Fantasy football points come in bunches when the Detroit Lions play at home, which they will on Sunday. This Carolina Panthers fantasy preview looks to sort out the now confusing backfield, while the Lions’ fantasy outlook hinges on the value of Jared Goff.
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Carolina Panthers at Detroit Lions
- Spread: Lions -9.5
- Total: 44.5
- Panthers implied points: 17.5
- Lions implied points: 27
Quarterbacks
Bryce Young: On the bright side, Young completed a career-high 25 passes last week against the Vikings. On the downside, it required an unsustainable time of possession number against a bad defense, and it didn’t include a touchdown.
Young is very much a work in progress on a team devoid of young talent. He funneled over 58% of his targets last week to Adam Thielen or Terrace Marshall Jr. — not exactly a formula I’m comfortable banking on in any format.
Jared Goff: “The poor man’s Matt Ryan” has a pair of games with at least 19 points and two games under 15 — care to guess the location of the two good games?
I’ll ask plenty of difficult questions throughout this piece. This, however, isn’t one of them. Of course, they came at home because that’s what Goff does. I don’t get it, but I can’t deny it. Does playing indoors really make that much of a difference, even though the conditions last week at Lambeau were pristine?
Whatever the cause is, I really don’t care. Goff is at home with extra prep time this week for a Panthers defense that scares no one (37 points and 425 yards allowed in their last road game).
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He is working on a 15-game streak with over 300 passing yards or accounting for multiple touchdowns, a run that I don’t think ends this week. Thus, I have him safely inside of my top 12 this week.
If you’re not buying the home/road thing, Goff lit up the Panthers for 355 yards and three scores in Carolina last season!
Running Backs
Miles Sanders: In a close game against the Vikings, Chuba Hubbard out-snapped Sanders 38-32 (out-carried 14-13) last week. This could very well be a problem for a running back in Sanders, who has just one top-20 finish to his name this season. But I’m giving him this week to re-establish his spot atop the depth chart.
Why? Well, the Panthers saw their two primary backs run for 290 yards and a score in this matchup last season — get access to that ceiling should Sanders assume the lead role.
I cautiously still have him ranked as a low-end RB2 in the James Conner range of boring running backs. Admittedly, he is hanging onto that status by a thread.
David Montgomery: Remember seven whole days ago when we wondered aloud if Montgomery was a worthwhile play coming off of a missed game against a reasonably good Packers defense?
Yeah, turns out he was just fine. And by “just fine,” I mean spectacular. He dominated to the tune of 141 yards and three touchdowns in the convincing win, confirming that he is the volume king in this backfield. He is averaging 23 carries per game and has punched in a score in each contest, a role that has him labeled as a must-start.
David Montgomery has 30 more carries than Jahmyr Gibbs in one fewer game played.
Should Gibbs be getting more touches? 🤔 pic.twitter.com/CBgybpFDRQ
— ESPN Fantasy Sports (@ESPNFantasy) October 4, 2023
Do I have my long-term concerns about his ability to hold up and his touchdown reliance to maintain his current value (under four yards per carry for the fourth time in five seasons)? I do, but that’s a topic for a different article.
If you have him, you’re playing him, as his 53-28 snap edge over Jahmyr Gibbs in his return to action further proved his alpha status in this backfield.
Jahmyr Gibbs: Is he rookie Alvin Kamara without the perfect quarterback/head coach combination? Kamara, in 2017, didn’t have more than 12 carries in a single game, but thanks to an absolutely ideal situation, he was a strong fantasy asset. In that vein, Gibbs ran a route on 50% of his Week 4 snaps compared to Montgomery’s rate of 30.2%.
Goff isn’t Drew Brees, and Dan Campbell isn’t Sean Payton. Gibbs has 16 targets against 22 rush attempts in the three games he has played alongside Montgomery, and without the elite scheming that Kamara had, that’s a tough way to make a fantasy living.
His next catch gaining more than 10 yards will be his first.
Now, he did get 18 touches in the game Montgomery missed, so there is some potential for spot value if this workload wears down Detroit’s feature back. However, barring that, Gibbs simply cannot be trusted in lineups at the moment.
He needs to remain rostered, however, because he is the clear-cut second option, and there is always the potential that a rookie finds his niche (or the offense adjusts to his strengths) with time. If you can get him on the cheap, I would, with the understanding that you’re adding depth more than anything.
Wide Receivers
Adam Thielen: That’s now three consecutive games with at least seven catches for the veteran, something he hadn’t done since October of 2018. The passing game is capped by what the team is willing to put on the plate of Young, though, per the Week 5 Cheat Sheet, the growth from the rookie has been encouraging:
- Game 1: 52.6% compilation rate
- Game 2: 66.7%
- Game 3: 78.1%
If the accuracy is here to stay, Thielen will be a viable Flex option in PPR leagues.
DJ Moore earned a 33.3% target share when the Panthers played the Lions last season, giving us hope that they can scheme Thielen open. Right now, he’s ranked WR35, understanding that the volume is nice but that the per-target upside is limited, to say the least.
DJ Chark: Last week was the big revenge week, but there are a few on the board this weekend, and Chark checks that box. In this matchup last season, Chark, as a Lion, racked up 108 yards, a level of success that seems highly unlikely in an offense that has allowed him to produce just 129 yards in three games.
In Week 4, with Jonathan Mingo sidelined, Chark earned just 9.7% of the targets. He doesn’t need to be rostered in any format (his one volume game came when Young sat).
Terrace Marshall Jr.: With Mingo out (concussion), Marshall led the Panthers in catches (nine) and targets (10) but was able to produce only 56 yards. His ability to earn a target on nearly 39% of routes was impressive, but with Mingo expected to return, there’s no reason to chase the PPR points from Week 4.
Amon-Ra St. Brown: He was tying the Packers in knots for the 15 minutes in which last Thursday’s game was competitive but saw little usage as the game wore on and the Lions melted clock. The Sun God is among the highest-floor receivers in the game today, something that four straight games north of 14 fantasy points proves.
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I’m not sure there is a team in the league that has a way to take him away, and with Detroit getting Jameson Williams back, those middle-of-the-field routes are only going to become more reliable.
Jameson Williams: News broke on Friday that the league’s gambling policy had been tweaked, lessening Williams’ punishment from six to four games, thus making him eligible to make his season debut this week.
Through four games this season, Goff’s aDOT is on the low end of average, but the argument could easily be made that such an attack is by design without the speedy Williams on the field. He clearly offers massive per-target upside in an offense that needs not only a field stretcher but also consistent production from a secondary receiver, so make sure to add him.
As far as playing him, I can’t get there. We simply haven’t seen enough proof of concept up to this point, and let’s not forget that he was battling a hamstring injury this summer (just ask Christian Watson managers how they feel about a speed-oriented receiver and soft tissue injuries).
I don’t have Williams ranked as a top-35 receiver this week and doubt that I will at any point in October. That said, in rostering him, you are playing the long game. The Lions certainly seem like the class of this division, and that could mean they are playing largely important games over the final month of the NFL season — when all the chips are in the middle of the table in fantasy leagues.
Building on that, it’s important to note that the Lions end the regular season with back-to-back-to-back-to-back indoor games. I mentioned the indoor numbers for Goff earlier, and playing in a weather-controlled environment certainly won’t hurt the prospects of a receiver like Williams. Stash him now and hope that he rounds into form at the perfect time!
Tight Ends
Hayden Hurst: Seven targets and a touchdown in Week 1 in Atlanta gave us hope that our Rolodex of TE streamers was about to grow by one, but those hopes have since been dashed with just 6.3 fantasy points in the following three games.
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I’m passing on the temptation to plug-and-play him in a game that could see some points scored — his role just isn’t friendly enough to overcome the deficiencies that come with playing for a limited offense.
Sam LaPorta: The rookie tight end has cleared 55 receiving yards in three straight games, and his 81.5% catch rate suggests a very nice connection with Goff. I’ll be interested to see if his target earning declines with Williams in the mix. But I believe the efficiency is here to stay, and that locks him in as a top-10 tight end until otherwise noted.
LaPorta is currently on pace to gain 2.5 more receiving yards as a rookie than Kyle Pitts did during his introduction to the NFL back in 2021.
Should You Start Jared Goff or Joe Burrow?
Goff playing indoors has been a cheat code for over a season now, and with the Panthers coming to town this week, I don’t see any reason why that would change. He has a floor-elevating star receiver along with a stable running game that helps keep defenses honest. Oh yeah, and he happens to be getting Jameson Williams back two weeks early after the league revised their punishments for gambling.
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That’s a lot of positive signs around Detroit’s signal-caller, while Cincinnati’s outlook is less rosy with Tee Higgins battling an injury and Burrow clearly at less than full strength. Once we see a few good games from Burrow, this question will be much closer. Nonetheless, for Week 5, Goff is comfortably ahead in my ranks.
Should You Start Jahmyr Gibbs or Gus Edwards?
As much as Gibbs is talented, it is clear that he is not in a fantasy-friendly role at the moment. Could that flip at any moment? Sure, but until we have something pointing us in that direction, I’m going to assume under 10 carries with limited creativity in his role as a pass catcher because that’s all we’ve seen in the three games in which Montgomery has played.
Edwards isn’t a world-beater by any means, but Baltimore can score this week, and considering that he had 15 carries last week while none of his backfield mates cleared three, that means he will be in a good position to return fantasy production. I have Edwards ranked higher this week due to his projectable volume and scoring equity.