Last week, fantasy football managers enjoyed all 32 teams in action. This week, bye weeks are back to wreak havoc on lineups. Two guys who might be on the fringe of starter consideration are DeAndre Hopkins and Rashee Rice. Should either — or perhaps both — WRs be in fantasy lineups this week?
Should You Start DeAndre Hopkins or Rashee Rice This Week?
To jump-start the discussion, let’s see what PFN’s Start/Sit Optimizer has to say. PFN Consensus Rankings currently have Rice as the start. He is projected for 11.2 fantasy points, 3.9 receptions, 52.4 yards, and 0.3 touchdowns. Rice’s projection narrowly edges out Hopkins’ 10.9 fantasy points.
I was a bit surprised to see the optimizer decide this in favor of Hopkins. I’ve been down on Hopkins all season, but in my individual rankings, I do have Hopkins slightly ahead of Rice.
This is close enough that you can go either way. And trust me, I am the last person to ever say to force a Thursday player into lineups. In fact, my mantra is when in doubt, fade Thursday. But I legitimately think Hopkins is the better start here. Let’s get into why.
DeAndre Hopkins’ Fantasy Outlook This Week
Hopkins is coming off one of the best fantasy outings of his entire career. It was certainly his best game since leaving the Texans.
Hopkins caught four passes for 128 yards and three touchdowns. It was only the second three-touchdown game of his career, with the last one coming in Week 5 of the 2017 season.
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There’s no denying Hopkins will benefit from Will Levis having a much better deep ball than Ryan Tannehill and just being an all-around better quarterback than Tannehill at this point in the latter’s career. But there are still some concerns.
Hopkins has surprisingly not been an every-down player. Well, perhaps it’s not that surprising, considering he’s 31 years old. He doesn’t need to be out there run blocking.
Even when on the field, though, Hopkins’ volume hasn’t been where it used to be. His 27.4% target share is elite, but he used to see those numbers on offenses that throw 100+ more time than the Titans. As a result, Hopkins has seen seven targets or fewer in five of his seven games this season.
With all that said, the Titans remain severely lacking in the pass catcher department. They don’t have a single competent NFL receiver outside of Hopkins. He remains the alpha.
Additionally, the Steelers have been generous to wide receivers this season. They are allowing the sixth-most fantasy points per game to the position. However, they have been more vulnerable against slot receivers than outside receivers. Since Hopkins spends 80% of his time on the outside, it could be more of a floor game for Hopkins.
Finally, it’s worth noting that Hopkins didn’t practice Wednesday and is questionable with a toe injury. Be sure to check his pregame status when inactives come out 90 minutes before kickoff, and get him out of your lineup if he’s inactive.
Rashee Rice’s Fantasy Outlook This Week
While I don’t love Hopkins this week, I am not yet ready to anoint Rice as an every-week starter. His role is increasing, but it’s still not where it needs to be.
Last week, Rice finally led all Chiefs wide receivers in snaps. But he still ran two fewer routes than Marquez Valdes-Scantling, who I can’t believe is still seeing meaningful playing time running wind sprints on the outside. He also ran just one more route than Skyy Moore, who I can’t believe is still on an NFL roster, let alone active on gamedays, let alone playing significant snaps.
Most notably, despite leading the Chiefs WRs in snaps and setting a season-high in snap share, it was still just 61%. That’s just life as a wide receiver on the Chiefs. They have arguably the worst WR room in the NFL. As a result, they just rotate guys in and out. There is no alpha here (other than TE Travis Kelce).
Rice has enjoyed a nice stretch of fantasy production relative to his cost (which was free). While he’s been a worthwhile waiver wire pickup and a useful spot starter, he’s not quite someone who needs to be in lineups.
Rice has scored at least 9.6 fantasy points in all but two games this season. He’s also benefited from some generous touchdown luck, catching three of them despite just 30 receptions.
Until we see a change in the way the Chiefs use their WRs, Rice remains just a floor play. While I believe Hopkins is also a floor play this week, he’s a much more established floor play and one with an objectively higher ceiling. Therefore, I would start Hopkins over Rice in Week 9 lineups.
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