I don’t want to speculate that we are seeing the end of King Derrick Henry as we know him, but the data doesn’t lie. Some yardage after contact numbers can be skewed by line play, but Henry’s career fits into the bell curve you’d expect at the running back position. Here is his percentage of rushing yards gained after contact by season:
- 2023: 46.1%
- 2022: 52.2%, 2021: 52.0%, 2020: 53.4%
- 2019: 62.9%, 2018: 61.9%
- 2017: 51.9%, 2016: 50.8%
Notice how I grouped them. We have an early career Henry getting his feet wet, then a peak, and then a gradual decline that has become less gradual through seven weeks this season.
All is not lost, however. He is still a top-10 player at evading tackles, and we have seen a trademark chunk gain out of him in four of six games this season. A trade would impact his fantasy football value, so let’s take a look at some of the potential landing spots.
Potential Landing Spots for Derrick Henry
Cleveland Browns, Impact on Jerome Ford
With Nick Chubb out for the year and Jerome Ford battling an ankle injury, the Cleveland Browns are at a bit of an inflection point in their season. On one hand, they have issues under center with Deshaun Watson’s health/performance, but on the other, they have a playoff-ready defense that can cover up a lot of flaws.
The Browns are in a dogfight in the AFC North, a division that could send three teams to the postseason. Could they view themselves as an offensive stabilizer away from making some serious noise this winter?
MORE: 2023 RB Fantasy Football Rankings
Should that occur, we are looking at Henry returning close to peak Henry value. We currently have the Browns graded third in terms of best offensive lines, and there is reasonably little standing in Henry’s way of a bell-cow role.
Jerome Ford (ankle) is banged up right now, but even when healthy, if you remove two outlier runs, he is picking up just 2.7 yards per carry this season. Kareem Hunt was brought in during the season to fill a role, though it’s hard to imagine the team investing in Henry and then opting to give Hunt regular work.
Add in the fact that the Browns have Chubb waiting in the wings for their future at the position and we could be looking at an ultra fantasy-friendly role that lands Henry in my top five at the position for the rest of the way.
Baltimore Ravens, Impact on Lamar Jackson
Gus Edwards has seemingly distanced himself from Justice Hill as the lead back in Baltimore these days, but as another AFC North team with deep playoff run aspirations, the Ravens would slide Henry into their lead role without thinking twice.
Lamar Jackson is beginning to excel in Todd Monken’s quick-strike offense and a pounder like Henry should only help that. The respect that defenses would have to give the Ravens ground game would not only open up the perimeter for Jackson himself but would also result in a crowded line of scrimmage.
MORE: PPR Rankings
On the surface, that may feel like a bad thing, but the Ravens have some downfield threats that can win in a big way in single coverage situations. Jackson would lose some scoring equity with his legs (five rushing TDs this season), but I believe he’d more than make up for that in both an increase in quality of carry and potentially a spike in aDOT.
Henry would rank just outside my top five in this scenario but as an RB1 and an upgrade over his current situation.
Buffalo Bills, Impact on Josh Allen
This is the most interesting of the options being mentioned. The Buffalo Bills have been a pass-heavy offense throughout Josh Allen’s development, and this season they’ve dialed back the risk-taking a bit.
He still makes some chaotic plays, but the aDOT is down and so are the rushing attempts, all to keep him upright come January. That’s a good plan for the Bills franchise, but it does create a floor fantasy managers have yet to worry about for Allen.
In terms of projections, the unsustainability of Allen’s scoring on the ground has him just outside my top tier at the QB position. That is where we stand right now, without Henry. Should Henry take his talents to Upstate NY, Allen would fall to the second tier of fantasy signal-caller for me, behind the likes of Justin Herbert and the aforementioned Jackson.
As for Henry, this is a great offense to join, though his path to his traditional role isn’t clear. James Cook (career: 5.2 yards per carry) has impressed during his 24 games with the team and would likely remain more involved than any of the options mentioned above.
That said, Cook would likely spell Henry on occasion in the ground game and serve as more of a third-down piece. In this scenario, Henry’s touchdown equity levels up, but his overall yardage projection would dip compared to the other options.
I believe the Bills would give Henry the goal line work, which would elevate him to a top-five option and result in that drop I hinted at with Allen.
Potential Rest-Of-Season RB Rankings
- Christian McCaffrey
- Austin Ekeler
- Travis Etienne Jr.
- Derrick Henry, Cleveland Browns
- Tony Pollard
- Derrick Henry, Buffalo Bills
- Isiah Pacheco
- Derrick Henry, Baltimore Ravens
In any of these instances, Tyjae Spears would see his value this season spike. While the Titans’ offense would still offer limited scoring potential, the fact that the rookie has posted four top 35 weeks this season while behind Henry speaks to his potential if handed the keys to the car.
Defenses have yet to treat him like the threat that Henry is (19.4% stacked box rate compared to Henry’s 31.6%), so there will be an adjustment period. That said, the schedule down the stretch is favorable and could land Spears in the RB2 mix when it matters most.
- Week 12: vs. CAR
- Week 13: vs. IND
- Week 14: at MIA
- Week 15: vs. HOU
- Week 16: vs. SEA
- Week 17: at HOU
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