The final game of Sunday should be a good one, and there could be some fantasy football matchups that swing at the last second. The Dallas Cowboys’ fantasy outlook revolves around their emerging tight end, while the San Francisco 49ers’ fantasy preview tries to handicap the three-headed monster at WR/TE.
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Dallas Cowboys at San Francisco 49ers
- Spread: 49ers -3.5
- Total: 45
- Cowboys implied points: 20.8
- 49ers implied points: 24.3
Quarterbacks
Dak Prescott: For the second time this season, Prescott played great real-life football (QBR over 80 and a Passer Rating over 105) without greatly impacting our fantasy sphere. Neither Sam Howell nor Jordan Love was especially impressive on tape in Week 4, but guess what? Both out-scored Prescott for fantasy purposes.
The fact that peak Prescott isn’t more than a low-end streamer tells you all you need to know about this offense. Dallas doesn’t want Prescott to put up fantasy numbers, and his 37 passes for a whopping 8.2 fantasy points against San Francisco in their playoff meetings give you an idea of just how sideways this can go.
He’s a reasonably big name because of the city in which he plays, but make no mistake about it: Prescott should, under no circumstances, be on your radar this weekend.
Brock Purdy: With multiple passing touchdowns or a rushing score in all four games this season, Purdy has sustained the appealing fantasy floor that he showcased late last season.
That said, he has completed more than 20 passes just once this season and lacks the volume base that I need when facing an elite defense like that of Dallas. Even with a few of the usual suspects out on bye this week, Purdy is more of a streamer than someone I feel comfortable with. He threw for just 214 yards with no scores in the playoff meeting and is on the outside looking in at my top 12 this week, ranking in the Jordan Love/C.J. Stroud tier.
Running Backs
Tony Pollard: He hasn’t scored in three straight games after punching in two TDs against the Giants in the season opener, but his 374-touch pace is a role that keeps him inside of my top five at the position for the rest of the season. He should be well rested after a rare low usage week in the blowout of New England and is a lineup lock.
In fact, I wouldn’t blame you if you wanted to site the consecutive so-so finishes and leverage a tough Week 5 matchup to potentially pry Pollard away in a trade/That’s not to say his value is low right now; I just think it’s set to spike sooner or later, and I like to see you guys build super teams!
If you need fuel in those negotiations, tell your trade partner that Pollard/Ezekiel Elliott managed just 48 yards on 16 carries last winter in this matchup. If they are desperate, maybe they overreact.
Christian McCaffrey: Not that you needed a reminder that CMC is a cheat code, but he gave you one last week with 177 yards and four touchdowns against the Cardinals.
It was his third game this season with 100 rush yards, a rush touchdown, and at least three catches.
Christian McCaffrey recorded his highest rushing success rate (55.0%) in a game since joining the 49ers.
McCaffrey gained +17 YAC over expected on his 7 receptions. He leads all running backs in YACOE since 2022 (+219).#AZvsSF | #FTTB pic.twitter.com/pKwUljUgwp
— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) October 2, 2023
There will be more than a few top-10 fantasy backs that don’t have three games like that this season, and he’s done it in the first month. He checks every box and is dominating the position in a similar fashion to what we’ve seen Travis Kelce do at the TE position in recent years.
He turned 16 touches into just 57 yards against the Cowboys last season, but he scored and returned fine fantasy numbers in a day in which he was bottled up.
Elijah Mitchell: On Thursday of last week, Mitchell suffered a knee injury at practice, and that resulted in him sitting out the easy win over the Cardinals. There are no indications that this injury is a long-term concern, though the dream of standalone value behind McCaffrey is nothing but a pipe dream.
Go ahead and roster Mitchell (he did carry 14 times for 51 yards against Dallas last season); just understand that he won’t be on my Flex radar as long as McCaffrey is fully healthy.
Wide Receivers
CeeDee Lamb: I was asked on the PFN Fantasy YouTube Channel (I’m on there taking questions every Tuesday at 1:00 p.m. ET and every Sunday at noon) if I would trade Puka Nacua for Lamb. The point of the question was centered around the Rams’ situation with Kupp likely to return sooner than later, but the disrespect to Lamb caught me a bit off guard.
I understand not wanting to invest heavily in this Dallas pass game, and I’m fully on board with that sentiment. You can be out on this aerial attack and still be in on Lamb as a lock top-10 receiver. He has a touchdown or a 30-yard grab in 10 straight games and is the type of talent that can thrive in any situation/matchup.
Of course, this isn’t a perfect matchup, and I’m not sure the Cowboys score 20 points, but Lamb and Pollard should be started with confidence every single week. Want proof? All you have to do is look at this meeting last postseason. Lamb’s rates in that game, per the Week 5 Cheat Sheet:
- 35.1% of Prescott targets
- 43.5% of Prescott completions
- 56.8% of Dallas’ receiving yards
He is a WR1 staple in my ranks and a dynasty building block. No questions asked.
Brandin Cooks: Without a 30-yard performance or a top-60 week on his résumé this season, you can stop waiting on Cooks to prove worthy of a roster spot. I’m not 100% sure that this offense is capable of supporting a consistent second pass-catching option, and even if I am wrong with that, Cooks might be the fourth option. Many leagues have shallow benches – there are better options on your wire.
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Michael Gallup: After totaling just two catches on four targets through two weeks, Gallup has caught 11 balls on 13 targets in consecutive top-40 finishes. The recent production is encouraging, though I expect it to come to an end in a matchup against the best defense in football.
If you’re stuck due to bye weeks, Gallup is the WR2 I want in this offense, but I’d be more likely to roll the dice on your favorite secondary Packer receiver or play everyone’s favorite game of pick-a-Chief at the WR position.
Deebo Samuel: A ribs injury kept him sidelined at practice all week, and it showed in the game. Despite pacing 49er receivers in both snaps (48) and routes (20), Samuel didn’t earn a single target, and his three carries did virtually no damage (six yards).
His practice status is something to track as kickoff approaches — not because I’m worried about him gutting it out, but a limited version of him against this Cowboys defense is asking for trouble. Of course, if he is close to full strength, he’s in your lineup – over 100 total yards and a touchdown in each of the two games prior to Week 4’s dud.
Brandon Aiyuk: It was pretty clear that Samuel wasn’t right last week, and that allowed Aiyuk to produce top-10 fantasy numbers for the second time in three games. I’m comfortable playing Aiyuk regardless of the reports around Samuel, though his floor certainly rises if his versatile teammate is again hampered.
You guys know the drill. The second you feel like you have a beat on this 49ers pass-catching core, they take the rug out from under you. Aiyuk caught just two passes for 26 yards against Dallas in the playoff win, giving us a picture of what the floor could be if Samuel is 100% healthy. I’m not betting on that being the case, but we’ve seen this offense pivot before, and we know it’s coming with time.
Tight Ends
Jake Ferguson: This preseason, we figured one of the receivers would step into a consistent role alongside Lamb, but it’s been Ferguson earning targets at a high rate (seven targets or a touchdown in all four games this season). I’ve looked at all of the metrics, trying to poke holes in having him locked in as a top-12 tight end both this week and the rest of the way — no luck.
MORE: PFN Consensus Rankings
The way in which he is being used passes the smell test at a position where any level of consistent opportunity makes you of interest. If you were streaming tight ends this season and landed on Ferguson, I think you’ve found your answer. This isn’t a great matchup, though we did see 10 targets thrown the way of Ertz in this matchup last season.
George Kittle: Remember a minute ago when I was discussing the nature of his 49ers passing game? Kittle was an afterthought against the Rams in Week 2, a featured piece in Week 3 against the Giants, and then again a no-show against the Cardinals last week.
He has one finish better than TE27 this season, and yet, because there is so much fragility at the TE position outside of the top six, I’m not sure how you could possibly feel good in benching Kittle. His upside is matched by three players at the position, and that fact alone keeps him as a must-start every week – even if there are some infuriating results.
Should You Start Michael Gallup or Michael Wilson?
Gallup certainly is performing like the WR2 in Dallas, but we are talking about an offense that wants to build around the running game and affords Dak Prescott very few chances to make the big play.
In Arizona, Wilson is seeing his role increase, and his profile is that of a high-upside player. I view the floor for these two as similar, so give me the upside that the rookie showcased last week as the deciding factor.
Should You Start Brock Purdy or C.J. Stroud?
I lean toward Stroud here despite Purdy continuing to prove that his success last season was anything but a fluke. The reason? The Texans want to push Stroud to his limits to encourage growth, while the 49ers simply want to win football games.
Stroud should hold a pretty significant edge in both opponent and overall volume, two things I look for when making a decision like this to round out my starting lineup.