In a matchup between two struggling offenses, defense could make the difference. But it’s possible it may be the New Orleans Saints‘ defense that is the difference-maker, not the Bill Belichick-led New England Patriots D. Let’s look at the odds and best bet prediction for today’s game.
Our Betting Lines page has the freshest lines and promos to get BANG for your buck. PFN’s FREE Parlay Calculator and Betting Odds Calculator are also available for your betting process! New to sports betting? Check out our guide on How to Bet on the NFL. Visit our Sports Betting Legal Tracker on how to bet legally in the U.S.
Saints vs. Patriots Betting Lines, Start Time, and More
All odds from DraftKings Sportsbook.
- Spread: Patriots -1
- Moneyline: Saints (-108); Patriots (-112)
- Over/Under: 39
- Game time: 1 p.m. ET
- Location: Gillette Stadium
- Channel: CBS
Saints vs. Patriots Prediction
Neither the Saints nor the Patriots have been impressive offensively to this point in the season. The Saints are averaging less than 300 total yards per game (285.3), while the Patriots replaced their struggling quarterback Mac Jones in the third quarter of its blowout loss to the Dallas Cowboys last week.
So, the storyline then shifts to the defense, and this is where the matchup is tight:
- The Patriots rank 10th in total defense (297.0 ypg), while the Saints rank 11th (304.3).
- The Patriots rank 10th in pass defense (196.0 ypg), while the Saints rank 12th (201.0).
- The Patriots rank 11th in rush defense (101.0 ypg), while the Saints rank 12th (103.3).
The Saints have the edge in scoring defense, allowing just 19.0 points per game (ninth), while the Pats are 21st at 24.3 ppg. The Saints have held three of four opponents under 20 points this season ( their season high in points allowed is 20 vs. the Carolina Panthers in Week 2). If you go back to last season, the Saints have held 12 straight opponents to 20 or fewer points.
MORE: NFL Week 5 Odds and Betting Trends Against the Spread
The Saints’ defense is also tied for fourth in interceptions with five, and their 28 passes defended leads the NFL. The Patriots, meanwhile, have intercepted just one pass all season.
None of this is good news for a Patriots offense that has struggled most of the season. Not only have the Patriots failed to top 20 points in any game this season, but its scoring total has decreased with each game, from 20 vs. the Philadelphia Eagles to 17 vs. the Miami Dolphins, then 15 vs. the New York Jets, and lastly three points vs. the Dallas Cowboys last week.
Belichick looks as though he’s seen enough of Jones. Last week, Belichick replaced his starting QB with Bailey Zappe in the second half, so who knows how long the leash will be for Jones this week. And although Jones had a passer rating under 50 (39.9) for only the third time in his young career last week, the Patriots’ offensive struggles are not all about him.
New England is 28th in yards per carry (3.4) and 23rd in rush offense (93.5 YPG). In three of their four games, the Patriots have been held under 100 yards rushing. The team’s leading rusher, Rhamondre Stevenson, entered this week just 32nd in the league in total rush yards (162).
What New England has going for it is the fact that the Saints’ offense has been just as inept. For example, Derek Carr’s passer rating (80.1) is actually worse than Jones’ (80.8). The Saints also have not gotten a touchdown from its offense in seven quarters. The last time was the first quarter of Week 4 vs. the Green Bay Packers.
Even the return of running back Alvin Kamara did not change much for the Saints’ offense. Kamara led the Saints in rushing but only had 51 yards on the ground. And even though he caught 13 passes, they produced just 33 yards, the fewest receiving yards by any player who had 10 or more receptions in NFL history.
Nothing here screams points, that’s for sure. But someone has to win here, and my pick is the Saints. I would actually take the moneyline in this matchup because the odds are better than if you are getting just a point in the game (-115).
When the line is one and you take the point, you’re basically picking the underdog to win the game anyway. So, why not take the pick with the better odds?
Best Bet: Saints on the moneyline (-108 at DraftKings SportsBook)