The NFL betting lines are out for next week, but before I dive into my initial NFL Week 6 predictions and picks against the spread, let’s recap Sunday’s action, specifically the notable injuries.
Indianapolis Colts rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson left today’s game with a shoulder injury, but the X-rays were negative. Although the early reporting has been positive, Richardson didn’t return to the game.
Meanwhile, in the afternoon’s star-studded affair between the Kansas City Chiefs and Minnesota Vikings, both Travis Kelce and Justin Jefferson suffered injuries. After hurting his right foot, Kelce did come back into the game and scored a touchdown late in the third quarter. Jefferson, on the other hand, didn’t return after suffering a hamstring injury in the fourth quarter.
From my initial look at the NFL odds for next week, a couple of things stand out. After having just one double-digit favorite in Week 5, we have three next week, including the Miami Dolphins for the second week in a row. The New York Giants, who were the lone underdog of 10 or more points this past week, are 14.5-point underdogs at Buffalo next week. Meanwhile, we have seven home underdogs next week, including the Cleveland Browns against the San Francisco 49ers.
Now, let’s get into the rest of the betting lines as well as my early NFL Week 6 predictions and picks against the spread.
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NFL Week 6 Picks and Predictions
All odds are from FanDuel Sportsbook.
Denver Broncos vs. Kansas City Chiefs Odds
- Spread
Chiefs -10.5 - Moneyline
Broncos +460, Chiefs -620 - Total
51.5
Although he did return to the game, because the Chiefs are on a short week, it might not be a guarantee that Kelce will be a full-go for this one. We’ll wait for the injury reports early this week, but even though TNF games tend to go under the total, this is the Chiefs going against the Denver Broncos’ defense, which has been historically bad through five weeks.
NFL Pick and Prediction: Lean Over 51.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
Baltimore Ravens vs. Tennessee Titans Odds
- Spread
Ravens -4 - Moneyline
Ravens -198, Titans +166 - Total
40.5
Both of these teams are coming off disappointing losses to division rivals as road favorites in Week 5. The Baltimore Ravens shot themselves in the foot numerous times against the Pittsburgh Steelers, turning the ball over three times.
They should have some turnover regression coming, but it’s hard to fade the Tennessee Titans as an underdog against a playoff team, even in London. Under Mike Vrabel, they play up for these spots.
NFL Pick and Prediction: Titans +4 (-110)
San Francisco 49ers vs. Cleveland Browns
- Spread
49ers -2.5 - Moneyline
49ers -138, Browns +118 - Total
40.5
The Browns will be coming off their bye, so will Deshaun Watson be healthy? Even if he is, this will be their biggest test of the season going against this 49ers team. As historically great as their defense has been through four weeks, the Ravens showed us in Week 4 that they aren’t impossible to score on, and this is a very low total for a game featuring the 49ers’ offense.
The 49ers were supposed to be tested against this Cowboys defense, yet they looked as efficient as they usually are. For the time being, I can’t bring myself to fade their offense.
NFL Pick and Prediction: Over 40.5 (-115 at FanDuel)
Washington Commanders vs. Atlanta Falcons Odds
- Spread
Falcons -2.5 - Moneyline
Commanders +118, Falcons -138 - Total
42
Desmond Ridder remains undefeated at home for his football career, and he gets another home game next week against a Washington Commanders team that got embarrassed on Thursday Night Football.
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The props aren’t out yet, but I’ll definitely be eying Drake London’s overs in this one, as this Commanders’ defense can’t stop any talented wide receiver.
For now, I’ll take the Atlanta Falcons giving points.
NFL Pick and Prediction: Falcons -2.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
Carolina Panthers vs. Miami Dolphins Odds
- Spread
Dolphins -14 - Moneyline
Panthers +610, Dolphins -900 - Total
47.5
I was winning on fading the Carolina Panthers’ offense up until this past week when I lost taking the under in their game against the Detroit Lions. Their offense still stinks, but their defense clearly can’t hang with the NFL’s top offenses, and they travel to Miami next week. With the total below a key number of 48, my initial reaction is to take the over.
NFL Pick and Prediction: Over 47.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
Minnesota Vikings vs. Chicago Bears Odds
- Spread
Vikings -3 - Moneyline
Vikings -162, Bears +136 - Total
47.5
Are the Chicago Bears turning a corner after their first win last week, and with Justin Fields having two great games in a row throwing the football? Probably not, but they no longer look like the worst team in football at least.
Jefferson’s status will play a big factor here, but even if I might be buying too high on the Bears after a win on Thursday Night Football, it’s hard not to like a home underdog getting three points against a division rival with the same record at 1-4.
NFL Pick and Prediction: Bears +3 (-102 at FanDuel)
Indianapolis Colts vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Odds
- Spread
Jaguars -5.5 - Moneyline
Colts +194, Jaguars -235 - Total
45.5
The Jacksonville Jaguars are coming off their best win of the season in London and a two-game winning streak in the U.K. Meanwhile, the Indianapolis Colts had an impressive Week 5 win themselves over the Titans.
Even if Richardson isn’t playing, Gardner Minshew II is one of the best backup quarterbacks in the NFL. In relief of Richardson this year, he has won one start and helped the Colts maintain leads in two others.
NFL Pick and Prediction: Lean Colts +5.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
New Orleans Saints vs. Houston Texans Odds
- Spread
Saints -2.5 - Moneyline
Saints -134, Texans +114 - Total
41
The New Orleans Saints shut out the New England Patriots in a 34-0 win this past week; meanwhile, the Houston Texans lost to an indestructible force in Desmond Ridder playing at home. A 34-0 win is impressive no matter how you slice it, but this might be a good sell-high spot for the Saints, considering how bad the Patriots are and how much better C.J. Stroud is than Mac Jones, especially since they’ll be road favorites next week.
NFL Pick and Prediction: Texans +2.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
Seattle Seahawks vs. Cincinnati Bengals Odds
- Spread
Bengals -3 - Moneyline
Seahawks +126, Bengals -148 - Total
45
Are the Cincinnati Bengals back? Joe Burrow had his best game of the young season so far in their 34-20 win over the Arizona Cardinals, throwing for over 300 yards and three TDs, each of them going to Ja’Marr Chase.
The Seattle Seahawks are well rested coming off a bye but might be playing against the Bengals two weeks too late, as Burrow looked far less bothered by his calf injury this past week. Still, is this an overreaction to the Bengals’ win over the Cardinals? Arizona might not be as bad as we expected going into the season, but they’re still far from a good football team and might be coming down to Earth.
NFL Pick and Prediction: Lean Seahawks +3 (-115 at FanDuel)
New England Patriots vs. Las Vegas Raiders Odds
- Spread
Raiders -2.5 - Moneyline
Patriots +114, Raiders -134 - Total
43
Not sure how anyone can back the Patriots right now after they’ve been outscored 72-3 the last two weeks. Yes, that is not a typo. 72-3!
Despite giving up 34 points, the Patriots only allowed 304 yards of total offense. Barring a Maxx Crosby strip sack and a fumble return for a touchdown, I’m not counting on the Las Vegas Raiders’ defense forcing as many takeaways. I don’t trust either of these offenses, so let’s go with the under.
NFL Pick and Prediction: Under 43 (-115 at FanDuel)
Detroit Lions vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Odds
- Spread
Lions -3 - Moneyline
Lions -168, Buccaneers +142 - Total
46
Take out their Week 2 loss to the Seahawks, and the Lions are exceeding even their lofty preseason expectations. Although it was against the winless Panthers, the Lions won by at least two scores for the third week in a row.
While the Tampa Bay Buccaneers look much better than most of us anticipated going into 2023, they have mostly beaten up on bad teams, and when they played against a playoff contender in the Philadelphia Eagles, they were outmatched significantly. The Lions may not be the defending NFC Champions, but they’re one of the NFC’s elite teams.
NFL Pick and Prediction: Lions -3 (-120 at FanDuel)
Arizona Cardinals vs. Los Angeles Rams Odds
- Spread
Rams -6 - Moneyline
Cardinals +220, Rams -270 - Total
46.5
One bright spot in the Los Angeles Rams’ 23-14 loss to the Eagles was that Cooper Kupp looked like his usual self, and pairing him with Puka Nacua gives the Rams one of the best wide receiver duos in the NFL. If there was any doubt about Nacua’s usage with Kupp back in the lineup, it went away pretty quickly.
Going from defending the Eagles’ offense to the Cardinals’ offense will be a much easier task for this Rams defense next week. Although both teams have been overachieving, what we have seen from the Rams looks much more real.
NFL Pick and Prediction: Lean Rams -6 (-110 at FanDuel)
Philadelphia Eagles vs. New York Jets Odds
- Spread
Eagles -6 - Moneyline
Eagles -255, Jets +210 - Total
42
What Super Bowl hangover? Coming off a devastating Super Bowl loss and a few lucky bounces that went their way in the first couple of weeks, everyone has been waiting for the Eagles to eventually lose, but it hasn’t happened yet.
This is a very advantageous matchup for the Eagles defense, as they’re the best at stopping the run, and they feast on bad quarterbacks behind weak offensive lines. But on the other hand, this New York Jets defense might be the best the Eagles will have faced so far this season.
NFL Pick and Prediction: Under 42 (-110 at FanDuel)
New York Giants vs. Buffalo Bills Odds
- Spread
Bills -14.5 - Moneyline
Giants +700, Bills -1100 - Total
45.5
It’s hard to make a pick for this one without knowing if Daniel Jones will be playing, who left the game with a neck injury and didn’t return. Will pass for now and monitor updates on Jones before giving a pick. One thing is for sure, though: I expect the Buffalo Bills to win this one, and it won’t be a sweat; just a matter of by how many points.
NFL Pick and Prediction: Pass (for now)
Dallas Cowboys vs. Los Angeles Chargers Odds
- Spread
Cowboys -2.5 - Moneyline
Cowboys -146, Chargers +124 - Total
47.5
The Kellen Moore revenge game! This should be a home game in Los Angeles for the Dallas Cowboys, but I’m sure the Los Angeles Chargers are used to the lack of a home crowd by now.
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Coming off the bye, there is optimism that Austin Ekeler could return this week, which would be a huge boost for a Chargers offense that will be missing Mike Williams for the remainder of the season.
My initial reaction when looking at these lines is to take the over while it’s below a key number, as both of these teams should have their best playmakers, and this Chargers defense can’t stop anybody. This also could be a good buy low spot for the Cowboys offense after an embarrassing loss on Sunday night.
NFL Pick and Prediction: Over 47.5 (-105 at FanDuel)