Should fantasy football managers target any fringe players in this game? The Washington Commanders‘ fantasy preview focuses on the streamability of their quarterback, while the Atlanta Falcons‘ fantasy outlook dives into the distribution of targets.
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Washington Commanders at Atlanta Falcons
- Spread: Falcons -2.5
- Total: 42
- Commanders implied points: 19.8
- Falcons implied points: 22.3
Quarterbacks
Sam Howell: It’s not always pretty, but he has cleared 20 fantasy points in three of his past four games and has ranked inside the top 15 at the position in four of five games this season. He’s not Mike Vick, but he does have a 10+ yard carry in four straight games, one of the positives for him having to run for his life consistently (29 sacks).
My worry here, on top of the downside that comes with the sacks, is his lack of interest in featuring his star receiver, Terry McLaurin. There are not one, not two, not three, but four Commanders averaging 5.4-6.2 targets per game. Spreading the ball around is great, but with a clear WR1, the distribution shouldn’t be this even.
Howell remains a nice streaming option, though with only Jordan Love and Kenny Pickett on bye this week, I’m not sure you need to dig this deep.
Desmond Ridder: If you have a good feel for the Falcons and think they can win, then Ridder is worth a look. In their past two wins (per the Week 6 Cheat Sheet), he’s averaging 23.8 fantasy points, and in their two losses this season, he’s averaging 6.3.
On a more serious note, the seven-yard touchdown run was a schemed play, and that’s encouraging. That said, he still has more multi-interception games than multi-passing TD games this season, and that’s going to significantly cap his upside. The playmakers around Ridder give him upside, depending on the matchup.
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This matchup isn’t that, though, with extra time for the Commanders to prepare for a rather bland offense.
Running Backs
Brian Robinson: He was completely scripted out of the Week 5 blowout loss to Chicago, so he has an excuse for 10 rushing yards. This is a devil on one shoulder and an angel on the other situation for me.
ANGEL
In a game where the Commanders were trailing, Robinson was on the field plenty and reeled in all four of his targets. He has multiple grabs in three of his past four games and already has as many catches (and 28 more receiving yards) as he had all of last season.
DEVIL
That’s three straight weeks for Robinson with under 15 carries, and if you remove his two longest carries of the season, he’s down to 3.4 yards per carry. He scored twice against a Broncos defense that was beginning their historically poor run but has just one score on his other 49 carries this season.
This is a fine matchup that doesn’t scare me, though I’m losing faith that Robinson possesses much of a ceiling. Play him in the James Conner tier of reasonable-floor RBs, despite the down in Week 5 that got away from Washington.
Antonio Gibson: He was on the field for 38 snaps due to the nature of the game. With the spike in playing time, he got his hands on the ball four times. His next week with more than seven touches this season will be his first. There’s no reason to keep him on your roster at this point.
Bijan Robinson: In the battle of the B. Robinsons, Atlanta’s rookie holds the significant edge. The ease with which he makes plays in space is well beyond his years, and it’s hard to imagine a player like this being held without a rushing touchdown (67 carries) for much longer.
Bijan. Robinson. pic.twitter.com/syOSRqrBlx
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) October 8, 2023
The one-handed touchdown against the Texans was a thing of beauty for most. It is the type of play he makes routinely.
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With Christian McCaffrey in a tough matchup against a Browns team coming off a bye, Robinson holds the RB1 spot in my rankings this week and is angling for a career game.
Tyler Allgeier: The touch count is enough to justify him on your roster, but the upside is capped in a major way. Allgeier hasn’t scored since Week 1 and ran a route on just 27.3% of his snaps last week (Robinson: 48.9%).
With under 50 total yards in four straight games, Allgeier is nothing more than roster depth/Robinson insurance at this point.
Wide Receivers
Terry McLaurin: The Commanders were forced into a pass-heavy score-quick script last week against the Bears. McLaurin saw a 10.4% target share. Wait, what?
I’m not exactly sure how that happens in a plus matchup, and I don’t think it will again, but the idea that it can happen is worrisome.
Four Commanders are averaging 5.4-6.2 targets per game this season and, should that continue, McLaurin isn’t going to return anywhere near the value we thought he would when we were drafting this summer.
The only thing worse than playing McLaurin last week might be playing him this week against A.J. Terrell in a game that probably doesn’t feature 51 Howell pass attempts. He’s a fringe top-30 receiver for me this week, easily the lowest rank I’ve assigned him this season.
Jahan Dotson: He’s 23 years old. By no means am I writing him off and I actually think he’s a fine dynasty buy right now, but with him yet to clear 40 receiving yards in a game this season, he doesn’t need to be rostered, let alone started.
We knew the efficiency from his standout rookie season would regress; nobody scores once every five receptions.
However, he was flirting with 15 yards per catch last season and is now hovering around eight. If the big play is no longer a part of his role, Doctson is a talent-based stash at best who has shown us nothing this season that demands a roster spot.
Curtis Samuel: It may not be spectacular, but with over 50 receiving yards in four of five games and north of 14 fantasy points in both of his games this month, Samuel is working his way onto fantasy benches due to an elevated floor.
The ceiling is capped (5.4 targets per game and only one season on his résumé with more than five touchdown catches), but with gadgety plays to get him in space, you could do worse when your roster is hit hard with byes and/or injuries.
That’s probably not the case this week, however, so Samuel is still outside of my top 40 at the position.
Drake London: He has reached double figures in three of his past four games.
While the upside is limited, at least there is something of a floor that we weren’t sure would be possible.
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Of course, given how this offense functions, the volume is always a risk (no more than three catches in three of five games) and is enough of a concern to have him ranked outside my top 30 at the position in this matchup.
Tight Ends
Logan Thomas: Thomas has been a good player when healthy at various points of his career; staying on the field has just been the issue. Could that again prove true as the weather cools for this 32-year-old?
Of course, though, that shouldn’t stop you from taking advantage of this role while he has it. The starting tight end for Washington has scored or seen at least seven targets in four of five games this season, and he proved to be Howell’s security blanket last week (more catches than any of his teammates had targets and a team-high 77 receiving yards).
At a position where volume is nearly impossible to find, Thomas is a top-12 player for me, and his value only increases in a full-PPR or TE premium setting.
Kyle Pitts and Jonnu Smith: I wouldn’t have an issue in turning to this limited offense if one tight end had the pass-catching role to himself, but as long as that’s not the case, neither Pitts nor Smith will be cracking my top 12 at the position.
In Week 5 against the Texans, Smith held the edge in both snaps (49-40) and routes (26-25), but it was Pitts producing for fantasy managers with seven catches and 87 yards.
Is it possible that Pitts is getting healthy and we will look back on that performance as a turning point? I guess so, but until Smith stops earning targets in a similar role, why challenge fate? Why take on a committee in a run-centric offense when there are solo options in more neutral offenses on your waiver wire?
Should You Start Brian Robinson or Breece Hall?
Robinson’s role wasn’t useful in Week 5, but I don’t expect that to be the case this week. As for Hall, it was great to see him unleashed in an ideal matchup, but now he faces one of the strongest run defenses in the sport.
I have Robinson ranked as the better RB2 this week due to my per-carry production projection for him. The raw touch count for these two should be similar. While I do not think the Commanders light up the scoreboard this week, I do think they have considerably more success moving the ball than the Jets do.
Should You Start Terry McLaurin or Christian Kirk?
I mentioned the target distribution in Washington, and that is enough for me to pivot in this spot. Kirk racked up 20 targets during Jacksonville’s two-week stay in London, continuing to prove that his Week 1 dud against the same Colts team he is opposing this weekend is a thing of the past.
I trust Kirk’s target quality and quantity over that of McLaurin, slotting him a handful of spots higher in my Week 6 ranks.