On paper, this looks like a mismatch with plenty of fantasy football potential on one side. Will that be the case? The Miami Dolphins‘ fantasy preview takes a look at their backfield without De’Von Achane, while the Carolina Panthers‘ fantasy outlook revolves around their star veteran receiver.
Carolina Panthers at Miami Dolphins
- Spread: Dolphins -13.5
- Total: 48.5
- Panthers implied points: 17.5
- Dolphins implied points: 31
Quarterbacks
Bryce Young: Is it true that he scored a career-high 18.3 fantasy points last week and finished ahead of Tua Tagovailoa, Trevor Lawrence, and Lamar Jackson? It is.
Is it also true that you should read absolutely nothing into that fact? It is.
More than half of those fantasy points came in two late touchdown drives with the game against the Lions all but over. All stats count the same on the scoreboard, but not when it comes to projecting things forward.
With limited rushing upside and a lack of playmakers surrounding him, Young is still a ways away from mattering in standard leagues.
Tua Tagovailoa: Did you know that despite the Dolphins having the greatest yardage offense through five weeks in NFL history, Tagovailoa has just two finishes better than QB12 this season?
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I expect him to add to that total this weekend with Achane on the shelf, placing more value in the chunk plays through the air that we know this team is more than capable of producing.
Tagovailoa has completed at least 70% of his passes in four straight games and is pacing for 5,488 yards through the air. He’s QB5 for me this week with the upside to be the position’s top performer.
Running Backs
Miles Sanders and Chuba Hubbard: This is a classic “if you have two, you don’t have one” situation. In the Week 5 loss to the Lions, Sanders lost his second fumble of the season while Hubbard turned 11 opportunities into just 35 yards.
Not a single one of Sanders’ 76 touches has gained more than 15 yards, and to that underwhelming stat, Hubbard says, “Hold my beer.”
Over the past three weeks, Hubbard has gained 77 yards on 24 carries (3.2 yards per carry). I’m not sure there is enough upside in this offense to support a single back, but I’m sure it makes no sense to look this way with the snaps split directly down the middle.
De’Von Achane: For the first time in three weeks, I will not be misleading you on the efficiency god that is Achane. He has been ruled OUT for this week and likely more.
The reports made it a point to highlight that this knee injury wasn’t season-ending, leading to speculation that this could be a Week 11 return following the team’s bye.
But you already knew that. You’re here for the bonkers pace stats, and I’m nothing if not a man of the people. Per the Week 6 Cheat Sheet:
- 2022 Christian McCaffrey: 308.5 fantasy points on 329 touches
- 2023 Achane: 680.4 fantasy-point pace if you gave him 329 touches
Raheem Mostert: He has been a top-10 running back in three of the past four weeks. If he assumes just half of Achane’s work, Mostert will be flirting with 20 touches in an offense that has been as productive through five games as any in NFL history.
Mostert is a top-15 RB regardless of the matchup with Achane shelved and is a top-10 play this weekend against a Panthers defense that ranks 28th in yards per carry allowed (4.9).
It is, of course, worth noting that the fumble issues are there. Mostert put the ball on the deck again last week (knocked out of bounds, so no harm), giving him three fumbles over the past two weeks. Considering that Miami is the only thing that can stop Miami right now, that flaw could prove fatal if not cleaned up.
Jeff Wilson Jr.: Wilson is set to make his 2023 debut after a nice showing with the ‘Fins last season (4.7 yards per carry and four scores in eight games). His activation coincides nicely with the Achane injury, though it’s unlikely that he absorbs that role.
Mostert is to be viewed as the alpha in this backfield until otherwise noted, but that’s not to say Wilson can’t hold some standalone value.
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Halloween is nearly upon us, and the Dolphins are the house that doesn’t run out of candy and leaves their light on all night. There are plenty of fantasy points to go around in this offense, and that could land Wilson as a strong Flex play if he can prove his health before Achane returns to the mix.
Wide Receivers
Adam Thielen: The veteran receiver has been a top-22 WR in each of the past four weeks and continues to be peppered with targets (44 over that stretch).
The upside is certainly capped as a part of the eighth-lowest scoring offense in the NFL, but with over 67% of opponent yards against the Dolphins coming through the air (a very game-flow-dependent stat), Thielen should again prove to be a viable Flex option at worst.
Highest WR target rate with at least a step of seperation, min 25 tgts (excl designed)
Chris Olave – 92%
Tyreek Hill – 86%
Tank Dell – 86%
Puka Nacua – 82%
Ja’Marr Chase – 81%
Adam Thielen – 80%
Nico Collins – 79%
Josh Downs – 79%
Brandon Aiyuk – 78%— Football Insights 📊 (@fball_insights) October 11, 2023
DJ Chark and Jonathan Mingo: Both are on the field plenty, but neither is seeing the type of consistent usage that it takes to be considered restorable in this well-below-average offense.
Chark has scored in two of the past three games, while Mingo is averaging a respectable 6.5 targets per game, putting them in the “if you’re desperate” tier of receiver at best.
I’m cautiously optimistic about Young supporting one receiver. I have no plans on tempting fate by putting two Panthers pass catchers inside my top 40.
Tyreek Hill: For the third time this season, Hill cleared 150 yards and scored.
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That is a ceiling game for most but is becoming a regular occurrence for the Cheetah. He has accounted for nearly half of Miami’s air yards this season (48.5%) and is catching a career-high 73.5% of his targets.
No part of what Hill is doing looks fluky, and if this team opts to go even more pass-heavy sans Achane, his 2,000-yard goal is looking more achievable by the week.
Jaylen Waddle: The buy-low window closed a bit last week as Waddle caught his first touchdown pass of the season and saw a season-high 10 targets against the overmatched Giants.
That said, he has yet to catch more than five passes in a game this season and has posted consecutive weeks with under 50 receiving yards. Waddle’s aDOT has dropped nearly 4.5 yards from his field-stretching 2022 (down 35.8%), a role that should result in a more narrow range of outcomes.
I firmly believe that better days are ahead. One top-30 performance over five weeks is not something I’m betting on repeating. However, you do need to be aware that Waddle’s role is closer to that of 2021 than that of 2022, and thus, the ceiling weeks won’t likely be as glorious.
Tight Ends
Neither one of these teams currently boasts a tight end that is even on the streaming radar. Check out my Week 6 TE streamers article if you’d like a few names to consider at the position.
Should You Start Adam Thielen or Marquise Brown?
Both of these receivers have overachieved based on preseason expectations and are deservedly being considered viable options. I prefer the efficiency of Thielen over the upside of Brown, especially with unreliable quarterback play in both situations.
You’ve stumbled upon a good problem to have in a spot like this, and, if I’m being honest, I don’t hate the idea of trading either (or both) at their current value.
Should You Start Miles Sanders or Emari Demercado?
I’m not too high on either of these options, as I fear a committee situation in underwhelming offenses for both. We have a larger sample size of Sanders producing, and his involvement in the pass game is enough to earn him the nod here.