This afternoon’s divisional matchup between the Los Angeles Chargers and Kansas City Chiefs features two very talented offenses that have both underachieved relative to expectations so far this season.
Although the Chiefs are averaging the fourth-most yards per game, it is down 31 yards per game from last season’s weekly average, and when you have Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, and Andy Reid, expectations are obviously going to be through the moon.
Meanwhile, the Chargers are coming off a 20-17 loss at home to the Cowboys, in which they recorded just 272 yards of offense — it might have been the worst performance from Justin Herbert in his short NFL career so far.
In a matchup featuring a bunch of talent on both sides of the ball, which Chargers vs. Chiefs player prop bets should you be targeting? Will Austin Ekeler have a bounce-back game after just 27 rushing yards last week? Let’s dive into our favorite player prop bets for this matchup.
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Top Los Angeles Chargers vs. Kansas City Chiefs Player Prop Bets To Target
Our team of betting experts gives out their favorite player prop bets for Chargers vs. Chiefs.
All odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook unless noted otherwise.
Justin Herbert Player Props
- Passing Yards: 266.5 (Over -105/Under -125)
- Pass Touchdowns: 1.5 (Over -130/Under +100)
- Pass Completions: 25.5 (Over -105/Under -125)
- Pass Attempts: 38.5 (Over +100/Under -130)
- Rushing Yards: 15.5 (Over -120/Under -110)
- Interceptions: 0.5 (Over +100/Under -130)
Blewis: Justin Herbert is coming off a terrible game in which he finished with a QBR of 56.9 and was missing his receivers all game. The inaccuracy was unusual to see from a quarterback of Herbert’s caliber, but unfortunately for him, he has a matchup against another top-five defense this season in the Kansas City Chiefs.
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If there’s one weakness of this Chiefs defense, it is that they don’t generate many takeaways, with just three interceptions in six games this season. Aside from the game-ending INT last week, Herbert has done a good job of protecting the football, having thrown just two picks. I also don’t expect him to be under much pressure today going against a Chiefs defense that is just 29th in pass rush win rate.
Pick: Justin Herbert under 0.5 interceptions (-130 at DraftKings)
Austin Ekeler Player Props
- Rushing Yards: 48.5 (Over -130/Under +100)
- Rush Attempts: 12.5 (Over -105/Under -125)
- Receiving Yards: 34.5 (Over -115/Under -115)
- Receptions: 4.5 (Over -120/Under -110)
- Anytime Touchdown Scorer: -140
- First Touchdown Scorer: +600
Blewis: In his first game back from injury last week, Ekeler was responsible for 87.5% of the Chargers’ rushing attempts from running backs. Now that he is one further week removed from injury, I’m expecting him to be even healthier for this one despite the short week.
The Chargers and Chiefs always play in very close games, as the last game to be decided by more than one score was in 2019, before Herbert was in the NFL. I don’t expect game script to be an issue here, so let’s go with Ekeler to go over his rush attempts line.
Pick: Austin Ekeler over 12.5 rush attempts (-105 at DraftKings)
Donald Parham Player Props
- Receiving Yards: 14.5 (Over -115/Under -115)
- Anytime Touchdown Scorer:
- First Touchdown Scorer:
Soppe: This should be a fun game that features plenty of overs, but I’m not against fighting for an ugly prop. We are nearing 700 days since the last time Donald Parham saw more than three targets in a game, and while his yardage prop is short, it requires efficiency that he’s yet to prove.
For his career, the 6’8″ tight end averages a target once every 13.1 routes and a catch once every 19.1. He owns a 68.6% career catch rate, and each catch picks up an average of 11.1 yards.
If we are playing the odds, to go over his prop tonight, we need a minimum of three targets — that would imply two catches. At his career rates, that would require him to run over 39 routes, something he has done four times in 38 career games.
But wait, there’s more! The majority of his targets this season have come in the red zone, effective looks for the Chargers, but ones that come with capped yardage upside. Significantly capped in the case of Parham, who has racked up a total of five yards on his three scores this season.
Before the jury rests, your honor, I want to present to you Gerald Everett’s snap share over the past four games:
- Week 2: 41%
- Week 3: 58%
- Week 4: 69%
- Week 6: 74%
Pick: Donald Parham under 14.5 yards (-115 on DraftKings)
Patrick Mahomes Player Props
- Passing Yards: 278.5 (Over -115/Under -115)
- Pass Touchdowns: 2.5 (Over +140/Under -180)
- Pass Completions: 26.5 (Over -105/Under -125)
- Pass Attempts: 37.5 (Over -105/Under -125)
- Rushing Yards: 25.5 (Over -120/Under -110)
- Interceptions: 0.5 (Over +120/Under -150)
Blewis: This Chargers pass defense is BAD. Currently, they’re allowing the most passing yards per game by more than 15 yards per game and have the sixth-worst dropback success rate.
They allowed Dak Prescott to have his most efficient game of the season last week and now have to face Patrick Mahomes on a short week. It almost seems too easy, but in a game that I’m anticipating to go back and forth, I like Mahomes to go over his yardage prop today against this Chargers defense.
Pick: Patrick Mahomes over 278.5 passing yards (-115 at DraftKings)
Isiah Pacheco Player Props
- Rushing Yards: 62.5 (Over -115/Under -115)
- Rush Attempts: 14.5 (Over -115/Under -115)
- Receiving Yards: 16.5 (Over -120/Under -110)
- Receptions: 2.5 (Over -115/Under -115)
- Anytime Touchdown Scorer: -125
- First Touchdown Scorer: +550
Blewis: Isiah Pacheco didn’t get into the end zone last week against the Broncos but was on a three-game streak of scoring a touchdown prior to that. The days of Jerick McKinnon being utilized as a red-zone weapon are long gone after he had 10 touchdowns last season, and Clyde Edwards-Helaire is nowhere near good enough to be cutting into Pacheco’s usage in scoring situations.
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The Chiefs, especially for their standards, struggled to score in their 19-8 win over the Denver Broncos. Although the Broncos have the worst defense in the NFL, it’s not uncommon to see uncharacteristic performances from teams on short weeks. For today, the Chiefs have had 10 days to prepare and should have more scoring opportunities.
Pick: Isiah Pacheco anytime touchdown (-125 at DraftKings)
Travis Kelce Player Props
- Receiving Yards: 72.5 (Over -115/Under -115)
- Receptions: 6.5 (Over -120/Under -110)
- Longest Reception: 21.5 (Over -115/Under -115)
- Anytime Touchdown Scorer: -135
- First Touchdown Scorer: +550
Blewis: Travis Kelce is coming off a monster game and his best of the season, as he caught all nine of his targets for 124 yards. Recently, Kelce has owned the Chargers, as he had three touchdowns in their last meeting and has averaged 115.3 yards per game in his last four games against them.
I’m not expecting today to go any differently for Kelce, and this play here is obviously correlated with my Mahomes bet — the Chiefs’ wide receivers have been bad, and Mahomes has to throw the ball to somebody! Would play this number all the way up to 80.
Pick: Travis Kelce over 72.5 receiving yards (-115 at DraftKings)