It’s a battle of former Alabama quarterbacks when the Carolina Panthers and Bryce Young visit the Miami Dolphins and Tua Tagovailoa today. That may be the most intriguing aspect of a matchup that features the league’s lone winless team against an offense that is putting up numbers at a historic pace.
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Panthers vs. Dolphins Betting Lines, Start Time, and More
All odds from DraftKings Sportsbook.
- Spread: Dolphins -14.5
- Moneyline: Panthers (+750); Dolphins (-1200)
- Over/Under: 47.5
- Game time: 1 p.m. ET
- Location: Hard Rock Stadium
- Channel: CBS
Panthers vs. Dolphins Prediction
This line opened at Miami -10.5 and has not showed the slightest sign of going down. If there was another week before this game, the line may have stretched to -20 for the Dolphins.
It appears everything is in place for another terrific outing by the Dolphins’ offense. At full strength, the Panthers would have a difficult time keeping up with Miami. But with Carolina’s injury problems, including being down not one, not two, but three starters in the defensive backfield, it feels like a near-impossibility for the Panthers to pull out a game like this.
But can they cover this ever-increasing spread?
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The Dolphins are leading the NFL in scoring offense (36.2 ppg), passing offense (327.8 ypg), and rushing offense (185.8 ypg). Only two times has a team ever led the NFL in all three categories for an entire season: the 1939 Bears and 1941 Bears.
Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa has been putting up MVP-like numbers so far, with a league-best 1,614 passing yards, 72% completion percentage, 11 TD passes, and a passer rating of 111.9, second only to the 49ers’ Brock Purdy. He has won 11 of his last 12 home starts, and if there is any hope for Carolina in this game, getting pressure on Tagovailoa would seem to be its best chance.
Eight of Tagovailoa’s 11 TD passes this season have come when he has not been under pressure. And when he has been pressured this season, Tagovailoa’s passer rating drops from 118.2 when not under pressure to 89.0.
The problem is, according to the NFL’s Next Gen Stats, the Panthers rank 29th in quarterback pressures with 50.
It also doesn’t help matters that Carolina has allowed 100 or more rush yards in six straight games, the second-longest active streak in the league (Giants are at seven in a row).
Offensively, the Panthers will lean on their No. 1 pick, quarterback Bryce Young. But to this point, Young has been less than impressive. Young has a completion percentage of 36.8%, with one TD pass and three interceptions on passes with 10 or more air yards.
As mentioned, the oddsmakers continue to try and coax you into taking a chance on the Panthers, with the spread growing to better than two touchdowns. But not only has Carolina failed to win a game outright this season, it hasn’t covered a spread yet, going 0-4-1 against the spread. (Dolphins are 4-1 ATS, by the way).
At the end of the day, I’m left with these questions.
Who is stopping Tyreek Hill? Or Jaylen Waddle? Or Raheem Mostert?
The Dolphins are too talented and too fast to expect anything other than a blowout victory today. Believe it or not, I think the over is in play here, because I’m convinced Miami can cover the number on its own.
But in terms of the line, I’m going to give up the big number and take the Dolphins.
Best Bet: Dolphins -14.5 (-110 at DraftKings SportsBook)