We are now at eight weeks and counting since Aaron Jones has been fully healthy. The Green Bay Packers’ supposed RB1 looked great in Week 1 but hasn’t been able to shake a lingering hamstring strain. Can fantasy football managers trust Jones this week, or should they expect another week of heavy AJ Dillon usage?
Should You Start Aaron Jones or AJ Dillon This Week?
To jump-start the discussion, let’s see what the PFN Start/Sit Optimizer has to say. PFN Consensus Rankings currently have Jones as the clear start. He’s projected for 11.4 fantasy points, which includes 43.7 rushing yards, 3.0 receptions for 20.2 yards, and 0.3 touchdowns.
Jones’ projection is firmly ahead of Dillon’s 8.1 points.
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Every week in which Jones has been active this season, he’s been projected ahead of Dillon. Other than Week 1 (and the outright disaster for both of them that was Week 4), Dillon has been the more productive back each week.
In Week 7, the touch distribution wasn’t close, with Dillon out-touching Jones 17-11. In Week 8, Jones worked an even split, with both garnering 11 touches.
While Dillon has looked better as of late, there’s no denying Jones remains the more talented back when healthy. The question, of course, has been Jones’ health. Is this the week the Packers finally unleash Jones?
Aaron Jones’ Fantasy Outlook This Week
The Packers have been surprisingly candid about Jones’ health in the recent weeks. Although the back returned in Week 7, the team was very open about the fact that he wasn’t 100 percent.
Last week, the team once again was open about Jones’ health. The reports were he was improving but still not back to 100 percent.
The results indicated the Packers were telling the truth. Jones played 36% of the snaps in Week 7 and 51% of the snaps in Week 8. The latter was tied with Dillon.
This week, the tone out of Packers camp has been much better. Although Jones was wearing the red no-contact jersey at practice, head coach Matt LaFleur said that was purely precautionary. They don’t want to take any chances with how well Jones is progressing.
Despite Jones still not getting in a single full practice this season, he’s not listed on the final injury report. According to Rob Demovsky, LaFleur said the Packers are “ready to cut him loose.” Given the transparency we’ve received all season from the Packers, I believe them.
The bad news is the Rams aren’t particularly generous to opposing running backs. They allow the fifth-fewest fantasy points per game to the position. Most notably, they are excellent at defending running backs in the passing game. Just 7.1% of their total receiving yards allowed have gone to running backs. That is the fewest in the league.
MORE: Week 9 Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet
Jones makes most of his hay as a receiver. That is how the team wants to use him. They may struggle to do so against the Rams, lowering Jones’ upside.
Nevertheless, we should see Jones push 60% snap share this week. I am taking the Packers at their word and starting Jones over Dillon this week.
AJ Dillon’s Fantasy Outlook This Week
Since I’ve already revealed where my head is at regarding this backfield, there’s not much in the way of suspense. I am choosing to place my trust in the Packers and starting Jones over Dillon. Prior to LaFleur’s comments about cutting Jones loose, I had it reversed.
Dillon has coming off three straight weeks of double-digit fantasy points. It’s a marked improvement over his early season struggles.
With that said, Dillon didn’t exactly run well last week, carrying the ball six times for 11 yards. He got by on a season-high five receptions.
Interestingly, Dillon has been more involved as a pass catcher than Jones. Dillon is a quality pass-blocker, so it makes some sense in that regard. However, my sense is that it’s had more to do with Jones’ health than anything else. Look for Dillon’s receiving role to decline this week in favor of Jones.
The Rams are allowing just 0.5 rushing touchdowns per game. Dillon’s fantasy value this week likely hinges on his ability to score. Forgive me for being less than confident in a Jordan Love offense. As a result, I’m keeping Dillon out of Week 9 lineups.
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