There are now only five weeks remaining in the fantasy football regular season. It is time for managers to make decisions purely based on the fantasy playoffs. Either make the moves necessary to get in or make the moves necessary to give yourself the best chance to win.
One such decision might be whether Davante Adams or Justin Jefferson is the better fantasy asset for your team. Should fantasy managers be looking to trade Adams for Jefferson ahead of Week 10?
Should You Trade Davante Adams for Justin Jefferson in Week 10?
Allow me to preface this by saying 1-for-1 same-position trades are almost never a good idea. The goal of trading is for both teams to improve. That is quite literally impossible in a 1-for-1 same-position trade because one of those players is going to score more fantasy points. Thus, there will be a clear winner.
That doesn’t mean we can’t discuss the idea of a trade where two WRs are the centerpiece, though. In this scenario, you would be building a trade around Adams and Jefferson.
Adams’ Rest-of-Season Fantasy Value
Here is what we know for sure: Adams is still very, very good at football. Watching him play, he has not lost a step at all. Even one month shy of his 31st birthday, he remains as elite as ever.
MORE: Fantasy News Tracker
The issue with Adams’ production has been his offense, namely quarterback play. In another world, Adams caught about five passes for 130 yards and two touchdowns against the Lions two weeks ago, and his fantasy value is much higher than it is right now. Instead, Adams has a total of five receptions for 45 yards over his last two games.
On the season, Adams has been incredibly disappointing overall. You got what you paid for with 20.4 fantasy points in Week 2. Adams dropped 42.2 in Week 3, carrying teams to wins. In Week 4, Adams posted a respectable 15.5 fantasy points.
Outside of those three games, Adams has been a borderline disaster. In his other six games, Adams is averaging 8.0 PPG. He’s scored more than 8.5 fantasy points in just one of his last five games. Not only has Adams been largely unstartable this season, but his performance suggests he should be a drop candidate.
To be clear, I am not suggesting anyone drop Adams. Please don’t do that. I am merely putting into perspective how much of a problem he’s been for fantasy managers.
The biggest question for fantasy managers is whether Adams can turn it around. I think there’s a lot of reason for concern.
Two of the Raiders’ next three games are against some of the toughest matchups for wide receivers (the Jets and Chiefs). Then, the Raiders are on bye in Week 13.
If Adams only has a quality outing against the Dolphins in Week 11, which is far from a guarantee, we could be heading into Week 14 with Adams having been startable in just two of the past nine weeks (including the bye).
The Raiders have a nice schedule from Weeks 14-17, with only a Week 16 game against the Chiefs as an imposing foe. But odds are, if you have Adams, you aren’t exactly a lock to make the playoffs. And he may not help you get there.
Jefferson’s Rest-of-Season Fantasy Value
While Adams has been disappointing, Jefferson literally hasn’t played football since Week 5. The good news is he’s definitely returning, barring a setback. The Vikings opened Jefferson’s 21-day window today. He will practice, but according to Ian Rapaport, there is no rush to bring him back.
Rightfully so, the Vikings want to make sure Jefferson is fully recovered, as hamstring strains have a high risk of recurring when players return too soon. Head coach Kevin O’Connell all but confirmed Jefferson won’t play this week.
MORE: PFN Consensus Rankings
We know what Jefferson can do when healthy. He is arguably the best wide receiver in football. He scored between 24 and 27.9 fantasy points in each of his first four games before an underwhelming Week 5 that ended with him straining his hamstring.
Much like Adams, though, Jefferson will have to deal with diminished quarterback play. We’ve never seen Jefferson without Kirk Cousins. Josh Dobbs has played better than anyone could’ve expected, but he is not as good as Cousins, and it’s unlikely to expect the same level of production from Jefferson with Dobbs as he had with Cousins.
Additionally, the Vikings’ remaining schedule is brutal. They don’t face a single defense that is more favorable than 15th for WRs.
With that said, we’ve never seen Jefferson be unproductive. Even with Dobbs, I have confidence he can be a high WR1. The elite numbers may not be there, but this is a team that still has playoff aspirations. They are going to force the ball to their best player.
I don’t quite have Jefferson as a WR1 in my rest-of-season rankings, but that’s not because I don’t think he will produce like one. Once he returns, he will be back inside the top eight. But right now, fantasy managers must make a decision based on the presumption that of the eight weeks remaining in the fantasy season, Jefferson is, at most, playing six of them.
Is the Trade Worth Making?
According to PFN’s Trade Analyzer, Adams is slightly ahead of Jefferson with a 1.5-point higher trade value. In my personal rest-of-season rankings, I have it flipped. But this must all be taken within the proper context.
If you need to win right now, it’s very difficult to center a deal around trading away a WR that is playing for one that is not. However, it really may just be one week. Since both players have their bye in front of them (both Week 13), that is not a meaningful data point in any analysis.
Ultimately, this one has to come down to how I feel about each of these players. I have far more confidence in a returning Jefferson to reach 90% of his pre-injury (or rather, pre-Cousins injury) production. I can’t say I have the same confidence in Adams producing with Aidan O’Connell.
With Jefferson’s return imminent, his perceived value is likely back to close to where it was when he was healthy, with an inherent Dobbs discount.
The difficulty in making any sort of trade for Jefferson involving Adams as the centerpiece is Adams’ fantasy value has cratered. The Jefferson manager is not going to view him as a locked-in WR1. As a result, you may have to overpay a bit if you want to land Jefferson.
If your team is 6-3 or better, this is definitely a move worth making. Even at 5-4 or 4-5, I would strongly consider doing it. Only if your team is 3-6 or worse would I pass because this week is likely a must-win. Even in a bad matchup, you have to just hope Adams can find a way to come through.
Overall, though, I would definitely approve of packaging Adams with another piece to acquire Jefferson.
Looking to make a trade in your fantasy league? Having trouble deciding who to start and who to sit? Setting DFS lineups? Check out PFN’s Free Fantasy Football Trade Analyzer, Start/Sit Optimizer, and DFS Lineup Optimizer to help you make the right decision!