The Atlanta Falcons‘ outlook evaluates the fantasy football value of Bijan Robinson, while the Arizona Cardinals‘ fantasy preview takes a look at their returning stars.
Atlanta Falcons at Arizona Cardinals
- Spread: Falcons -1
- Total: 42
- Falcons implied points: 21.5
- Cardinals implied points: 20.5
Quarterbacks
Taylor Heinicke: He completed his first four passes last week against the Vikings, and they all went to different players, but that was about the extent of his success. He finished with 268 passing yards, but he completed just half of his passes after that initial spurt of efficiency and saw 43.5% of his points for the day come on a pass behind the line of scrimmage.
Heinicke is a fine option for the Falcons, but I’m betting the Under on a repeat of his 14.7 fantasy points, even in a better matchup. He’s in play for Superflex managers who would otherwise be stuck with a WR3/WR4 type — that’s about it.
Kyler Murray: When this game kicks off, it will have been 334 days since Murray threw a pass in a game. While I wouldn’t blame you if you wanted to take the patient route, that isn’t a luxury that Kansas City Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes, Miami Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa, or Philadelphia Eagles QB Jalen Hurts managers have.
On top of the weekly QBs who are on bye, we’ve got an underwhelming Jacksonville Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence facing a rested (and angry) 49ers defense and a sporadic Cleveland Browns QB Deshaun Watson in Baltimore. The fact of the matter is that the QB position really isn’t as deep as we thought it would be, and that makes the upside of Murray’s skill set worth a look.
MORE: Kyler Murray Injury Update
Over his final seven games in Arizona, QB Joshua Dobbs’ average finish was QB13. That’s the range in which Murray deserves to be ranked this week, and I have him a shade higher against an Atlanta Falcons defense that pressures the quarterback with regularity.
Murray’s path to fantasy success isn’t exclusively through the air, and a matchup like this that could have him on the move gives him a reasonable floor/ceiling combination, as long as his health is in order.
Are you willing to take that leap of faith? I’m rolling the dice.
Running Backs
Bijan Robinson: “Sometimes, his impact away from the ball can open things up.”
Awesome. Arthur Smith is trying to play 3D chess, and those who drafted Robinson in the first round this summer are forced to suffer through this nonsense. I maintain that the fantasy process on Robinson this offseason was sound, but not all good decisions are paid off with good results.
Robinson hasn’t had 15 carries in a game since against Green Bay in Week 2, and the prospect who was being compared to Saquon Barkley (91 catches as a rookie) has looked more like the retired version of Charles Barkley in the passing game lately, with more targets (nine) than receiving yards (eight), per the Week 10 Cheat Sheet.
I wish I could paint an optimistic picture moving forward. It’s tough. Robinson did out-snap Tyler Allgeier 42-24 last week (24-10 edge in routes) and faces a below-average defense in terms of both red zone and YPC. So there’s that.
Atlanta has played five straight one-possession games. If Robinson isn’t going to be heavily featured in those scripts, when will he?
The snap share and raw talent in a run-oriented offense keep him as an RB2 for me this week, but Robinson’s floor is far lower than I would have ever guessed this summer. There’s no denying the risk that is involved with him.
Tyler Allgeier: Allgeier found the end zone for the first time since Week 1 last week against the Vikings but was again underwhelming with his work. For the eighth consecutive game, Allgeier failed to have a carry gain 15 yards, and yet, he’s just four touches behind Robinson for the season (yes, we had Headachegate play into that, but still). What a world.
Allgeier got his hands on the ball 14 times last week, the exact usage we’ve been conditioned to expect. Why would it change now?
His lack of explosive potential leaves him outside of my top 30 at the position, but Allgeier’s consistent work makes him at least worth a look for managers seeking a Flex option with a reasonable floor.
James Conner: Prior to a knee injury that landed him on IR, Conner had a pair of RB1 weeks, and in his four healthy games, his average weekly finish was RB20. A low-end RB2, which is exactly where I have him penciled in this week in his return to action.
I have a hard time thinking the Cardinals would activate the veteran without some sort of confidence in his ability to hold up. That has me projecting him for 14-17 touches against a Falcons defense that has overachieved through nine weeks.
MORE: James Conner Injury Update
Emari Demercado and Keaontay Ingram have totaled 82 carries and 267 yards (3.3 ypc), giving this team little reason to stick with them. Combine that with the upside that Murray could add to this offense under center, and I’m comfortable in moving Conner from my IR slot to my starting lineup this week.
Tony Jones Jr. led this backfield in snaps last week, but there’s no need to handcuff Conner. The Cards have yet to go on their bye and still have games against the Steelers, 49ers, and Eagles this fantasy season — it’s Conner or bust in this backfield.
Wide Receivers
Drake London: The super sophomore sat out the loss to the Vikings with a groin injury. This offense isn’t exactly tailored to fantasy production through the air, but it’s worth noting that Heinicke’s aDOT last week — even without his WR1 active — was 32.4% higher than that of Desmond Ridder this season.
I’m cautiously optimistic that the change under center positively impacts London’s value, though, without a complete offensive overhaul, he’s still going to carry plenty of risk. Assuming health, I have London just inside of my top 30 at the position against the fourth-worst pass defense in terms of yards per pass allowed.
Marquise Brown: Any buy-low window on Hollywood could close this weekend if Murray is, in fact, under center as we expect. Over the past two weeks, Brown has proven plenty capable of earning targets (17), but those have been all sorts of empty (67 yards).
He did post three straight top-20 finishes in Weeks 3-5, so we know the potential for him to win routes is there. However, with an average finish of WR46 since that run, it’s evident the QB play has submarined his value.
MORE: PFN Consensus Rankings
I currently have Brown as WR36. I’m hedging a bit. Weekly rankings require you to take into account all possible outcomes, so I have to figure in some risk when it comes to Murray. If all goes well this week from a health perspective, Brown will move inside of my top 30 next week with a low-end WR2 ranking certainly possible.
Ronald Moore: He was handed the ball on Arizona’s first rush attempt last week and has multiple carries in five straight games. There’s a world in which Moore satisfies a unique role when this offense is at full strength, but that’s something I’m willing to be a week late rather than a week early on.
He’s yet to hit 35 receiving yards in a game this season, and if Michael Wilson (shoulder) returns to the field, that’s unlikely to change. I want to see how Moore is used with Murray under center, but I doubt it’ll be meaningful for fantasy purposes.
Tight Ends
Kyle Pitts: He ran five more routes than Jonnu Smith last week, but it was the veteran who took a screen pass 60 yards to the house.
While the 39-38 snap split isn’t ideal, Pitts did catch four of his five targets from Heinicke for 56 yards, his second-best showing in yardage this season. If Heinicke does continue to push the ball downfield more than Ridder did, that puts Pitts in a decent spot to move to the front of the TE blob tier.
I currently have Pitts ranked as TE11, a ranking that is building in some growth in Heinicke’s second start.
Trey McBride: The second-year TE was the first Cardinals player to record a catch last week, a great sign following his 10-catch effort against the Ravens in Week 8 that was fueled by garbage time.
After that early reception, McBride caught a case of tight end-itis — two receptions for 10 yards over the next 59 minutes and 35 seconds of action.
He’s a blobber. I have my hopes that Murray under center can be the tide that lifts all boats in this offense. Maybe that gets McBride to a top-12 ranking after this week, but I’m taking a cautious approach in this spot. He’s my TE14.
Should You Start Bijan Robinson or Rachaad White?
What a world we live in. I mentioned Robinson’s lack of consistent usage despite all of the talent in the world – well, White is the exact opposite. His role in the passing game is borderline elite, and with that elevating his floor in a good spot, he’s my play this week.
MORE: Fantasy News Tracker
Robinson can move back into my top 10 for the rest of the season with role development, but after nine weeks of proof that Smith has no intent on allowing that to happen, I’m done ranking it as if it will.
Should You Start James Conner or Brian Robinson?
There is a certain level of risk that comes with playing a veteran running back in his first game back from IR for a bad team, but I’m plugging in Conner over Robinson this week.
Robinson’s touch count has been limited due to Washington ranking as a top-5 team in terms of pass rate over expectation, but he’s been able to pay the fantasy bills with touchdowns on a weekly basis.
That’s a dangerous way to live. Conner was averaging nearly 20 touches per game in September, and if he approaches that number in his return to action, I’m comfortable in saying that he will outproduce the Commanders’ top back.
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