Divisional matchups are always a good watch, but the recent meetings between these two have been anything but friendly to fantasy football managers. Does that change with a Baltimore Ravens‘ fantasy outlook that is centered around their backfield? How about a Pittsburgh Steelers‘ fantasy preview that takes a look at a pair of players who have underachieved based on preseason expectations?
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Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers
- Spread: Ravens -4
- Total: 38.5
- Ravens implied points: 21.3
- Steelers implied points: 17.3
Quarterbacks
Lamar Jackson: He has completed over 70% of his passes in every game this season, a nod to the creativity of Todd Monken, and has multiple rushing scores in consecutive weeks. Jackson should be considered a real threat to lead that second tier of signal-caller in fantasy points this season, and a matchup against a Steelers defense that gave up 451 yards to the Texans last week doesn’t scare me in the least.
Kenny Pickett: Pickett suffered a knee injury last week during the blowout loss in Houston and is expected to miss some time (Pittsburgh goes on bye next week) starting with this divisional showdown.
Pickett has yet to take the fantasy-friendly steps that we had hoped for this season and, thus, doesn’t matter in single-QB leagues. In two-quarterback/Superflex leagues, the talent around him made him a low-end option, but with this news, cutting ties is plenty reasonable.
The Steelers play on Thursday night in Week 9, giving them an extended week of preparation heading into Week 10, making that a potential target for his return. If that were to play out, he’d return for a pair of games against top-12 defenses in terms of yards per pass allowed.
We lack clarity on a timeline, and the schedule stiffens in a month’s time — you’re better off getting a healthy body for the short term than you are holding out hope on Pickett.
Mitchell Trubisky: The former first-round pick has thrown just 193 passes since the beginning of 2021 and has more interceptions (six) than touchdowns (four) over that stretch. He will make his first start of 2023 against the best pass defense in terms of yards per attempt through the first month, making him of no use to fantasy managers and raising serious questions about all pieces of this offense that do matter.
Running Backs
Gus Edwards: The leader of the Ravens backfield has seen his carry count increase each week this season, and he even saw his first three targets of the season in the blowout win over the Browns last week. That’s the good. The bad is that he is yet to clear 62 yards from scrimmage and that Monken has been designing runs for Jackson in the red zone.
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He easily held the snap edge over Justice Hill and Melvin Gordon III last week, something I expect to continue, and that’s enough to give him Flex appeal. You’re plugging him in to provide a floor and looking elsewhere for the upside.
Justice Hill and Melvin Gordon III: Neither excels in the passing game, Edwards’ greatest deficiency, and there simply aren’t enough carries to go around to give them any value. The fact that these two are splitting snaps right now tells me that the depth chart is fluid, and that makes neither worth rostering, as an injury to Edwards wouldn’t elevate either into the starting conversation.
Najee Harris: He posted his first top-30 finish of the season last week with 103 yards on 15 touches, though my concerns remain. He was once viewed as a three-down back who was capable of doing it all, but with four catches in four games, those days appear to be gone. He’s been an underwhelming fantasy option through one month, and that is with him picking up chunk gains at a rate that far exceeds his career rate.
With his volume down from years past, if/when those big plays dry up, Harris will be riding fantasy benches. For now, however, he is a fine Flex play who was able to provide value in both matchups against the Ravens last season.
Jaylen Warren: There is no shortage of committees in the NFL today, but it’s pretty rare for two backs on the same team to play the exact same number of snaps and run the exact same number of routes. Well, that’s what happened in this annoying backfield last week, hinting that we are not close to gaining clarity.
Warren, in my opinion, has the inside track due to the team’s confidence in him as a pass catcher (10 more catches than Harris has targets this season), but that’s a dangerous role to invest in with Trubisky under center. Harris is a strong Flex play, while Warren is more of an “if stuck” Flex option this week.
Wide Receivers
Zay Flowers: While I will admit that Flowers passes the eye test, the fact that he has not been a top-40 fantasy receiver since making his NFL debut is a concern. I maintain my stance that he is a great fit for this specific offense, and I’d be looking to acquire him sooner rather than later.
Most Targets without a TD yet:
(41) Ja’Marr Chase
(38) Chris Olave
(30) Zach Ertz
(29) Michael Thomas
(28) Zay FlowersAll of them are SO DUE
— Alex Caruso (@AlexCaruso) October 3, 2023
The receiver position thins out after the top 20 this week, and that allows the rookie to grade out as a top-30 play for me, who is more valuable in a full-PPR setting. I expect the Ravens to be able to move the ball in this spot, and that is why I have Flowers ranked as my favorite receiver in this game.
Odell Beckham Jr.: The veteran receiver is closing in on his 31st birthday and hasn’t played since injuring his ankle in the Week 2 win against the Bengals. While there were some signs of them wanting to get him involved in that game, this is currently a low aDOT offense that wants to strike fast, a style that really isn’t built for Beckham to thrive in.
Could he have a big week here and there? Sure, but the level of predictability is low, and that is assuming full health. Right now, you need not worry about the one-time electric talent — you can find more upside with the same risk profile elsewhere.
Diontae Johnson: A hamstring injury landed Johnson on IR after the Week 1 loss against the 49ers, meaning he will be eligible to return to action next week at the earliest. Anything can happen between now and then, but with Johnson considering himself day-to-day heading into Week 2, it would stand to reason that the veteran receiver will be ready to roll when Pittsburgh comes out of their Week 6 bye to face the Rams in Los Angeles.
George Pickens: No one is arguing that the Ravens have faced the stiffest competition through four weeks, but their ability to shut down the top receiving option has been impressive, per the Week 5 Cheat Sheet.
- Week 1: Nico Collins averaged 7.3 yards per target
- Week 2: Ja’Marr Chase, 3.9
- Week 3: Michael Pittman, 7.0
- Week 4: Amari Cooper, 2.7
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In total, that works out to 5.7 yards per target, a rate that is 35.2% below Pickens’ rate thus far in 2023. That makes him a touchdown-dependent option in an offense with a sub-20-point projection. Pickens has one-play potential if you don’t have better options, but even without plenty of WR talent on bye this week, Pickens isn’t a top-30 option for me.
Tight Ends
Mark Andrews: There should never be a concern about starting Andrews, but this looks like the true DFS spot. I don’t have to convince you that he is the clear top target in this offense (ran a route on 57.5% of Week 4 snaps; they want him challenging the middle of the field), and players with that role have destroyed the Steelers this season:
- Week 1: Brandon Aiyuk (eight catches, 129 yards, two TDs)
- Week 2: Amari Cooper (7-90-0)
- Week 3: Davante Adams (13-172-2)
- Week 4: Nico Collins (7-168-2)
The argument for Andrews is the inverse of the Pickens case: Pittsburgh can’t stop the primary aerial threat. Travis Kelce and T.J. Hockenson play each other in a game I expect to garner plenty of DFS eyes, but Andrews, in my opinion, is the better production per dollar option.
Pat Freiermuth: I think Trubisky hurts this offense as a whole, but I actually believe Freiermuth is somewhat immune to that should he return to action before Pickett (projected timetable: 2-3 weeks). He was on the field for over 92% of the Week 4 snaps prior to suffering the hamstring injury, and I’d expect a similar usage level when he returns in a much less aggressive offense under Trubisky.
That said, the only thing worse than having to roster one tight end is rostering two. You have the Soppe stamp of approval to cut ties here while Freiermuth is on the shelf.
Should You Start Zay Flowers or Gabe Davis?
I lean Flowers in this spot. Yes, I’m aware that Davis has matched a career-best streak with a TD in three straight, but with under five targets in three of four games, the floor is worrisome, to say the least.
Flowers benefits from a quick-hitting passing game that I expect to be clicking against an aggressive Steelers defense. I have Flowers for 3-4 more catches than Davis this week, and while Davis’ per-catch numbers far exceed those of Flowers, the downside is low enough for me to take the “safer” option in this spot.
Should You Start George Pickens or Jordan Addison?
I go Addison here, though I would love to see him distance himself from K.J. Osborn sooner rather than later. The rookie has proven capable of the big play and gets a bump for the expected flow of this game against the Chiefs.
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Pickens, on the other hand, is playing in a game with a sub-40 point total and has questions under center. On a good week, Pickens offers a wide range of outcomes, so I fear with the QB issues, we see more of the floor production than the special ceiling. Both of these receivers come with risk — I’ll side with the offense I trust to move the ball more this week.