MIAMI GARDENS, Fla. — With the uncertain severity of De’Von Achane’s injury, there’s nervousness both within the Miami Dolphins fan base and beyond.
But here’s the reality: An extended Achane absence will have far more impact on fantasy football managers than it will on head coach Mike McDaniel.
The news Tuesday that Achane will miss multiple weeks — and possibly go on injured reserve — certainly changes the Dolphins’ offense.
But does it make that offense appreciably worse? The numbers suggest it does not.
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Impact of De’Von Achane Injury on Miami Dolphins
Achane has been an absolute stud for the Dolphins since McDaniel incorporated him into their offense in Week 3.
In the last three games, Achane has been on the field for 49.5% of Miami’s snaps, received 24.6% of their touches, and accounted for 31.5% of their yards and 41.1% of their touchdowns. His 460 rushing yards lead all AFC backs, and the current No. 2 — Zack Moss — has 15 fewer yards on 49 more carries.
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It’s an incredible start to a career. But it’s also completely unsustainable. The NFL record for yards per carry in a season is held by Michael Vick, who averaged 8.4 in 2006.
In the Super Bowl era, Mercury Morris had the highest rushing average among running backs in a season (6.4, 1973).
Achane is averaging 12.1 yards per carry — a number so large, it defies logic.
“De’Von is blowing this thing out of the water right now,” Dolphins fullback Alec Ingold said Monday.
“It’s fun to see him grow week after week, different plays, different packages, different formations that he’s in. To take it mentally and physically, to be able to produce over and over again. So I know a lot of guys like blocking for that dude because once you get him in space and find him some grass, he’ll get going.”
De’Von Achane with 7 TD’s and 409 Rushing yards in 2.5 games this season. Insanity.
pic.twitter.com/TLAaQbCyJi— Daniel (@DanielEliesen) October 8, 2023
Spoiler Alert: The laws of physics will kick in at some point. Achane’s going to regress to the mean.
This isn’t to diminish what Achane has accomplished in a very short amount of time. There’s no denying that he’s been fabulous, and taking him out of the Dolphins’ offense will have an impact. But it won’t make it appreciably worse.
Let’s not forget that the Dolphins put up 36 points and gained 536 yards against the Chargers in Week 1 — a game that Achane watched in street clothes as a healthy scratch.
Plus, the Dolphins’ offensive roster might be better now than it was then. Running back Jeff Wilson Jr. and wide receiver Chase Claypool weren’t on the 53 then. Both could play Sunday.
And one final stat that should calm the nerves of strung-out Dolphins fans:
Per SIS, the Dolphins’ EPA per play has actually been better this year when Achane has been off the field than on it (.19 on compared to .25).
What Miami loses in rushing efficiency, they more than make up for in passing EPA when Achane has been on the sidelines.