It almost seems too good to be true — an actually good prime-time matchup featuring two elite quarterbacks — but it is actually happening tonight. The Buffalo Bills are looking for revenge after their playoff loss last season, but the Cincinnati Bengals are on fire right now.
Will Joe Burrow and the Bengals carry over their momentum from last week, or will Josh Allen and the Bills be too much to handle? Let’s find out the top plays from the PFN betting team in our Bills vs. Bengals predictions.
Buffalo Bills vs. Cincinnati Bengals Betting Lines
There hasn’t been much movement in the Bills vs. Bengals odds this week, with the most significant being on the total moving up a couple of points from 47.5. This is despite prime-time unders being 20-7 for the season.
All odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook unless stated otherwise.
- Spread
Bengals -2 - Moneyline
Bills +110, Bengals -130 - Over/Under
49.5
Buffalo Bills vs. Cincinnati Bengals Predictions
Blewis: Last week was sort of a coming-out party for Dalton Kincaid, who had five catches for 65 yards and a touchdown. For the season, Kincaid’s aDOT is very low at just 4.0, but more than half of his catches last week went for at least 15 yards, including two of more than 16.5.
With Dawson Knox injured, Kincaid played 84% of the snaps last week after playing an average of 60% per game prior to Week 8. With Kincaid’s increased playing time, combined with his proven ability to make big plays beyond what his aDOT might indicate, I think he should easily be able to go over 38.5 receiving yards.
Pick: Dalton Kincaid over 38.5 receiving yards (-140 at DraftKings)
Soppe: We might have our last chance to buy Gabe Davis in the yardage markets at a reasonable price. Davis has been a fantasy football darling for years thanks to his upside and route participation rates in an explosive offense and that is still a part of the analysis in a matchup against the defense with the highest opponent aDOT.
Those targets, however, can be sporadic. In this matchup, I like him to land a big punch or two, and that’s great — it’s just tough to bet.
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Last week, however, we saw some growth from the 24-year-old. His aDOT against the Bucs was 48.1% lower than his 2023 rate as a whole, and if that development is a sign of things to come, we are never going to get prop prices like what we have this week.
The Bengals put the clamps on Stefon Diggs in the playoff game last season (35 yards on 10 targets), and if they again focus on limiting him, the ceiling is indeed the roof for Davis!
Pick: Gabe Davis over 42.5 receiving yards (-115 at DraftKings), 60+ receiving yards (+185), and 80+ (+450)
Gallimore: The Bills were two end zone plays away from going 0-4 against the Jacksonville Jaguars, New York Giants, New England Patriots, and Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Meanwhile, the Bengals, who went 7-0 in November and December last season, are coming off a convincing win on the road against the San Francisco 49ers. Why are the Bengals only two-point favorites?
Throw out the first five weeks of the season. These are two teams headed in completely different directions. Give me a healthy, confident Joe Burrow and Bengals at home in prime time against a Bills team that can’t find answers even against bad opponents. Smash the Bengals.
Pick: Bengals -1.5 (-115 at DraftKings)
Katz: Last week, I took Tee Higgins over 45.5 receiving yards, and we hit easily. In my writeup, I said it would be the last time we got a number that low on Higgins. Well, color me shocked when I saw his line once again at under 50 yards on every sportsbook. Just like the Goofy meme, I’ll [censored] do it again.
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The logic remains the same. Higgins is good at football and every bit capable of being an alpha. The only reason he isn’t is because Ja’Marr Chase exists. Higgins went over this number in 10 of his 14 full games last season. He’s back healthy. Joe Burrow is healthy. This game should be high-scoring. Until they start putting Higgins’ line back to where it should be in at least the 60s, we’re taking his over.
Picks: Tee Higgins over 46.5 receiving yards (-117 at BetRivers), and since they limit me, I had to put the rest of my bet on over 48.5 receiving yards (-114 at FanDuel)
Broyles: Fading the Bills offense feels like a risky proposition, but Cincinnati is a tough matchup for Buffalo. The Bengals defense is coached as well as any in the NFL, and they know Stefon Diggs is Josh Allen’s lifeblood. The Bengals will do all they can to take the veteran receiver out of the game. Remember, the last time these two teams squared off, Diggs was on the sideline, yelling at the franchise QB. Expect similar frustrations in this one.
Pick: Stefon Diggs under 87.5 receiving yards (-115 at DraftKings)
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