If you’re still reading this weekly article, then allow me to be the first to congratulate you on advancing to the second half of the 2023 season in your survivor league! Now, it’s time to really dig in and formulate our survivor-league strategy for the final nine weeks of NFL action, starting with Week 10.
NFL Survivor Picks Strategy for Week 10
Survivor-league players faced their biggest challenge yet last week with multiple Super Bowl contenders facing one another in Week 9, which pushed many to select teams like the Cleveland Browns or New Orleans Saints to survive another game.
Well, the task gets even tougher this week with four teams on bye in Week 10 — the Kansas City Chiefs, Philadelphia Eagles, Miami Dolphins, and Los Angeles Rams are unavailable to select.
While survivor-league players have managed to get to this point by simply picking a double-digit favorite every week, those options are unlikely to be available as we enter the back half of the 2023 NFL season.
The Browns, 49ers, Ravens, Bills, Chiefs, Dolphins, Rams, Seahawks, and Chargers have been the most popular picks through the first nine weeks of the season.
As mentioned in previous entries, I don’t have any concrete rules when selecting games, but I do have some general guidelines to follow:
- Avoid divisional games
- Avoid picking road teams
- Avoid games with bad weather in the forecast
As we progress deeper into the season, things like bad weather could start playing a much bigger role in which direction we would like to go for our weekly selection.
As previously mentioned, some of the biggest favorites over the last nine weeks have been the Ravens, Bills, Chiefs, 49ers, Dolphins, Rams, Seahawks, Chargers, and Browns. This means we can’t turn to the likes of Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Tua Tagovailoa, Matthew Stafford, Justin Herbert, Deshaun Watson, or a stacked 49ers roster when we get into a pinch later in the season.
MORE: Early NFL Week 10 Predictions and Picks Against the Spread
Since these were the most selected teams each week by survivor-league players, according to survivorgrid.com data, I will be excluding them from my selection process in the strategy section of this weekly article moving forward in an attempt to best simulate your survivor scenario situation each week.
If you have any additional survivor questions specific to your league, don’t hesitate to follow me on Twitter @DerekTateNFL to send me a message or join our Discord channel, so we can talk on that platform.
Teams No Longer Available To Select
Week 1: Baltimore Ravens (Selected by 32% of survivor-league teams)
Week 2: Buffalo Bills (Selected by 26% of teams)
Week 3: Kansas City Chiefs (Selected by 21% of teams)
Week 4: San Francisco 49ers (Selected by 31% of teams)
Week 5: Miami Dolphins (Selected by 39% of teams)
Week 6: Los Angeles Rams (Selected by 17% of teams)
Week 7: Seattle Seahawks (Selected by 55% of teams)
Week 8: Los Angeles Chargers (Selected by 35% of teams)
Week 9: Cleveland Browns (Selected by 54% of teams)
This is where identifying teams who aren’t necessarily the biggest favorite of the week can strongly benefit you as we move into the holiday season.
The fact that some of the biggest Super Bowl contenders in the league are unavailable for the rest of the season will start presenting some very big challenges once we get to the back half of the 2023 campaign.
For now, though, we still have the Eagles, Jaguars, Cowboys, Bengals, and Lions available, who have plenty of future value to rely on in the next month of NFL action.
Strategy 1
Week 10: Cincinnati Bengals ( vs. HOU)
Week 11: Dallas Cowboys (@ CAR)
Week 12: Tennessee Titans (vs. CAR)
Week 13: Pittsburgh Steelers (vs. ARI)
Top teams still available: PHI, JAX, DET
Strategy 2
Week 10: Dallas Cowboys (vs. NYG)
Week 11: Detroit Lions (vs. CHI)
Week 12: Tennessee Titans (vs. CAR)
Week 13: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs. CAR)
Top teams still available: PHI, JAX, CIN, DAL
It’s always important to keep updating your strategy once we get new information. For example, if you like to simply trail a bad team to play against every week, I suggest pivoting to the Panthers, Giants, Patriots, and Cardinals.
Chalk Picks
Through the first nine weeks of the NFL season, I’ve gone 15-3 with my chalk selections but took a loss last week with the Vikings’ upset over the Atlanta Falcons.
Here’s a look at some of the chalkiest picks for Week 10, according to Numberfire.com.
Let’s take a look at my favorite chalk selections heading into Week 10.
Dallas Cowboys (vs. NYG)
The Cowboys’ passing offense has come to life in recent weeks, with QB Dak Prescott throwing for 678 yards and seven TDs over the last two games. Consequently, WR CeeDee Lamb has gone for 100 receiving yards in three straight games while catching 30 passes for 466 yards on 37 targets.
Those types of numbers are likely a sore subject for Giants fans, who have watched the team’s passing game struggle all year and just lost starting QB Daniel Jones for the season.
If backup signal-caller Tommy DeVito is going to get the start under center for New York against a formidable Cowboys defense, then expect Dallas to make this a rough starting NFL debut for the rookie.
Buffalo Bills (vs. DEN)
The Bills are in real danger of losing the AFC East crown if they don’t start stringing together some wins in the very near future. Buffalo has lost some head-scratchers this season and has barely escaped other potential collapses with large leads on a couple of occasions.
This week, they face a Broncos team who managed to upset the defending Super Bowl champs prior to heading into their bye.
MORE: NFL Awards Leaders — Betting Favorites at the Halfway Point of the Season
Has Denver really turned the corner? Possibly.
However, they’re still on the outside looking in at the AFC playoff picture, with the Bills in desperate need of a win to keep pace with the idle Dolphins in Week 10. Expect Buffalo to bounce back in a big way at home against the lowly Broncos.
Contrarian Pick
Cincinnati Bengals (vs. HOU)
It may seem a bit risky to select a team that is about to face a quarterback who just threw for 470 yards and five scores last week, but the Bengals’ defense has certainly been up to the challenge over the last two games against the 49ers’ and Bills’ high-powered offenses.
Texans QB C.J. Stroud is having a phenomenal rookie season, but he’s just two weeks removed from losing to the last winless team in the NFL. In that contest, Stroud threw for just 140 yards with no scores.
Cincinnati’s defense allowed a combined 35 points over the last two games by forcing quarterbacks Josh Allen and Brock Purdy to turn the ball over a combined four times in those two contests.
On the flip side, QB Joe Burrow and the Bengals’ offense are moving in the right direction since returning from their bye week, scoring 55 points in the last two weeks.
With Cincinnati technically sitting at the bottom of the AFC North division, expect them to handle their business at home and stay in the thick of the playoff picture with a win against Houston.
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