This should be a fun one, and that gives us plenty of options when it comes to same game parlay picks! How am I using research from the first seven weeks to build out a Las Vegas Raiders vs. Detroit Lions on Monday Night Football betting card?
Las Vegas Raiders vs. Detroit Lions Odds
- Spread
Lions -7 - Moneyline
Raiders +280, Lions -355 - Total
47
We here at Soppe HQ like to encourage responsible gaming, and in that vein, I’ll always offer you a trivia question off the top of these articles. Pose this question to a buddy you are watching the game with: answer correctly, and you pay for the SGP; misfire, and he/she is on the hook.
Trivia Question: Jakobi Meyers has five touchdowns in six games with the Raiders. How many games did he play with the Patriots before scoring his fifth touchdown?
(A) 60 games (B) 55 games (C) 49 games (D) 41 games
I tend to start with the end of the game and work backward when making my same game parlay picks. I like this as a bounce-back spot for the Lions, something the spread certainly supports, and if that is the final page of this story, how do we get there?
On the Vegas side, all signs point to Jimmy Garoppolo being under center, and that means Jakobi Meyers is in a good spot. Garoppolo has been healthy enough to complete 15 passes in four games this season — Meyers has played in three of those games and has caught 23 passes on 32 targets.
We are getting a little bit of a discount on Meyers’ props due to the QB situation, but with him earning 13 targets last week in Chicago, I’m not sure a discount is warranted.
Playing from behind (Detroit is the third-highest first-quarter scoring team this season) works in the favor of Meyers, and so does the fact that, through seven weeks, opponents facing the Lions own the highest pass rate over expectation in the league.
MORE: NFL Week 8 Predictions, Picks Against the Spread
That puts Josh Jacobs (2.9 yards per carry this season, under 66 rushing yards in all four of Vegas’ losses this season) in a tough spot.
His role as the featured back isn’t in question, but with defenses willing to crowd the line of scrimmage (Jacobs: league-high 7.2 defenders in the box on average) and the projected script of this game, his rushing floor is as low as it gets from a player with this level of volume.
Dan Campbell told us we were getting a full dose of Jahmyr Gibbs last week, and … we did! In a game they lost by 32, Gibbs touched the ball 20 times and averaged 6.2 yards per carry.
He’s an explosive runner in the exact opposite spot that Jacobs is — a heavy favorite that runs into a stacked box just 2% of the time behind a line that we have ranked as the second-best offensive line moving forward.
We think we know how this game ends, and if we are right, I feel good about projecting our path to that result!
Trivia Answer: B) Meyers did not catch a TD pass in any of his first 38 games and reached five scores in his 56th career game.
Same Game Parlay Pick: Jakobi Meyers over 4.5 catches, Josh Jacobs under 65.5 rushing yards, Jahmyr Gibbs over 64.5 rushing yards
Odds: +485 (at DraftKings)