Is this a blowout in the making? Fantasy football managers will be starting a handful of players in this game and could see their matchup hinge on the final game on Sunday. The Buffalo Bills‘ fantasy preview talks about their streaking receiver, while the New York Giants‘ fantasy outlook tries to make sense of this passing game.
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New York Giants at Buffalo Bills
- Spread: Bills -14
- Total: 44.5
- Giants implied points: 15.3
- Bills implied points: 29.3
Quarterbacks
Daniel Jones: Do you remember being the smallest one on the Pop Warner field, wearing a lineman jersey number to seem bigger — even though the number essentially wrapped around you — and your mom telling you after practice that she was proud of you for trying?
C’mon, it couldn’t have been just me. Anyway, that’s what Jones hitting five different players with his first five passes on Sunday felt like. Good try, kid. Momma Soppe will give you a pat on the back, but like her eldest child, you never had a chance.
Jones left in the fourth quarter with a neck injury and didn’t return. But after those first five, his next 15 passes picked up just 87 yards. And, for the third game in a row, he accounted for the same number of touchdowns as Pop Warner’s skinniest No. 63 of all-time — zero.
We thought Jones would be, at minimum, a fine fantasy streamer this season. We were wrong. I don’t want any piece of him this week or for the remainder of the month, which features home games against the Commanders and Jets. Should he sit (as expected), Tyrod Taylor will assume the starting role, and not a single thing in my rankings will change. Taylor would simply replace Mr. Dimes in my QB ranks and be equally unappealing to me.
Josh Allen: The rushing numbers are down from years past, but fantasy managers certainly aren’t arguing with the results. Allen has consecutive games with at least 320 passing yards, and he has rushed for a score in three straight.
You could argue that the dip in rushing attempts lowers the floor of Allen, but as long as he is getting the valuable carries and continuing to develop his pass catchers, I have zero concerns.
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He is firmly in the top tier of fantasy signal-callers and could well lead the position in points the rest of the way.
Running Backs
Saquon Barkley: It’s been nearly a month since we last saw the Giants star, but it does seem like his status is in question a little bit longer each week. That’s good news, and without much in the way of travel for the remainder of October (this game is followed by a pair of home games), the hope is that Barkley can get all the rehab work in that he needs and return to fantasy lineups this weekend.
I’m not even close to suggesting that Barkley is a sit, but I am a sharer of information. Barkley missed the majority of 2020 with a torn ACL and was underwhelming upon his initial return to action.
In his first two games back, he totaled 26 touches for 96 yards and zero touchdowns. That’s not to compare this injury with that, but I did find the struggles coming off of an injury worth noting.
Matt Breida: We are now in the middle of October, and Breida is still searching for his first 10-yard carry of the 2023 season. I understand that we chase volume, and he has technically been the primary option in this backfield with Barkley sidelined, but if he’s not even a reasonable flex option when his role is at its greatest, why roster him?
If you need the roster space, Breida should be among your first cuts, and that’s without me having clarity on Barkley.
James Cook: Per the Week 6 Cheat Sheet, the Bills trailed for 51 of their 54 plays in London last week and had the ball for under 22 minutes – a game flow that makes running back production nearly impossible. Cook only totaled five carries for -4 yards.
As discouraging as the output was, Cook did record an 18-plus yard touch for a fourth straight week, which is further proof that the explosive play is in his skill set. With nearly 39% of carries gaining a first down against the Giants (fifth highest rate), this looks like a nice bounce-back spot for the talented Cook. It lands him as a top-15 running back for me.
Latavius Murray: I prefer Murray to RB Damien Harris if you’re trying to bet against Cook, but I just don’t see the point in doing it. Neither has more than seven carries in a game this season, and if you want to chase a touchdown, take a shot on a big-play receiver. Cook isn’t a back that needs to be insured.
Wide Receivers
Wan’Dale Robinson: Robinson has caught 14 of 17 targets this season. He was tested for a concussion during the Week 5 loss to the Dolphins, but he was able to return.
In a perfect world, you don’t have to count on any member of this passing game, but if you play in a full-PPR league, Robinson is in play as a high-floor, low-ceiling option due to his short depth of target, and the projected game script.
Darius Slayton: Slayton has just one game with more than 35 receiving yards this season, but he easily paced Giants receivers in routes last week. That is enough for him to stay on my radar.
He’s not worth rostering right now, and he may never be, but with bulk bye weeks coming sooner than later, a gunner like Slayton, who is on the field plenty, deserves acknowledgment.
Stefon Diggs: He is on the list of most consistent fantasy producers in our game, and with four 100-yard games already on his 2023 ledger, that’s not changing anytime soon.
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The consistent volume of 10 targets per game and the big-play potential of a 30+ yard grab in three straight games makes for a profile that is nothing short of elite.
Gabe Davis is the WR12 on the season with four straight games with a TD 🎉 pic.twitter.com/tr5Pa789fG
— Fantasy Footballers (@TheFFBallers) October 10, 2023
Gabe Davis: “Big Play Gabe” has scored in a career-high four straight games, but more encouraging than that was his season-high eight targets against the Jags last week. If he can sustain that level of involvement, he will be a weekly starter. That’s my hope for him moving forward. But this is my hope, not my projection. Not yet, at least.
He failed to see more than four targets in three of four games to open this season, and with a usage floor like that, I can’t get Davis inside of my top 25. His upside, however, lands him in my top 35, ahead of both Broncos pass catchers and bigger names like DeAndre Hopkins and Garrett Wilson.
Tight Ends
Darren Waller: Eight catches for 86 yards may not sound like an explosive effort, but it was more than double Waller’s season average entering the weekend, so you have to take it!
He continues to pace this team in reception share by a wide margin, and that is keeping him inside my top 10 every week. Is he the star we had hoped for when New York moved to get him? Nope, but he still deserves lineup lock status with over a 90% snap share in consecutive weeks at the hardest position in fantasy sports to fill.
Dalton Kincaid: We continue to go back and forth with the tight end position in Buffalo. While the rookie is the future in upstate New York, it was Dawson Knox holding the edge in snaps (42-32) and routes (29-24) in London.
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I still have Kincaid winning this valuable role with time, but I will admit that we are not there yet. Right now, Kincaid is more of a streamer than someone who needs to be held onto week-over-week.
Should You Start Darren Waller or Logan Thomas?
Keep an eye on Waller’s groin injury, but as long as he is active, I’m leaning in that direction due to the projected game flow. His skill set is safe and transferable in a game where the Giants should be forced to throw 10-15 more passes than the Commanders throw this week.
I like Thomas as the top streamer at the position this week, but that is a tier below where I have Waller ranked.
Should You Start Gabe Davis or Christian Kirk?
Much has changed since Kirk was shut down against the Colts in Week 1 and I expect that growth to continue as opposed to the egg to be repeated. Kirk and Trevor Lawrence have a clear connection, and he proved last week that he can produce next to an effective Calvin Ridley, a box I needed to see checked.
Davis has been paying the fantasy bills of late, though the inconsistent volume is a worry. I don’t doubt that Buffalo will move the ball in this spot, only a matter of how they do it. At this point in the rankings, I value Kirk’s floor more than Davis’ ceiling and lean that way in a question that involves two very flex-worthy options.