Fantasy football managers got serious production from pieces in both of these offenses last week — does it continue? The Philadelphia Eagles‘ fantasy preview digs into the value of DeVonta Smith, while the New York Jets’ fantasy outlook revolves around their star running back coming off of a massive effort.
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Philadelphia Eagles at New York Jets
- Spread: Eagles -7
- Total: 41
- Eagles implied points: 24
- Jets implied points: 17
Quarterbacks
Jalen Hurts: After a QB19 finish to open the season, Hurts has finished inside the top 10 at the position in four straight games, including consecutive 300-yard games. As a Week 6 stat watch, he’s never had three straight.
With at least nine rush attempts in every game and 37+ pass attempts in three straight, there is no reason to consider Hurts as anything but a Tier 1 fantasy asset at the quarterback position.
Zach Wilson: He has completed 72.3% of his passes over the past two weeks and is making minor strides, but it’s not nearly enough to matter. Any growth he can make will be felt by those with RB Breece Hall or WR Garrett Wilson on their roster. Also, he’s not close to being on the radar in anything but two-QB leagues.
Running Backs
D’Andre Swift: Swift has at least 18 touches in all four games since the highly questionable two-touch season opener.
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With a 49-30 snap edge over Kenneth Gainwell (used primarily as a two-minute, third-down option) last week, it’s clear that this backfield is all his.
In all four of those games, Swift has excelled in one portion of this offense. In Weeks 4-5, he caught all 10 of his targets after rushing for 305 yards in Weeks 2-3. The Jets’ defense ranks 25th in yards per carry allowed, and with the Eagles installed as big favorites, you’re safe to label Swift as a low-end RB1/high-end RB2 in all formats.
Breece Hall: We got word prior to kickoff last week that Hall was going to be unleashed, and that came to fruition. He netted 25 touches for 197 yards and a touchdown. That’ll work!
As fun as Week 5 was for Hall loyalists, now comes the true test. The Broncos’ defense is on a historically bad pace, so while Hall’s production was encouraging, it does come with a bit of an asterisk.
The reigning NFC champions are the fourth-best per-carry defense in the league and the worst matchup for opposing running backs when you factor in potential game script and projected time of possession.
Rushing yards leaders from Week 5 in the #NFL:
1️⃣ Breece Hall, #Jets – 177
2️⃣ Zack Moss, #Colts – 165
3️⃣ De'Von Achane, #Dolphins – 151
4️⃣ Travis Etienne Jr, #Jaguars – 136
5️⃣ David Montgomery, #Lions – 109@PFNFantasy RB waiver-wire targets for Week 6: https://t.co/RbeMnNtR26 pic.twitter.com/SaMqxWxcYE— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) October 10, 2023
I have Hall ranked as a mid-range RB2 this week as I try to gauge the value of his extended workload. If he produces top-20 numbers in this spot, he can safely be labeled as a lineup lock moving forward, even in an offense that is limited.
You shouldn’t care, but if you do, RB Michael Carter was on the field more than RB Dalvin Cook last week and ran a route on 85% of those snaps. The Jets have clearly committed to Hall as their guy and have no interest in consistently using a secondary option. If Cooks is still on the bottom of your roster for some reason, feel free to move on.
Wide Receivers
A.J. Brown: I’m old enough to remember when the internet lost its collective mind about Brown throwing a fit on the sideline a month ago. It’s safe to say that the team has figured things out since.
He has become the first Eagle in over 50 years to rack up at least 125 receiving yards in three straight games.
There were conversations late last season, and they spilled over into this season, about DeVonta Smith potentially being the true top receiver in this offense. Brown has silenced those talks and should be viewed as one of the six best receivers this week and beyond.
DeVonta Smith: Is it time to worry here? Per the Week 6 Cheat Sheet, Smith hasn’t been a top-70 receiver in two of the past three weeks — a floor that is downright unacceptable for a player that some fantasy teams have as their top receiver.
Earlier, I mentioned the Dolphins being an offense akin to the house that leaves their lights on and never runs out of candy on Halloween. The Eagles (and the 49ers, for that matter) are the opposite. They turn off the lights early and leave a huge bowl of candy on the front step. The first player to find it cashes in big, while the rest of the neighborhood kids are left wanting more.
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Smith hasn’t been the first to the stoop lately, and that has resulted in fantasy losses for those counting on him. Don’t sweat it. You have to take the good with the bad and trust that Smith will find that pot of gold (or Reece’s pumpkins) sooner than later.
Garrett Wilson: The offense as a whole looked better, but it wasn’t because Zach Wilson got the pass game rolling.
The team’s star receiver has failed to clear 60 receiving yards in four of five games, and in an offense that offers very few scoring opportunities, Wilson remains outside of my top 30.
I’d rather take my chances on the secondary receiver for the Bills, Vikings, Chargers, or Broncos than roll the dice on the Jets’ top option.
Tight Ends
Dallas Goedert: After an underwhelming first four games of 88 total receiving yards, Goedert broke out against the Rams with 117 yards and a touchdown. Have I mentioned that this Eagles pass catcher situation reminds me of the 49ers yet?
I don’t doubt that Goedert will have a few more games like this, but they will come at the cost of a few duds like what we saw in September. At most positions, that’s not a profile I’m comfortable with, but the TE position is not “most” positions.
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The potential for a big game makes Goedert a top-10 lock every week he is active, but I wouldn’t blame you if you looked to sell high after his big Week 5.
Should You Start Dallas Goedert or Sam LaPorta?
The Week 5 explosion from Goedert was great to see and I think you can start him weekly, but if you’re making this decision, the rookie holds the edge. While Goedert has to deal with two elite pass-catching teammates and a mobile quarterback, Sam LaPorta has only a banged-up Amon-Ra St. Brown ahead of him in the Lions’ hierarchy with no threat of Jared Goff producing on the ground.
LaPorta is threatening to enter the second tier of fantasy tight end and will rank ahead of Goedert most weeks.
Should You Start Breece Hall or Alexander Mattison?
I think both are viable this weekend, but I trust Kirk Cousins to put Alexander Mattison in scoring position more than I do Wilson with Hall. I have a similar touch projection for them, making touchdown equity the deciding factor for me in this spot.