The Philadelphia Eagles‘ fantasy preview wonders about the value of DeVonta Smith, while the Washington Commanders‘ fantasy outlook revolves around their lead running back.
Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Commanders
- Spread: Eagles -6.5
- Total: 43.5
- Eagles implied points: 25
- Commanders implied points: 18.5
Quarterbacks
Jalen Hurts: Under “normal” circumstances, I’d be worried about Hurts having multiple touchdowns in just two of seven games, but with the “Brotherly Shove” emerging as the most unstoppable force in recent memory, Hurts’ floor is nothing short of elite.
He’s connecting with WR A.J. Brown at a historic rate, and that’s allowed the QB to rack up at least 275 passing yards in five straight after opening the season with consecutive games under 200 yards.
While it’s on my mind, hit me up @KyleSoppePFN with your most indefensible plays in sports. Here is my start to the list, alongside Philadelphia’s sneak:
- Prime Shaquille O’Neal in the paint
- Lionel Messi on set pieces
- Peak Barry Bonds (2001-04)
Sam Howell: For a man on pace to shatter the sack record, Howell’s fantasy production (five finishes inside the top 15) is remarkable. In theory, the Eagles’ pass defense can be had, but that’s operating under the assumption that Washington’s receivers have time to complete even the most simple of routes.
That’s just not an assumption I’m willing to make.
MORE: PFN Consensus Rankings
The Eagles rank sixth in pressure rate, despite checking in at 20th in blitz rate. That speaks to their ability to generate pressure with their front four, matching their strength with the Commanders’ most glaring weakness.
Good luck with that, Mr. Howell. If he can produce in this spot, he will be on my QB streamers piece for Week 9. I just don’t think it’s going to happen, so I have him ranked outside of my top 15 at the position.
Running Backs
D’Andre Swift: No point in getting cute here. On top of handling the vast majority of the groundwork, Swift out-snapped RB Kenneth Gainwell 50-22 last week and has at least three catches in four straight games.
The recent dip in efficiency (3.7 YPC over his past four games) has my attention when it comes to stacking up the top 12 running backs and ordering them, but it’s nothing that should make you second-guess playing him across the board.
If you are worried about that, take comfort in the fact that the Commanders are the 10th-worst yards-per-carry defense in the NFL.
Brian Robinson Jr.: Most days without a carry gaining more than six yards and zero receptions is a complete fantasy disaster. Robinson, of course, saved his Week 7 with a touchdown. That’s what he does.
Washington’s lead back (34-26 snap edge over Antonio Gibson) has scored in five of seven games this season, allowing us to overlook the fact that his 24 carries over the past three weeks have gained just 64 yards.
His fantasy production has been greater than his usage deems sustainable, and that’s a concern, but what are your alternatives? He carries significant risk in a matchup like this, but his scoring equity keeps him in the low-end RB2 conversation, making him a starter in most situations.
Antonio Gibson: There’s simply no reason to roster him. Gibson has one game this season with more than three carries and has been held to 10 or fewer receiving yards in the majority of contests.
MORE: Fantasy News Tracker
At this point, Gibson requires a trip to the end zone to be even remotely usable. It’s just not a great outlook for a player scoring once every 33 touches since the beginning of 2021.
Wide Receivers
A.J. Brown: The conversation about who the WR1 in Philly is long over. Brown has matched the NFL record for five consecutive games with at least 125 receiving yards. He also has a 35-plus-yard grab in four straight games and seems impossible to defend when opponents have to respect the versatile ground game.
He’s as good a mix of upside and volume as anyone in the league right now (it’s him and Miami Dolphins WR Tyreek Hill in the top tier of this list), and that’s with little help from his WR partner in crime. Just imagine if opposing defenses are worried about a confident DeVonta Smith.
DeVonta Smith: For the third straight game — and the fifth time in seven weeks — Smith was held under 50 yards. Things have been tough for the former Heisman Trophy winner after scoring in each of Philadelphia’s first two contests, but I think you need to wait this out and keep rolling him out there.
Smith ran a route on every single one of Hurts’ dropbacks last week, and this offense is built to put him in advantageous spots. With Brown on one side, TE Dallas Goedert demanding attention in the middle of the field, and RB Swift very much a threat in the horizontal passing game, Smith should have his fair share of field days.
And I think he will. Could the upcoming brutal schedule stretch of the Dallas Cowboys, the Kansas City Chiefs, the Buffalo Bills, the San Francisco 49ers, and the Cowboys again be what unlocks him, as defenses shift their assets around to limit Brown? I’m trusting the talent and playing time.
I’ll go down with the ship if it wasn’t meant to be. Smith is easily a top-20 receiver for me this week.
Terry McLaurin: With 20 targets over his past two games, it looks like McLaurin is finally getting the alpha volume that we spent the first five weeks begging for — you love to see it. He’s cleared 80 yards in three of his past four, proving worthy of the increase in usage.
The limited scoring equity is a concern that you’re going to have to live with — he’s had five straight games without a score and is trending toward his fourth consecutive season with no more than five TD receptions — but as long as the volume sustains, he’s a fantasy starter.
MORE: When Is the NFL Trade Deadline?
Everything I wrote in the Howell profile translates to McLaurin. Be aware of the floor. That said, his aDOT is down 14% from last season, giving him hope at providing top-30 value on quick hitters this week.
Curtis Samuel: You can move on. Samuel has been held under 55 receiving yards in six of seven games this season, and with just one rushing yard over his past five games, the downside of his current role far outpaces the upside. He’s outside of my top 45 at the position;], and I’d rather take my chances and enter the Detroit Lions WR Jameson Williams lottery on Monday night.
Jahan Dotson: Another Commander getting looks that’s not worth your time? You bet. On the bright side, Dotson ran a route on 85.7% of Howell dropbacks last week, which is level with McLaurin and well ahead of Samuel’s 53.1%. That’s a start, but nothing more.
He has, per the Week 8 Cheat Sheet, one top-45 finish this season and has seen his yards-per-catch fall from 14.9 last season to 8.3. It’s one thing to be a big-play threat that is hit-and-miss, but with the upside being removed from his profile due to the struggles of this offensive line, you can do better.
Tight Ends
Dallas Goedert: With at least five catches in five of his past six games, Goedert has re-established himself as a Tier 3 tight end that you can feel good about. Does his usage take a hit if/when Smith gets rolling? It’s possible, but by averaging 78.7 yards over his past three matches (first four games: 22.0), Goedert is as viable as any option outside of the Big Three at the position.
Logan Thomas: In four of six games this season, Thomas has been a top-13 performer at the position. It’s rarely exciting, but any semblance of production is noteworthy among tight ends this year.
I have him ranked as my TE15 this week, understanding that he carries a low floor but could be used in the short-passing game.
Should You Start Brian Robinson or Kareem Hunt?
I prefer Cleveland Browns RB Hunt with teammate Jerome Ford out, but I’m not overly confident in either. Hunt’s versatile skill set is encouraging, and so is Cleveland’s run-heavy scheme. In my opinion, he holds the greater per-touch ceiling to Robinson, and I think it’s very possible that he matches the Commanders’ starter in touches.
MORE: NFL Bye Weeks Schedule 2023
Hunt is my RB2,4 while Robinson checks in at RB27.
Should You Start DeVonta Smith or Zay Flowers?
I have both ranked as top-20 plays this weekend with Flowers holding a one-spot edge. Smith has taken a back seat (more like a trunk seat at this point) during AJ Brown’s historic run, and while I still believe the upside is there, we can’t ignore the floor.
Flowers, on the other hand, is the alpha receiver on an offense that carries a similar scoring upside. I have both ranked as weekly starters for the remainder of the season, but give me Flowers and his safer role over Smith this week.
Looking to make a trade in your fantasy league? Having trouble deciding who to start and who to sit? Setting DFS lineups? Check out PFN’s Free Fantasy Football Trade Analyzer, Start/Sit Optimizer, and DFS Lineup Optimizer to help you make the right decision!