Is Derrick Henry back? Fantasy football managers certainly hope so, and he is the center of the Tennessee Titans‘ fantasy preview this week. On the other side, Michael Pittman Jr. drives the look-ahead analysis for the Indianapolis Colts’ fantasy options.
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Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts
- Spread: Colts -1
- Total: 42.5
- Titans implied points: 20.8
- Colts implied points: 21.8
Quarterbacks
Anthony Richardson: The first quarterback in NFL history with a rush TD in each of his first three games is ready to be considered a set-it-and-forget-it fantasy option. The physical profile is a cheat code and that will allow him to pay off for us while he develops as a passer.
Is there risk involved on a weekly basis? There is. His athleticism puts him in harm’s way, and the 56.9% completion rate is certainly ugly. For Week 5, however, he gets to take on a leaky Tennessee Titans secondary that could allow him to experience a true ceiling week. If you rolled the dice on Richardson this summer, you’ve positioned yourself to make a deep run this winter!
Running Backs
Derrick Henry: We got a Tim Tebow jump pass to go along with 133 yards from scrimmage and a touchdown in a performance that Henry managers needed to see after a slow start to the season.
I’m not sure our concerns from the first three games are completely gone — this offense as a whole is still questionable at best — but you can feel safe about considering him an RB1 against an Indianapolis Colts team that he piled up over 110 rushing yards and three catches in both meetings a season ago.
MORE: PFN Consensus Rankings
Remember why you liked him so much this summer…
- Week 15 vs. HOU
- Week 16 vs. SEA
- Week 17 at HOU
- Week 18 vs. JAX
Assuming health, it is very possible that his best production this season comes when fantasy football managers need it most.
Tyjae Spears: Even during a breakout Henry game, Spears was on the field for 35 snaps and ran 17 routes. He’s getting the opportunity to learn on the fly and has exactly four targets in three of four games, but there really is no path to viable fantasy value sans an injury to The Big Dog. Roster him as depth; just make sure that you don’t have the illusion of the rookie returning much else.
Jonathan Taylor: The idea of whether you should trade Jonathan Taylor in fantasy football is an interesting dynamic that I tackled earlier this week, and it’s more a question of situation than anything else.
None of us have inside sources or have any idea exactly how this situation is going to play out, making this a risk analysis situation. Until otherwise noted, I’m operating under the assumption that Zack Moss is the man in this backfield, but don’t take that to mean I’m not interested in Taylor at the right price.
Zack Moss: Was last week against the Rams a thing of beauty? No, but until the volume dries up (if it does), Moss deserves to be considered a lineup lock who can flirt with RB1 status in the right spot. This isn’t one of those spots (Tennessee is allowing a league-low 2.9 yards per carry), but the 20-touch role that he owns is nearly impossible to find outside of the elite.
I’m more encouraged by the two top-10 performances that he had prior to his down in Week 4. The Taylor cloud looms, but until we have proof that he is willing to step onto the field as an Indianapolis Colt this season, I’m operating under the assumption that Moss is not being pushed for work (53-10 snap edge over Trey Sermon in Week 4).
Trey Sermon: The former third-round pick has been used to spell Moss through two weeks as opposed to complement him. This isn’t a committee, and this offense isn’t nearly strong enough for you to be holding an insurance policy on Moss, so feel free to look just about anywhere else for roster depth.
Wide Receivers
DeAndre Hopkins: As the veteran continues to battle through an ankle injury (fourth on this team in targets last week), I’m not sure how you can possibly feel comfortable in continuing to roll him out in your starting lineup. He caught four balls for 63 yards last week — I felt like he overachieved. Nuk hasn’t been better than WR40 in any of the past three weeks, and he’s again outside of my Flex ranks.
To put some context around him, I have him ranked behind another “good player in a bad spot” receiver in Drake London, and he’s not far from being passed by Arizona Cardinals rookie Michael Wilson.
Treylon Burks: A knee injury kept Burks sidelined for last week’s game, and his status for this week could well come down to the wire, but it shouldn’t matter for you. He has been held under four fantasy points in two of three games and saw more targets than yards gained the last time we saw him (Week 3 at CLE). The ceiling for the WR2 in this offense is so limited that cutting Burks is a reasonable move, even if you’re just throwing a dart on a guy like Marvin Mims.
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Nick Westbrook-Ikhine filled in admirably for Burks last weekend with five grabs for 51 yards and a score. Good for him. There’s nothing to see here. This offense can’t consistently support a single pass catcher, so I’m not allocating roster space for anyone behind Hopkins.
Michael Pittman Jr.: Pittman is turning into something of the Brock Purdy of the receiver position. That is, you kind of know what you’re getting weekly (sans last week), and while there is some value in it, it’s not enough to put you significantly ahead of your competition.
Despite ranking 10th in the NFL in receptions through the first month, Pittman’s next weekly finish better than WR29 will be just his second of the season per the Week 5 Cheat Sheet. He was locked down last week (five targets, 15 yards), and that was a problem for him in 2022 against the Titans (15 targets for 89 yards across two games).
I still can't believe Michael Pittman Jr. held on that football.
Catch of the year. 💯 pic.twitter.com/ztuG4arLa9
— Indy SportsOne (@IndySportsOne) September 24, 2023
I’m worried long-term about Pittman’s lack of a ceiling, but those worries are not impacting my Week 5 ranking of him as a top-20 option against a registered pass funnel. I suspect Indy puts the ball in Richardson’s hands to win this game, and with Pittman commanding 28.7% of the targets, he should be locked and loaded into all lineups.
Josh Downs: The rookie was able to shake loose for 12 targets in Week 3 with Gardner Minshew II under center and did haul in the longest catch of his career last weekend against the Rams (30 yards), but with his sub-6.0 yards per target average this season, there simply isn’t enough meat on this bone.
If you want to hold Downs in a deep bench situation, I’m OK with it, given that Richardson’s development could make him a name to watch with time, but in standard leagues, he doesn’t need to be held on to.
Tight Ends
Chigoziem Okonkwo: Does this team need a secondary pass catcher to step up? They sure do, but until we see signs of life from Okonkwo (yet to finish a week better than TE25) to suggest that his strong finish to last season was anything more than a flash in the pan, there is no reason for you to look this direction.
Should You Start DeAndre Hopkins or Marquise Brown?
At this moment, Hopkins is nothing but name value. The ability to earn targets is great, but when those targets come with little potential tied to them, even a playmaker like Nuk can only do so much.
That’s not to say that I’m supremely confident in Arizona’s passing attack, but Joshua Dobbs has supported Brown clearing 13 fantasy points in each of the past three weeks. I’m not sure that continues, but I do think he does enough to pay off fantasy managers plugging him in over the future Hall of Famer.
Should You Start Michael Pittman or Nico Collins?
I’ve had this as a close call for a few weeks now, and I’ve been letting the matchup dictate the direction I go. We know Pittman is a target vacuum, and we know the Titans are a mess when it comes to defending the pass, so I have him ranked as a top-15 play with the potential to outproduce even that optimistic projection.
MORE: Best WR Matchups in Fantasy for Week 5
Collins, for me, is the clear WR1 in Houston and that’s a top-24 option moving forward. That said, I do worry about sheer possession count in this game, and while I like Collins, there is no denying that he has more target competition than Pittman does. I’m playing both if I can, but if I’m forced to choose, I like the spot for Pittman more this weekend.