The Chicago Bears and Washington Commanders land on the pitch against one another for a Thursday Night Football game between two of the league’s oldest franchises.
The Bears are primed to receive two of the top picks in the NFL Draft between having their own pick and the Carolina Panthers’ first-rounder. Meanwhile, the Commanders are a PAT vs. two-point conversion decision from being 3-1.
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Chicago Bears vs. Washington Commanders Predictions
The five PFN game selectors were in lock-step on this game, with each one selecting the Commanders to win on Thursday night at home. But yours truly was torn on the decision, yet decided to go with the Commanders because it’s a home Thursday night game.
These teams met in Chicago on Thursday night in Week 6 a season ago. As with most TNF games, it was… ugly. Washington took the road win 12-7.
- Beasley: Commanders
- Bearman: Commanders
- Miller: Commanders
- Morrison: Commanders
- Robinson: Commanders
The Bears Pass Rush Is Problematic… For Themselves
No pass-rushing unit in the NFL has been as predictably underwhelming as the Bears. Trevis Gipson was the team’s best pass rusher over the past few seasons. The team cut ties with him, and he moved to Tennessee… where he rarely sees the field.
Before signing Yannick Ngakoue, Chicago’s roster had absolutely no juice to it. Considering Ngakoue wasn’t signed until August, he really only added a few drops from a Capri-Sun to the unit.
MORE: PFN’s Week 5 NFL Power Rankings
The veteran pass rusher keeps finding himself in less-than-ideal situations, and he’s never been a good run defender. However, Ngakoue’s pass-rush prowess has always been a positive part of his game. The issue is at every stop he has remained an every-down player, and he gets whooped against the run.
The Bears’ 17% pressure rate in 2023 is the second-worst rate in the NFL. Those metrics aren’t sticky from site to site, but their inability to sack opposing quarterbacks is. In 20233, Chicago’s 4% sack rate was the worst in the NFL. Their 10% sack rate on pressures is the worst rate in 2023, and somehow, they’ve yet to sack a QB on third-and-long this season.
Note: All above metrics are courtesy of Inside Edge
Justin Fields and Sam Howell Love Taking Sacks
Justin Fields was sacked on 14% of his passing attempts in 2022, which was the worst among 36 qualifying quarterbacks. Sam Howell has been sacked on 15% of his passing attempts this season, which is the worst in the NFL through four weeks, according to Inside Edge.
The Bears’ scheme — and Fields’ own strengths — do not meld well with the weaknesses they possess on the offensive line. Meanwhile, Howell is simply a young and inexperienced QB who is a bit slow operationally.
Fields is doing a better job at avoiding sacks so far in 2023, but the Commanders’ pass rush is their team’s strength. Fields’ pressure rate (42.5%) is higher than Howell’s (40.6%). But Howell possesses the worst sack rate in the league, while Fields sits lower in sack rate, according to Sports Info Solutions.
The Commanders Struggle With Avoiding Coverage Busts
Fields ranks tied for seventh with 17 attempts of 20 or more air yards so far through four weeks. The Commanders have “defended” against 19 such attempts, meaning this battle is shaping up to produce some potential downfield fireworks.
It’s important to note that Washington has faced Russell Wilson and Jalen Hurts, both of whom play in offenses that lean on verticality in the passing attack. Josh Allen never shies away from downfield attempts, either.
But being beaten by perfect throws and catches hasn’t really been the Commanders’ issue. They simply cannot get on the same page on the back end.
Fields has been good so far downfield in 2023, which shouldn’t be surprising, considering arm talent has never once been a questionable trait for him. He’s posted a 52.9% completion rate (seventh), 75% catchable rate (sixth), and 62.5% on-target rate (fifth).
Meanwhile, the Commanders allow a 52.6% completion rate (24th), 21.6 yards per attempt (28th), 102.5 yards per game (31st), and -1.18 EPA per play (28th).
It’s the Bears’ one strength that could ultimately overwhelm the Commanders if they’re able to avoid folding under the pressure of Washington’s outstanding pass-rushing unit.
