herbert’s underwhelming Week 9 (QB25). The convincing win over the Jets didn’t require much of Herbert, and Kellen Moore elected not to force the issue. That’s not going to be the case this weekend with a rested Lions team coming to town.
You can feel good about trotting Herbert out in your starting lineup. He has five top-eight finishes at the position this season and is on a career-best pace in terms of touchdown-to-interception rate. I’d say this shift in the offensive system is working.
Herbert’s outlook looks good, but we can’t overlook the concerns when it comes to his pass catchers. Joshua Palmer is out for at least another three games, Gerald Everett missed time recently, and Quentin Johnston has yet to prove himself at the professional level.
Keep an eye on the non-Keenan Allen pass catchers in this game — if they step up, Herbert is a Tier 2 QB (with Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow) moving forward that you can count on. If his supporting cast struggles to help elevate him, he falls outside of that tier and has a scary range of outcomes in the short term.
Running Backs
David Montgomery: The veteran back has missed consecutive games (ribs), but the Lions never entertained the idea of putting Montgomery on IR, which would point to a return this week.
Montgomery has returned fantasy-starter value in all four of his healthy games this season, and that includes a pair of top-five finishes. Does Jahmyr Gibbs’ recent success eat into his role a bit? Probably. But does it matter?
Even if Gibbs’ development results in a 20% decline in usage for Montgomery, he’d project for 18.6 touches. That’s more than enough to return value.
At this moment, I have Montgomery as a solid RB2 with upward trajectory. Assuming the positive reports continue to roll in, I’ll elevate him over both Bijan Robinson and Kenneth Walker III. I’m willing to trust this Lions offense in this spot, and that means sliding their starting RB right into my lineup in his return to action.
Jahmyr Gibbs: All the rookie has done over his past two games is rack up 315 yards and a pair of touchdowns on 51 touches. No big deal. Just an elite prospect making the most of the opportunity he was given!
MORE: Fantasy Football Updated RB Dynasty Rankings Week 10
Gibbs was held to under 10 carries in all three games in which he played alongside a healthy Montgomery in September. I’d be shocked if that continued through this week, though I will continue to project Montgomery for roughly a 60% share of the RB touches.
I have Gibbs ranked as a high-end Flex option this week. He checks in just behind the backs with a solid touch floor (ex. Chub Hubbard) and ahead of those who essentially require a touchdown to be worthy of a roster spot (ex. Brian Robinson).
Austin Ekeler: I don’t want to say Ekeler’s performance on Monday night against the Jets was underwhelming, but his fantasy production was about as low as it could possibly be for a game in which he ran for a pair of scores and saw seven targets.
Ekeler is the second-best running back in fantasy. Plain and simple. He’s matchup-proof and the focal point of a strong offense. I’m not at all worried about his three drops last week. His role is as fantasy-friendly as anyone this side of Christian McCaffrey.
Wide Receivers
Amon-Ra St. Brown: The Sun God lacks the highlight-reel plays that the other elite receivers seem to produce on a consistent basis, but there’s no denying that his week-to-week usage ranks him among the most valuable assets in all of fantasy. This season (per the Week 10 Cheat Sheet):
- Six top-20 finishes
- Five 100-yard performances
- Three games with 12+ targets
St. Brown has proven to be one of the best buys at drafts this summer, and I don’t expect the third-worst per-pass defense to slow him down even a little.
Jameson Williams: The acquisition of WR Donovan Peoples-Jones told me that the Lions aren’t willing to wait on Williams — at least not short term, while they have a real chance to make a playoff run.
Williams (seven catches on 24 career targets) has yet to prove he’s capable of being a consistent target-earner, and while the big play is very much in his profile, Peoples-Jones is plenty capable in that regard. He’s averaging 15.7 yards per catch across his career.
Dynasty managers can (and should) wait on Williams, but those in the redraft streets don’t have the luxury of waiting on development and can feel fine about moving on from a player with one top-90 finish this season.
Keenan Allen: The 10,000-yard man is my second favorite receiver in this game. That’s about the only negative I can say about the veteran.
He was able to catch eight of nine targets in a tough matchup against the Jets last week, an impressive accomplishment when you consider that New York didn’t really have to respect any other pass catcher in this offense.
MORE: Keenan Allen Fantasy Value
If we are nitpicking, Allen hasn’t scored in three straight games after scoring five times in a four-game stretch. However, his volume allows him to return usable fantasy production in weeks in which he doesn’t score. St. Brown is the better fantasy option, but in terms of points per dollar spent at your draft, Allen holds the edge in value.
Quentin Johnston: By no means am I throwing in the towel on the No. 21 overall pick long term, but if Johnston was ever going to prove himself as an asset in redraft leagues, it was last week.
How did he respond to the challenge? He earned three targets on a team-high 35 routes.
Development isn’t linear. Puka Nacua was able to produce the second he stepped onto an NFL field, but that’s more the exception than the rule.
I’m holding my Johnston stock in dynasty formats, but in redraft, you can move on if you’re in need of immediate help. I’d hold him in deeper formats simply because of my faith in this offense — not due to anything he has shown on the field up to this point.
Tight Ends
Sam LaPorta: The rookie is pacing for the best fantasy introduction to the league by a TE in recent memory, so why would we expect it to slow? His impressive stat line (eight games: 43 catches for 434 yards and four scores) is not the result of a singular performance. He’s been a top-10 performer at the position in five of his past seven games.
He’s reached 65 yards just once this season, but with the volume and touchdown equity, there’s no way to dismiss what LaPorta has done in the first half of Year 1. You can feel great about penciling him in this week and every week moving forward — you’re rostering a true difference-maker.
Gerald Everett and Donald Parham: The snaps, routes, and targets were essentially split down the middle for these two, and I’m not overly interested in dealing with a TE committee if I can avoid it (see: Falcons, Atlanta).
I continue to rank Everett slightly over Parham due to his route versatility, but neither is a top-15 option for me this week, and that’s going to be the case more often than not moving forward.
Should You Start Jared Goff or C.J. Stroud?
As encouraging as this season has been for Houston Texans rookie QB Stroud, I have to draw the line somewhere in terms of how high he can rise up my rankings. I have him as a top-10 play this week, but with Goff holding a significant scheduling edge (off the bye and in a Los Angeles Chargers defense who is on short rest) and having an elevated floor that comes with an alpha target-earner in WR St. Brown, he’s my play here.
MORE: Fantasy News Tracker
I think you’re in good shape either way, but should you hold both of these options or are looking to make a DFS decision, it’s Goff for me.
Should You Start Jahmyr Gibbs or Brian Robinson?
Give me Gibbs here. I understand that his next game with 10 carries in a healthy game with RB David Montgomery game will be his first, but I’m chasing his upside and assuming a little bit of rational coaching.
Detroit HC Dan Campbell wasted no time in calling this backfield Gibbs’ following the Montgomery injury, and that tells me that he is confident in his rookie back. Maybe Montgomery gets his feature role back with time, but in his first week back with Gibbs playing well, I have a hard time seeing him push 20 touches.
If Gibbs can make this close in terms of touches with Washington Commanders RB Brian Robinson, he’s a good bet to outproduce Washington’s bell-cow.
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