We all remember the insane one-handed catch that Odell Beckham Jr. made vs. the Dallas Cowboys when he was a member of the New York Giants. We also remember Beckham finally getting to the Super Bowl with the Rams and then tearing his ACL. However, does this current version of ODB that plays for the Baltimore Ravens warrant a waiver wire pickup in fantasy football?
Should Odell Beckham Jr. Be a Fantasy Waiver Wire Add in Week 10?
Let me be completely transparent. I love Beckham as a football player.
But things change. That one-handed catch occurred in a world where the Giants were relevant, and Beckham had full usage of both knees and was in his early 20s.
The fantasy community tends to lean towards recency bias and extrapolate any good performance to predict future outcomes. This is why when Beckham recorded five catches for 56 yards and a touchdown this past week against the Seahawks, we have to consider at least the possibility that it may provide helpful information for future things.
Additionally, Beckham had a similar five-catch, 49-yard performance two weeks ago. Unfortunately, he goosed us in the week following with a healthy zero-catch game.
This roller-coaster ride has resulted in an average of 3.3 catches for 35 yards and 0.33 touchdowns over the last three weeks and a 21% target share. Beckham has the talent and veteran guile to pull down a catch in almost any scenario, but he hasn’t been called on to do so regularly this season.
Beckham has seen an uptick in his usage, as his year-long target share is only 12.9%. But is that a trend or simply variance?
I think it’s matchup-dependent. Beckham is a wide receiver who is the third read for a run-first offense that we didn’t even rank in our top 40 at the position last week.
MORE: PFN Consensus Rankings
All the buzz in the preseason about the Ravens unleashing a high-powered Todd Monken lead passing attack has not come to fruition. Back-to-back first-round wide receivers in Rashod Bateman and Zay Flowers seemed to confirm the change, as well as the addition of the former best receiver on the planet in Beckham.
Even with all that buzz, the Ravens are currently the 20th-ranked passing attack and even found a new toy in Keaton Mitchell this week for the running game. None of this bodes well for Beckham’s prospects.
Beckham and the entire Ravens passing game have a tall task this week when they face the No. 4 ranked fantasy defense against wide receivers — the Cleveland Browns. Brighter skies are on the forecast for the fantasy playoffs, though, with three teams in the bottom half of the rankings against fantasy wide receivers: Jaguars (23), 49ers (27), and Dolphins (19).
I would never say you don’t pick up a talented player, but I only recommend ODB as a stash pickup that you would only play when other options are injured or on a bye. The upside is always there, but there’s a reason he wasn’t drafted highly this preseason, and that is risk.
I personally would rather grab the handcuff to my starting RB or a rookie WR buried on the depth chart at this time of the fantasy season.
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