Tom Brady is a free agent for the first time in his career, and rumors have been flying regarding potential destinations for the 42-year-old veteran, but perhaps none more intriguing than the Indianapolis Colts. Of course, Brady could always decide to return to New England for the 2020 season. However, if he does decide to take his talents elsewhere, many of his options are not very good fits for the veteran quarterback. There are other teams that he might prefer to join, but when taking the needs of both parties into account, the best, and perhaps only, landing spot for Brady is in Indianapolis.
What makes the Colts a good option for Brady?
You might wonder what would motivate Brady to join the Colts. After all, they were mediocre at best in 2019, and they don’t have any real stars at the offensive skill positions. But it’s easy to forget that Indianapolis seemed like the favorites to win their division before Andrew Luck’s sudden retirement.
His departure hurt their chances, but they still managed to finish the season with seven wins, far more than you might expect from a team whose season had such a turbulent start, which speaks to the excellent job done by head coach Frank Reich.
Brady’s new offense wouldn’t be void of talent either. Despite likely losing Eric Ebron to free agency, the team still has excellent weapons in wide receiver T.Y. Hilton and Pro-Bowl tight end Jack Doyle, as well as a pair of solid running backs in Marlon Mack and Nyheim Hines. Most importantly, Indianapolis has one of the best offensive lines in football.
Led by 2019 first-team All-Pro Quenton Nelson, the line has three first-round picks and had two pro-bowlers in 2019. For a veteran like Brady, who is veritably ancient by NFL standards and was never particularly mobile, to begin with, a dominant offensive line is incredibly valuable.
Why other free-agent options are not a good fit for Brady
Although the Colts have a lot to offer, there are many other quarterback-needy teams that might seem to be a better option for Brady. However, many of those teams have compelling reasons to avoid signing him.
For example, the Miami Dolphins and Los Angeles Chargers both have early picks in a draft that has multiple high-profile quarterback prospects. I do not believe it would be in either team’s best interests to spend a large amount of money on a quarterback who is already past his prime.
Unfortunately for the Colts, they don’t have the same luxury. By the time they are on the clock with the 13th pick, the day-one starters at quarterback will most likely have already been selected. A veteran quarterback like Brady is their best option if they want to compete immediately.
Other rumored destinations, such as the Dallas Cowboys or Detroit Lions, have a different reason for staying away from Brady. Simply put, he would be a downgrade from their current starters. Last season, Brady was solid, but uninspiring, throwing for 4,057 yards, 24 touchdowns, and eight interceptions. Meanwhile, Dak Prescott was one of the NFL’s best at his position, with almost 5,000 yards and 30 touchdowns to just 11 interceptions.
And although Matt Stafford’s season was cut short by injury, if he had continued at the pace he was setting, he would have ended the season with similar numbers 4,998 yards, 38 touchdowns, and ten interceptions. In terms of his conventional statistics, Brady can’t compare to either of them.
Even more troubling than Brady’s lack of statistical success was his low impact on the Patriots offense, as indicated by Pro Football Network’s Offensive Share Metric (OSM). The metric measures how much influence a player had over their own statistics, and therefore over the statistics of their offense overall.
This metric was not kind to Brady. His season grade of 19.69 ranked 28th out of 39 qualifying quarterbacks, primarily due to his low completion percentage, at 60.8%, which was 3.1% lower than expected according to the NFL’s calculations, the eighth-largest differential in the NFL.
On this metric also, Prescott and Stafford outperformed Brady by an enormous margin. Their respective grades of 29.33 and 32.0 ranked fifth and second overall. So, not only were Prescott and Stafford better statistically, but they also had more influence over their production than Brady did over his.
In short, both players outperformed Brady in pretty much every category except for wins. To put it bluntly, for either Dallas or Detroit to trade their current quarterbacks for him would be insane.
What makes the Colts different
Although Brady failed to stack up to some of the NFL’s best quarterbacks from last season, there was one player who he compared favorably to. Of the ten quarterbacks that received a lower OSM grade than he did, five were rookies, two were backups, and two were veterans with a history of success. In other words, those nine were all players who are unlikely to be replaced by a veteran starter.
The other player, the lone exception to this trend and the lowest graded quarterback in the entire NFL, was Indianapolis’ starting quarterback Jacoby Brissett, who received a grade of 16.45.
The fact that the Colts managed to reach seven wins despite starting the NFL’s least impactful player at the most crucial position shows just how much potential their roster truly has, and why Brady would be an excellent fit for them.
It’s the perfect match: Indianapolis, a talented team just a quarterback away from becoming a serious contender, and Brady, a slightly past-his-prime quarterback looking for a talented team that he can lead on one last Super Bowl run.
Obstacles standing between Brady and the Colts
There are a few caveats here that bear mentioning. First, it only makes sense for Indianapolis to sign Brady if they plan on making a Super Bowl run next season. If they are willing to wait, they could either draft a quarterback later in the first round who needs more time to develop, such as Jordan Love, or hold off on drafting a quarterback until next year, when talented players like Trevor Lawrence and Justin Fields will likely declare for the draft.
Related: 2020 NFL Draft: Pre-Combine 7-round mock draft
Additionally, Brady is not the only veteran quarterback available to the Colts in free agency. Phillip Rivers and the Chargers are parting ways, and while he was far from perfect last season, it could be argued that he is a better player than Brady at this point in their respective careers.
Choosing between the two players requires weighing many complex factors, and many of the arguments that I used in this article could work in Rivers’ favor. That said, if Brady and Indianapolis can come to an agreement, it could be a perfect pairing for both sides.