When looking at the NFL odds this week, a couple of things stand out. First, every total is below 48 points, which makes sense considering unders are 65-41-1 so far this season. Second, there are nine home underdogs this week — more than half of the games.
With all of this in mind, how should this week’s NFL betting lines impact how you should make your picks? Let’s dive into the NFL Week 8 predictions, picks against the spread, player props, and more from the PFN betting team.
NFL Week 8 Predictions and Picks
All odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook as of 9:30 am EST. Click here to place your bets!
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Washington Commanders Prediction
- Spread
Eagles -7 - Moneyline
Eagles -325, Commanders +260 - Total
43.5
Blewis: The last time these two teams played, they blew through the total by 22 points. But since then, however, the Eagles’ defense has gotten much better. Through the first four weeks of the season, they were 18th in EPA/play, but over the last three weeks, which included games against the Rams and Dolphins, they have been the ninth-best defense by EPA/play.
It might be a small sample size, but this is a talented defense adjusting to a new defensive coordinator in Sean Desai earlier this season. Since then, they’ve much improved, and they should be at near full strength for this one.
After Sam Howell had a very efficient game last time these two teams played, I’m expecting a better game plan defensively out of the Eagles. Unders in Eagles road games this season are also 3-1, with the one exception being the season opener that went over the total by a point.
Pick: Under 43.5 (-110 at DraftKings)
Katz: When the Eagles and Commanders last played, Brian Robinson did go over this number. But he got there on pure volume. It took him 14 carries to get to 45 yards. If Robinson gets another 14 touches, he can probably get there again. Recent trends suggest he won’t.
Over his last three games, Robinson has averaged a sub-50% snap share. After averaging 15.25 carries per game over the first month of the season, Robinson has averaged just 8.0 carries per game over his last three.
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The Commanders have been giving a handful of carries each game to Chris Rodriguez. If that continues, and I imagine it will, that will be enough to prevent Robinson from doing much on the ground against an Eagles defense that allows the second-fewest yards per carry (3.3) to running backs.
Pick: Brian Robinson under 38.5 rushing yards (-115 at Caesars)
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Prediction
- Spread
Jaguars -2 - Moneyline
Jaguars -125, Steelers +105 - Total
41
Bearman: My instinct is to take the under, as five of the six Steelers games have failed to reach the 41.5 mark. The only one that did (a 26-22 win over the Browns) was due to two defensive touchdowns. My only issue is the Jags’ offense has been on fire since heading across the pond, scoring 23, 25, 37, and 31, respectively, since the London trip started.
Instead, I’m going to isolate the Steelers’ offense, which has been barely above awful this season, ranking 31st in total yards and time of possession (TOP), 28th in rushing, 25th in passing, and 26th in points. The number is 20.5, which Pittsburgh’s offense has reached only twice this season, including last week when they needed two fourth-quarter TDs to get there.
Pick: Steelers team total under 20.5 (-115 at DraftKings)
Blewis: The Jaguars quietly have been one of the better teams in the first half this season, with a 6-1 ATS record. The one loss was against the Texans in Week 3, which seemed like a flukey game for them.
The Steelers, on the other hand, have been one of the worst first-half teams this season, averaging just 7 points per game, and are just 2-4 ATS. In their last three games even, they have been outscored 35-6 in the first half.
The talent gap between these teams is more than their records may indicate, as Jacksonville is 8th in DVOA and Pittsburgh is 17th, but the Steelers keep finding ways to win late in games, which has me scared of taking the Jags to cover. However, their luck has to run out eventually — right?
Pick: Jaguars -0.5 1st half (-108 at DraftKings)
Katz: Last week, I was on Travis Etienne’s rushing yards under. That hit. Now, we go the other way against a Steelers defense that allows 118 rushing yards per game to running backs, the fourth-most in the league, and 4.7 YPC (fifth-best).
Etienne has a true bellcow role. He only comes off the field when he’s tired. Last week, he played 88% of the snaps. While he only handled 14 carries, he still got to 53 yards against an elite run defense.
Against a much weaker run defense, Etienne should have no trouble reaching 62 yards, even if he once again only sees 14 carries. If he gets 20+, this should hit easily.
Pick: Travis Etienne over 61.5 rushing yards (-110 at DraftKings)
New Orleans Saints vs. Indianapolis Colts Prediction
- Spread
Saints -2 - Moneyline
Saints -130, Colts -110 - Total
43.5
Bearman: I got burned in taking unders in games involving these teams last week as the Saints got into a shootout on Thursday night with the red-hot Jags, and the Colts went back and forth vs. the Browns.
It was an abnormality for the Saints, the first game all season to go over the total. And I don’t expect the Colts to put up what they did last week. This number would’ve been in the high 30s if not for last week’s fireworks.
Pick: Under 43.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
Houston Texans vs. Carolina Panthers Prediction
- Spread
Texans -3.5 - Moneyline
Texans -175, Panthers +145 - Total
43.5
Broyles: Like many others, I have been impressed with what I have seen from the Houston Texans passing game, namely rookie signal-caller C.J. Stroud.
Although the best way to attack the Panthers’ defense is on the ground, the Texans have struggled to run the ball all season. The offensive line injuries have kept Houston from getting second-year back Dameon Pierce going.
Expect the Texans to have plenty of scoring chances against a Panthers team that remains winless and struggles greatly. Take the Over on Stroud’s TD tosses this week.
Pick: C.J. Stroud over 1.5 passing touchdowns (+110 at DraftKings)
Los Angeles Rams vs. Dallas Cowboys Prediction
- Spread
Cowboys -6.5 - Moneyline
Rams +240, Cowboys -298 - Total
45.5
Broyles: The Cowboys offense was scuffling a bit heading into their bye week. Prescott has performed outside of hiccups against Arizona and San Francisco.
The Cowboys were determined to establish the run in 2023, but the ground game isn’t as reliable as in seasons gone by. The Cowboy’s offensive line is good, but it is not the dominant unit it once was.
The Cowboys have enough weapons to find holes in the Ram’s defense. Expect the Cowboys’ passing game to be firing on all cylinders off their bye week. It’s safe to take the over on most passing numbers for Prescott.
Meanwhile, the line for Matthew Stafford’s passing touchdowns has moved quite a bit. Originally posted at -120, the line has moved significantly to +135.
Don’t expect the Rams to be able to run the ball with consistency against a dominant Cowboys front seven. If the Cowboys are pushing the action, which I expect, the only way for the Rams to keep pace is through their passing game.
Cooper Kupp had one of his worst games in quite some time last week. The Cowboy’s secondary is not as daunting with Diggs on season-ending IR, so expect the Rams to attack the Dallas defensive backs.
Dallas may eventually pull away, but Stafford will keep the Rams in the game long enough for the Rams QB to hit the over on this prop.
Picks: Dak Prescott over 1.5 passing touchdowns (-120 at DraftKings), Dak Prescott over 242.5 passing yards (-115 at DraftKings), Matthew Stafford over 1.5 passing touchdowns (+135 at DraftKings)
Atlanta Falcons vs. Tennessee Titans Prediction
- Spread
Falcons -2.5 - Moneyline
Falcons -135, Titans +114 - Total
35
Bearman: Six, seven, 21, 16, 16; Those are the totals the Falcons have scored in the last five weeks. Some of those were wins, but you get the point.
Arthur Smith gets his first matchup vs. his old team, but that won’t get the offense going. Only three teams have scored less, and you don’t want to be on a list with the Giants, Patriots, and Raiders.
The Titans aren’t much better, but 35.5 as a total is low. Back to isolating team totals, Tennessee is under 17, but Atlanta is 19.5. So we will go under the Falcons.
Pick: Falcons team total under 19.5 (-115 at DraftKings)
Soppe: I like diving into advanced metrics and overthinking stats as much as anyone, but sometimes calculus isn’t needed.
London has seen at least seven targets in each of his past four games, and, for his career, he averages 7.5 yards per target. We can all agree that his talent has yet to be fully unleashed in Atlanta, and yet, that per target production is enough to get us home this week.
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But wait, there’s more. None of those numbers account for the matchup — the Titans allow the fifth-most yards per pass this season (7.4) — their weakness.
Do we think the books have this right, and Atlanta wins? If so, an efficient Desmond Ridder is possible.
- CMP% in wins this season: 72.3%
- CMP% in losses this season: 58.6%
Pick: Drake London over 49.5 receiving yards (-115 at BetMGM)
New York Jets vs. New York Giants Prediction
- Spread
Jets -3 - Moneyline
Jets -166, Giants +140 - Total
35
Bearman: Not many people outside of the New York/New Jersey area have interest in the once every four years battle of MetLife Stadium, where both teams play. We should congratulate the Giants for their first first-half TD of the season last week … not only one, but two TDs in the second quarter, raising their season average of points per game to 12.1.
But that’s it, just 14 points. Now they face a Jets defense that held Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, and Jalen Hurts all in check. The Giants’ team total north of that key number of 17. They’ve gotten there once … all in the second half vs. the horrible Cardinals.
Pick: Giants team total under 17.5 (-124 at FanDuel)
New England Patriots vs. Miami Dolphins Prediction
- Spread
Dolphins -8 - Moneyline
Patriots +310, Dolphins -395 - Total
46.5
Blewis: In the three matchups between Bill Belichick and Mike McDaniel dating back to last season, the highest combined point total has been 44 points, and seven came from an interception returned for a touchdown. The point is that Belichick has more familiarity with this offense than the bad teams Miami put up historical numbers against earlier this season.
Injuries on the offensive side of the ball are also concerning for the Dolphins. Although they’re each expected to play, Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, and Raheem Mostert have been dealing with injuries this week, and they could also be missing as many as three starting offensive linemen.
This might be buying too high on the Patriots coming off a big win last week, but I think that is something for them to build off of. New England is healthier on the offensive line now, and they’ve had enough time now to figure out life defensively without Matthew Judon and Christian Gonzalez. I don’t think they’ll win, but I think they can keep it under 10 points.
I got the Patriots at +9.5, but the line has dropped since. If you can get them at above eight points anywhere still I would recommend taking it.
Pick: Patriots +9.5 (-110 at FanDuel) before the line movement
Minnesota Vikings vs. Green Bay Packers Prediction
- Spread
Vikings -1 - Moneyline
Vikings -118, Packers -102 - Total
41.5
Blewis: My favorite teaser legs are when I have an opportunity to buy up a home underdog going against a division rival to a key number, and that’s what I have here with Green Bay.
The Packers were favored in this one, but the spread flipped after the Vikings’ impressive Monday Night Football win and the Packers’ loss to the Broncos. This has the makings of a buy low/sell high spot, but I lack the guts to take the Packers without the additional six points.
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The last time the Vikings beat a team by eight points or more was Week 18 of last season against a tanking Bears team.
Now, which teaser leg do I want to pair with the Packers +7.5? Why not get the Chargers down to two-point favorites on Sunday Night Football against the Bears?
Pick: Packers +7.5 and Chargers -2.5 in a 6-point tease (-120 at DraftKings)
Broyles: The Vikings head into this contest against their NFC North division rivals, the Green Bay Packers, flying high off a Monday Night Football upset of the daunting San Francisco 49ers.
The Vikings offense is playing well, even without All-Pro receiver Justin Jefferson. Jefferson remains on the IR, so expect Minnesota to work with their other playmakers.
The way to beat the Packers is to run the ball on them. The Packers have been one of the worst run defenses in the league for several seasons, and the issue hasn’t improved in 2023.
I haven’t been the biggest fan of Vikings’ back Alexander Mattison, but I believe he’ll be heavily involved this week and will eclipse 45.5 rushing yards with relative ease. Take the over.
Pick: Alexander Mattison over 45.5 rushing yards (-115 at DraftKings)
Cleveland Browns vs. Seattle Seahawks Prediction
- Spread
Seahawks -3.5 - Moneyline
Browns +150, Seahawks -180 - Total
37.5
Katz: This seems like a high line for a guy with a season-high of 47 rushing yards. I know. Jerome Ford is out. Kareem Hunt is now the lead back. But is he?
Last week, Pierre Strong handled eight carries against Hunt’s 10. We are not going to get 2018 Hunt here. We’re not even going to get 2020 Hunt. This is going to be a timeshare. Hunt is probably capped at 12-14 carries. That’s not going to be enough against the No. 1 run defense in the NFL, allowing a league-low 2.9 YPC to running backs. I was very tempted to make this a two-unit play.
Pick: Kareem Hunt under 46.5 rushing yards (-115 at DraftKings)
Cincinnati Bengals vs. San Francisco 49ers Prediction
- Spread
49ers -5.5 - Moneyline
Bengals +180, 49ers -218 - Total
43.5
Katz: Based on Tee Higgins’ 2023 performance, this looks like an awful bet. He’s gone over this number just once in five games. But let’s break that down a bit.
In Week 1, Higgins went catchless. I will chalk that up to a fluke. In Week 2, Higgins smashed with an 8-89-2 line. In Week 3, Higgins just disappeared, catching two passes for 21 yards. In Week 4, Higgins hurt his ribs. He didn’t play Week 5 before returning to Week 6 at less than 100 percent.
Heading into Week 8, the Bengals are coming off their bye. Higgins has recovered from his rib injury, and Joe Burrow is the healthiest he’s ever been.
Last season, Higgins went over 45 receiving yards in 10 of his 14 games played. I’m willing to gamble this will be the lowest we will see Higgins’ receiving yardage line for the rest of the season.
Pick: Tee Higgins over 45.5 receiving yards (-110 at BetMGM)
Baltimore Ravens vs. Arizona Cardinals Prediction
- Spread
Ravens -9.5 - Moneyline
Ravens -485, Cardinals +370 - Total
44.5
Bearman: This is a matchup of two teams headed in opposite directions. After teasing us all season, the Ravens have won three of the last four, most notably a blowout win over the Lions last week.
They carry the league’s best defense into a matchup with the fading Cardinals. After starting the season as a surprise upstart team and giving each opponent fits for a half (and beating the Cowboys), Arizona has not been very competitive the last two weeks in losses to the Rams and Seahawks.
With the Ravens on the road, 8.5 is too much to lay vs. a Cardinals squad that tends to hang around. We’ll play Baltimore in a two-team, six-point teaser with Detroit, who play on Monday night.
Pick: Ravens (-2.5) in a two-team, six-point teaser with Lions (-2.5) made earlier this week
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Denver Broncos Prediction
- Spread
Chiefs -7 - Moneyline
Chiefs -345, Broncos +275 - Total
46
Broyles: Betting against Patrick Mahomes feels like death by a thousand papercuts, but hear me out. Mahomes is great, and the Chiefs may be able to toy with the Bronco’s defense, but that is all the more reason to take the Under here.
Huh? The Chiefs have evolved into one of the more balanced offenses in the NFL, committing to a running game spearheaded by second-year back Isiah Pacheco.
The Broncos are horrendous against the run, so I expect the Chiefs offense to focus a great deal of attention on running the football and grinding the Broncos’ defense into dust.
Yes, the offense will still go through Mahomes but expect the Chiefs coaching staff to take it easy on the Super Bowl MVP this week. Take the Under on Mahomes passing yards.
Pick: Patrick Mahomes under 277.5 passing yards (-115 at DraftKings)
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