This Miami Dolphins fantasy football preview takes a look at what you can expect out of the most potent offense in the league. While the New York Giants’ fantasy evaluation is a little less robust, it makes for some tough decisions.
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New York Giants at Miami Dolphins
- Spread: Dolphins -11
- Total: 49.5
- Giants implied points: 19.3
- Dolphins implied points: 30.3
Quarterbacks
Daniel Jones: Without a 25-yard gain (either by way of completion or run) or a touchdown in three of four games this season, the breakout 2022 season feels like it was 10 years ago rather than 10 months. His athleticism gives him a unique throughway to productive numbers, but until further notice, he is a part of the quarterback tier that extends down to the Sam Howells of the world.
Jones shouldn’t be rostered in standard formats and will float around my QB15 on a weekly basis.
Tua Tagovailoa: For the second time in three weeks, Tagovailoa failed to clear 15 fantasy points despite favorable efficiency metrics. He has completed at least 70% of his passes in three straight games and has yet to average under 8.0 yards per attempt in a game this season.
MORE: Tua Tagovailoa Should Shred the Giants
The lack of mobility leaves you without the added safety net that so many signal callers in this era have, but in a plus-matchup with a healthy Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle — you’re locking in Tagovailoa in all formats.
Running Backs
Saquon Barkley (Update): Barkley has been ruled OUT for the Giants game against the Dolphins.
Barkley’s health remains in question, but the decision for fantasy managers is certain: play him if the Giants play him and sit him if he sits. Even if you want to assume the ankle injury limits him to some degree, anything close to the 16 PPG he averaged in the first two weeks is lineup-worthy.
Matt Breida: Real friends don’t let friends start non-Barkley Giants running backs. Breida has 21 carries this season, yet he and I are in a race to see who will record the first 10-yard carry. Move on.
Raheem Mostert: So you mean a Dolphins running back with consecutive top-five finishes at the position isn’t bulletproof? I’ll lay out the De’Von Achane numbers in a second, but first, we had to address the seven-carry, nine-yard egg that Mostert laid last week in Buffalo.
The running game got scripted out of the 28-point loss, which made producing viable fantasy numbers an uphill battle. As bad as the box score was, Mostert saw 5+ targets for the second consecutive game and delivered a chunk play for the third straight contest.
While it’s unlikely that Mostert gets written out of this offense, the development of Achane limits Mostert’s market share of this offense. Moving forward, both he and Achane are in a similar light: big-play threats that can produce points but carry a low floor due to workload limitations.
MORE: Fantasy News Tracker
Both Miami RBs are fine RB2s for me against a Giants defense on a short week.
De’Von Achane: Wrong wrong wrong. I’ll fully admit that I was on my regression soapbox last week, and if you followed my lead, you left 25.5 fantasy points on your bench and may have lost as a result. I apologize.
If it makes you feel any better, I have Mostert in more than a few spots, and he was benched in all of them. Pain.
Saying Devon Achane is fast is an understatement.
— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) August 19, 2023
Is it possible to admit that Achane is the real deal AND that his performance is simply ludicrous? Of course, it is, and I’d argue that is the only logical way to approach this situation. I mean, per the Week 5 Cheat Sheet…
- 1991 Barry Sanders: 0.80 points per touch
- 2005 Shaun Alexander: 0.96
- 2019 Christian McCaffrey: 1.02
- 2003 Priest Holmes: 1.06
- 2006 LaDainian Tomlinson: 1.10
- 2023 De’Von Achane: 1.83
With the rookie out-snapping Mostert 39-28 against the Bills (28-16 in routes run), things are clearly trending in a positive direction. That puts him as an RB2 in my Week 5 rankings. It’s perfectly fine to be excited by what you’ve seen from Achane. It’s also perfectly fine to fade my concerns. I just worry that the touch volume lacks enough upside to balance the inevitable decline of per-touch production.
Jeff Wilson Jr.: Wilson is eligible to come off IR this week, and while this current Miami run game needs no help, there’s a chance he gets some carries if healthy. Wilson has yet to prove himself capable of sustaining significant volume, but he did average a career-high 4.9 yards per carry last season (split between SF and MIA).
Wilson shouldn’t be rostered in anything but the deepest of leagues where you’re betting on Mostert to miss time.
Wide Receivers
Wan’Dale Robinson: He has caught nine of 11 targets this season, surprising efficiency in an inefficient offense. That said, we are still in wait-and-see mode here. Could he be a PPR filler over time if healthy? It’s possible, but no need to act fast. Track his usage as bye weeks approach and injuries pile up. He’s not a top-50 receiver for me in Week 5.
MORE: PFN Consensus Rankings
Darius Slayton, Isaiah Hodgins, and Jalin Hyatt: None of these receivers saw more than three targets during the blowout loss to Seattle on Monday night. While there is per-catch upside if any of them get loose downfield, that is a big if. And by “big if,” I mean it’s impossible to project or expect. This receiver room doesn’t have an option you can count on, and the upside isn’t worth chasing until we see this offensive line give Jones some time to throw.
Tyreek Hill: Just like we expected, in the potential shootout game of the season, Braxton Berrios, who ran just 20 routes, led the Dolphins in targets. Hill now has a pair of games with over 150 yards and a pair under 60.
That sort of risk/reward profile isn’t fun to deal with on the down weeks, but the week-deciding ceiling potential makes his spot on your roster similar to marriage: you’ll remember the great times, but you’ll have to deal with the lows.
Jaylen Waddle: OK, so Week 4 was wonky. And by “wonky,” I mean the Dolphins allowed more sacks (four) than touchdowns they scored (three), something that seemed impossible through the first three weeks (17 touchdowns and one sack). So, of course, I think better days are ahead of Waddle (four catches for 46 yards) — he’s a top-15 option this week.
That said, did you know that since last Halloween, Waddle doesn’t have a game with more than five catches? Not one. We are also amidst a six-game scoreless stretch for the versatile receiver. Those are just facts. I’m not worried yet, but these trends deserve our attention.
If those numbers scare you, at least wait another two weeks before making a move. After hosting the Giants and Panthers, the Dolphins get the Eagles, Patriots, and Chiefs before going on bye.
Tight Ends
Darren Waller: I understand the frustration with rostering Waller, but there is no escaping him. You can’t trade him for pennies on the dollar, and holding multiple tight ends is rarely a wise use of roster space, which makes benching him unwise. He has only one top-20 finish on his 2023 résumé, but the TE position is littered with downside that lack the role clarity of Waller. He’s my TE8 this week — hang in there.
Defense/Special Teams
Dolphins D/ST: This unit is available in some leagues, and they are my clear top streaming option this week. The Giants gave up 10 sacks last week and turned the ball over three times, things that could easily happen again if they are forced to keep up with the high-flying ‘Fins.
The Miami defense was torched last week in Buffalo, but they had scored 17 fantasy points over the two weeks prior and have multiple turnovers or multiple sacks in every game this season.
Should You Start Darren Waller or Cole Kmet?
This Waller start to the season has been brutal, and Monday night certainly didn’t leave me feeling great about the state of this offense as a whole. That said, he is still the top option in an offense led by a creative offensive mind, and at the TE position, that’s enough to make you a top-10 play most weeks.
I understand that Kmet went off against the Broncos last week (seven catches for 85 yards and two scores), but that was his first game north of 45 yards this season. I want to believe that this Chicago passing attack has turned a corner. But let’s see it for consecutive weeks before elevating Kmet into the top 12. Waller is the play here (fingers crossed)!
Should You Start De’Von Achane or Isiah Pacheco?
Achane has been nothing short of amazing to open his career, averaging over 1.8 half-PPR fantasy points per touch in the process. No one can deny that. Him sustaining that pace is obviously a long shot, and without a strong volume base, I worry about what the floor looks like.
Pacheco, on the other hand, plays for an equally explosive offense and is seeing his volume and versatility tick up. That’s the type of profile I want to bet on and will do so in this spot. I have both ranked as RB2s to be started in nearly all situations, but I’m siding with the volume in a question like this that involves two very talented backs on elite offenses.